Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.00 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 6 | 32 | 138 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 55% | 2.9 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 4.55 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 6 | 32 | 138 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 55% | 2.9 | 21.7% | 7.2% | 14.5% | 1.4% | 3.94 | 2.98 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 17 | 81 | 364 | 70 | 30 | 12 | 85% | 4.0 | 14.3% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.24 | 5.80 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 17 | 81 | 364 | 70 | 30 | 12 | 85% | 4.0 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 5.24 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 17 | 15 | 63 | 277 | 63 | 35 | 5 | 88% | 3.7 | 17.5% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.59 | 5.24 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 17 | 15 | 63 | 277 | 63 | 35 | 5 | 88% | 3.7 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 1.8% | 3.59 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 51 | 258 | 40 | 45 | 4 | 0% | 2.0 | 11.5% | 19.8% | -8.3% | 2.0% | 7.01 | 5.72 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 51 | 258 | 40 | 45 | 4 | 0% | 2.0 | 15.5% | 17.4% | -1.9% | 1.6% | 7.01 | 5.18 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | SD | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 27 | 52 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.5% | 20.8% | -10.3% | 2.9% | 6.79 | 6.79 | -1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 33 | 49 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.1% | 19.6% | -6.5% | 2.9% | 6.48 | 6.43 | -1.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 34 | 47 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 18.9% | -5.0% | 2.9% | 6.32 | 6.31 | -1.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 14 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.1% | 19.6% | -6.5% | 2.9% | 6.48 | 6.43 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 22 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.9% | 18.9% | -5.0% | 2.9% | 6.32 | 6.31 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 0 | 62 | 264 | 36 | 51 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.6% | 19.2% | -5.6% | 2.9% | 6.39 | 5.98 | -1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 115 | 163 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.6% | 19.2% | -5.6% | 2.9% | 6.39 | 5.98 | -1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 77 | 41 | 233 | 1060 | 158 | 141 | 36 | 53% | 3.0 | 14.9% | 13.3% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 5.39 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 35 | 200 | 911 | 135 | 121 | 31 | 53% | 3.0 | 14.9% | 13.3% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 5.39 | +0.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bodi Rascon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.79 | 10.5% | 20.8% | 2.9% | — | 6.37 | 13.5% | -5.8% | 118 | -0.42 | — | — | — |
| Mike Kickham L 2027 · 6.65 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.65 | 10.4% | 27.2% | 1.8% | .222 | 3.59 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 194 | -3.06 | 3.00 | 368 | 72 |
| Mason Miller L 2025 · 6.05 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.05 | 12.8% | 18.6% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 150 | 69 |
| Jack O'Loughlin L 2026 · 6.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.35 | 11.8% | 18.1% | 3.6% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 348 | 66 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.02 | 19.9% | 20.9% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.41 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 47 | -0.61 | 4.00 | 316 | 66 |
| Tim Berry L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.80 | 11.3% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.04 | 20.0% | 1.8% | 44 | -1.76 | 4.04 | 196 | 64 |
| Jared Poche L 2025 · 5.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.75 | 13.4% | 15.2% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 156 | 63 |
| Kevin Smith L 2026 · 6.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.28 | 17.5% | 16.2% | 4.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 248 | 63 |
| Aliangel Lopez L 2024 · 6.47 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.47 | 13.0% | 13.9% | 4.9% | .371 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 260 | 63 |
| Dalton Rogers L 2026 · 6.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.26 | 15.8% | 18.5% | 3.9% | .198 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 326 | 61 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 6.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.16 | 15.3% | 17.1% | 4.0% | .275 | 4.98 | 19.5% | -8.3% | 18 | -1.18 | 4.80 | 223 | 59 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.80 | 17.9% | 15.0% | 4.2% | .307 | 4.93 | 14.8% | 2.9% | 135 | -0.87 | 3.39 | 232 | 58 |
| Chris Nunn L 2025 · 5.94 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.94 | 13.9% | 16.8% | 3.4% | .350 | 3.97 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 37 | -1.97 | 3.26 | 180 | 58 |
| Michael Prosecky L 2026 · 6.85 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.85 | 7.5% | 18.6% | 3.7% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 278 | 58 |
| Dan Lietz L 2025 · 5.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.92 | 11.1% | 13.2% | 3.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 188 | 57 |
| Brandon Neeck L 2026 · 6.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.46 | 16.8% | 16.7% | 4.8% | .298 | 3.88 | 28.8% | 9.1% | 38 | -2.58 | 3.74 | 171 | 56 |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2025 · 6.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.50 | 13.1% | 14.9% | 4.8% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 101 | 55 |
| Steve Hajjar L 2024 · 6.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.73 | 15.0% | 25.6% | 3.0% | .150 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 141 | 55 |
| Konnor Pilkington L 2026 · 6.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.50 | 18.2% | 17.7% | 4.9% | .338 | 4.85 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 217 | -1.65 | 3.92 | 650 | 53 |
| Caleb Franzen L 2024 · 6.40 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.40 | 7.6% | 18.6% | 2.9% | .190 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 138 | 53 |
| Levi Prater L 2024 · 6.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.57 | 15.8% | 23.5% | 3.3% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 6.57 | 110 | 53 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 12.5% | 19.8% | 1.12 | 6.53 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |