Liam Sullivan — OGILVIE

Liam Sullivan P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 LHP 6'6" / 255 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 124

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%23.1%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	16	72	25	12	2	86%	2.3	25.7%	20.5%	5.2%	4.1%	4.96	5.78	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	16	72	25	12	2	86%	2.3	25.7%	20.5%	5.2%	4.1%	4.96	5.78	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	16	72	25	12	2	86%	2.3	34.7%	16.7%	18.1%	2.8%	4.96	3.83	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	2	9	42	17	5	0	100%	4.7	40.5%	11.9%	28.6%	0.0%	1.93	1.19	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	2	9	42	17	5	0	100%	4.7	40.5%	11.9%	28.6%	0.0%	1.93	1.19	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	2	9	42	17	5	0	100%	4.7	40.5%	11.9%	28.6%	0.0%	1.93	1.06	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	51	199	64	20	5	93%	3.4	23.0%	12.3%	10.6%	3.1%	2.49	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	51	199	64	20	5	93%	3.4	23.0%	12.3%	10.6%	3.1%	2.49	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	51	199	64	20	5	93%	3.4	32.2%	10.1%	22.1%	2.5%	2.49	3.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	27	19	90	404	106	50	19	70%	3.3	19.7%	14.5%	5.3%	6.0%	5.88	6.54	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	27	19	90	404	106	50	19	70%	3.3	19.7%	14.5%	5.3%	6.0%	5.88	6.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	WSH	16	9	55	239	65	32	7	56%	3.4	27.2%	13.4%	13.8%	2.9%	5.24	4.11	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	11	10	35	165	41	18	12	91%	3.2	24.8%	10.9%	13.9%	7.3%	6.88	6.38	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	90	378	88	42	12	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.63	4.58	+0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	90	378	89	40	12	100%	6.0	23.4%	10.7%	12.8%	3.1%	4.56	4.53	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	88	373	87	40	12	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.6%	12.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	86	362	84	39	12	100%	6.1	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.63	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	82	345	79	38	12	100%	5.8	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	3.3%	4.70	4.76	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	77	325	80	34	12	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.4%	14.2%	3.5%	4.68	4.67	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	303	73	33	11	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.8%	4.79	4.87	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	38	160	37	18	5	100%	6.3	23.3%	11.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.63	4.58	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	59	249	58	27	8	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.7%	12.8%	3.1%	4.56	4.53	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	68	287	67	30	9	100%	6.2	23.4%	10.6%	12.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	72	304	70	32	10	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.63	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	72	304	70	33	10	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	3.3%	4.70	4.76	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	69	291	72	30	10	100%	5.8	24.6%	10.4%	14.2%	3.5%	4.68	4.67	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	66	279	67	30	11	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.8%	4.79	4.87	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	444	1875	442	201	62	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.7%	12.9%	3.3%	4.65	4.28	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	199	91	28	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.7%	12.9%	3.3%	4.65	4.28	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		51	41	167	717	161	103	33	80%	3.3	22.4%	14.3%	8.1%	4.6%	4.54	5.57	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	49	200	860	193	123	40	80%	3.3	22.4%	14.3%	8.1%	4.6%	4.54	5.57	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liam Sullivan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	23.1%	12.1%	3.1%	—	4.55	23.4%	12.6%	268	-0.21	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	83
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	79
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	77
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	75
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	75
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	74
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	73
Grant Wolfram L 2021 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP-	5.44	25.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.327	3.95	22.8%	10.7%	176	-1.49	2.41	418	73
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	72
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	72
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	71
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	71
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	71
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	70
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	70
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	70
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	70
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	69
Justin Steele L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP	4.07	20.0%	12.9%	1.8%	.400	3.71	24.2%	14.1%	203	-0.36	2.74	785	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	77	23.5%	10.8%	1.26	4.65
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33