Seth Lonsway
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 206 lbs
AAA
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112122vR 131
ERA4.95
FIP4.95
K%16.1%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%3.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 1.2 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 5.0% | 7.20 | 1.62 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 1.2 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 5.0% | 7.20 | 1.70 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 26 | 9 | 95 | 419 | 120 | 51 | 8 | 35% | 3.7 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 4.06 | 4.34 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 26 | 9 | 95 | 419 | 120 | 51 | 8 | 35% | 3.7 | 28.6% | 12.2% | 16.5% | 1.9% | 4.06 | 3.28 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 28 | 17 | 89 | 435 | 78 | 58 | 9 | 61% | 3.2 | 13.8% | 15.3% | -1.5% | 2.2% | 5.87 | 5.11 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 28 | 17 | 89 | 435 | 78 | 58 | 9 | 61% | 3.2 | 17.9% | 13.3% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 5.87 | 4.62 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 83 | 27 | 4 | 89% | 5.0 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 1.1% | 3.01 | 3.33 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 83 | 27 | 4 | 89% | 5.0 | 20.4% | 6.7% | 13.8% | 1.0% | 3.01 | 2.76 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 134 | 579 | 122 | 67 | 9 | 100% | 4.8 | 17.5% | 12.5% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 3.76 | 4.03 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 134 | 579 | 122 | 67 | 9 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 1.6% | 3.76 | 3.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 15 | 10 | 46 | 220 | 28 | 28 | 5 | 67% | 3.1 | 11.1% | 13.8% | -2.7% | 2.7% | 6.60 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 44 | 35 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 111 | 494 | 72 | 63 | 11 | — | — | 14.6% | 12.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 5.64 | 5.13 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 6 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 16.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 4.95 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 56 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.5% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 4.93 | 4.97 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 60 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 56 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 24 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.5% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 4.93 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 36 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 40 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 23 | 23 | 136 | 575 | 104 | 69 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 4.87 | 4.51 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 101 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 4.87 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 120 | 85 | 465 | 2079 | 350 | 260 | 39 | 71% | 3.9 | 16.8% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 4.39 | 4.30 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 37 | 200 | 894 | 150 | 112 | 17 | 71% | 3.9 | 16.8% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 4.39 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Lonsway (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 16.1% | 12.9% | 2.2% | — | 4.89 | 17.9% | 6.0% | 228 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 87 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 86 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 81 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2023 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 79 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.62 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.06 | 217 | 78 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 78 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 78 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 235 | 77 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 75 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 75 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.33 | 11.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .278 | 4.14 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 423 | -0.19 | 4.01 | 642 | 74 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 74 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.55 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .283 | 3.99 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.56 | 3.78 | 311 | 74 |
| Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 73 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.84 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .275 | 5.64 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.96 | 379 | 73 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 133 | 73 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.64 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .354 | 3.90 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.74 | 3.90 | 137 | 73 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 73 |
| Max Herrmann L 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 11.1% | 12.4% | 0.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 168 | 73 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 78 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 0.95 | 4.89 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |