Liam Sullivan
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 24
LHP
6'6" / 255 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%23.3%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 6 | 16 | 72 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 86% | 2.3 | 25.7% | 20.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.96 | 6.01 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 6 | 16 | 72 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 86% | 2.3 | 34.7% | 16.7% | 18.1% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 3.83 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 2 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 4.7 | 40.5% | 11.9% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 1.19 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 2 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 4.7 | 40.5% | 11.9% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 1.06 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 51 | 199 | 64 | 20 | 5 | 93% | 3.4 | 23.0% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 2.49 | 4.38 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 51 | 199 | 64 | 20 | 5 | 93% | 3.4 | 32.2% | 10.1% | 22.1% | 2.5% | 2.49 | 3.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 18 | 11 | 61 | 266 | 70 | 35 | 9 | 61% | 3.4 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.31 | 5.49 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 6 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.41 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 93 | 401 | 101 | 48 | 13 | — | — | 25.3% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 5.00 | 5.12 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 6 | 6 | 32 | 136 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 5 | 5 | 32 | 136 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 5 | 5 | 32 | 134 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 5 | 5 | 31 | 130 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 2 | 2 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 7.0 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 14 | 86 | 362 | 86 | 33 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 3.97 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 77 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 42 | 33 | 137 | 579 | 135 | 86 | 19 | 79% | 3.3 | 23.3% | 14.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.00 | 4.86 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 48 | 200 | 843 | 196 | 126 | 28 | 79% | 3.3 | 23.3% | 14.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.00 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Liam Sullivan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.32 | 23.8% | 14.6% | 96 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 83 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 79 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 79 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 79 |
| Jojo Ingrassia L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 26.7% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 112 | 75 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 75 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 74 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 72 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 71 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 71 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 71 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 70 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 70 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 70 |
| Drake Owenby L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.88 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 140 | 70 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.50 | 24.6% | 11.9% | 1.8% | .326 | 3.21 | 23.9% | 17.4% | 387 | -0.29 | 2.56 | 1,397 | 69 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2029 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 68 |
| Rio Britton L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 68 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.14 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 3.95 | 15.5% | 4.2% | 121 | -1.19 | 3.67 | 288 | 68 |
| Andrew Sears L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 232 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 32 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 1.20 | 4.36 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |