Seth Lonsway — OGILVIE

Seth Lonsway P Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 206 lbs AAA peak 0.8 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%15.7%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	4	4	5	20	10	0	1	100%	1.2	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	5.0%	7.20	1.62	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	4	4	5	20	10	0	1	100%	1.2	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	5.0%	7.20	1.70	—
2022	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	26	9	95	419	120	51	8	35%	3.7	21.2%	14.4%	6.8%	2.3%	4.06	4.41	—
2022	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	26	9	95	419	120	51	8	35%	3.7	28.6%	12.2%	16.5%	1.9%	4.06	3.28	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	28	17	89	435	78	58	9	61%	3.2	13.8%	15.3%	-1.5%	2.4%	5.87	5.20	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	28	17	89	435	78	58	9	61%	3.2	13.8%	15.3%	-1.5%	2.4%	5.87	5.20	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	28	17	89	435	78	58	9	61%	3.2	17.9%	13.3%	4.6%	2.1%	5.87	4.62	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	96	406	83	27	4	89%	5.0	16.0%	7.6%	8.4%	1.2%	3.01	3.35	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	96	406	83	27	4	89%	5.0	16.0%	7.6%	8.4%	1.2%	3.01	3.35	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	96	406	83	27	4	89%	5.0	20.4%	6.7%	13.8%	1.0%	3.01	2.76	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	134	579	122	67	9	100%	4.8	17.2%	11.9%	5.3%	1.6%	3.76	4.05	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	134	579	122	67	9	100%	4.8	17.2%	11.9%	5.3%	1.6%	3.76	4.05	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	134	579	122	67	9	100%	4.8	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	1.6%	3.76	3.65	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	2	11	2	0	0	0%	2.0	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.10	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	24	18	89	415	55	55	10	75%	3.7	10.9%	12.5%	-1.6%	2.8%	5.54	5.31	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	24	18	89	415	55	55	10	75%	3.7	10.9%	12.5%	-1.6%	2.8%	5.54	5.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	SF	1	0	4	14	2	1	0	0%	3.7	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	4.91	2.80	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	SF	22	18	84	390	51	54	10	82%	3.8	13.1%	13.8%	-0.8%	2.6%	5.49	5.16	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	SF	1	0	2	11	2	0	0	0%	2.0	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.56	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SF	1	0	2	11	2	0	0	0%	2.0	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	9.00	1.56	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SF	1	1	7	29	5	4	1	100%	7.0	15.7%	12.1%	3.6%	2.2%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SF	1	1	7	30	5	4	1	100%	7.0	15.7%	12.1%	3.6%	2.2%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	96	444	60	59	11	—	—	13.4%	13.2%	0.2%	2.4%	5.50	5.28	-0.4
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	9	38	60	59	11	—	—	157.6%	154.8%	2.8%	28.2%	59.07	24.86	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	83	349	57	41	8	100%	5.9	16.2%	11.8%	4.4%	2.4%	4.90	4.93	-0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	79	333	61	36	9	100%	6.1	18.4%	10.9%	7.5%	2.6%	4.78	4.74	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	74	313	57	35	9	100%	6.2	18.3%	11.2%	7.2%	2.8%	4.84	4.90	0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	78	329	53	39	8	100%	6.0	16.2%	11.8%	4.4%	2.4%	4.90	4.93	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	75	317	58	35	8	100%	6.2	18.4%	10.9%	7.5%	2.6%	4.78	4.74	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	70	296	54	33	8	100%	5.8	18.3%	11.2%	7.2%	2.8%	4.84	4.90	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	39	233	986	173	111	25	98%	5.8	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	2.6%	4.88	4.45	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	847	149	95	21	97%	5.9	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	2.6%	4.88	4.45	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		129	93	508	2274	368	278	47	72%	3.9	16.2%	12.2%	4.0%	2.1%	4.39	4.42	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	37	200	895	145	109	19	72%	3.9	16.2%	12.2%	4.0%	2.1%	4.39	4.42	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Lonsway (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	15.7%	12.1%	2.2%	—	4.86	17.6%	6.3%	236	-0.05	—	—	—
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	88
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	86
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	84
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	82
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	81
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	79
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	79
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	78
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	77
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	77
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	76
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	75
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	75
Anthony Vasquez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	28	SP-	4.16	11.8%	9.3%	1.6%	.278	4.19	14.3%	7.3%	423	+0.03	4.02	642	74
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	73
Luis Ysla L 2019 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP-	5.78	18.0%	14.4%	4.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	378	73
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	73
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	73
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	73
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	78	17.2%	11.5%	0.97	4.86
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21