Seth Lonsway
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.7
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 206 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.8%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%7.6%
IP118
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.20 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 26 | 9 | 95 | 419 | 120 | 51 | 8 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 4.40 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 28 | 17 | 89 | 435 | 78 | 58 | 9 | 13.8% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 5.87 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 19 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 83 | 27 | 4 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 1.2% | 3.01 | 3.35 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 28 | 28 | 134 | 579 | 122 | 67 | 9 | 17.5% | 12.5% | 1.6% | 3.76 | 4.08 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 2 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 118 | 498 | 94 | 56 | 11 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 125 | 528 | 95 | 59 | 12 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 4.42 | 4.28 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 95 | 55 | 12 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 4.52 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 94 | 52 | 12 | 19.2% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 4.53 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 90 | 51 | 12 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 87 | 49 | 12 | 19.0% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 82 | 48 | 12 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 77 | 46 | 12 | 18.4% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 94 | 397 | 72 | 45 | 11 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.96 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 66 | 43 | 11 | 17.6% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 5.08 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 60 | 41 | 11 | 17.2% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 77 | 426 | 1889 | 326 | 233 | 36 | 17.3% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 4.12 | 4.26 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 36 | 200 | 887 | 153 | 109 | 17 | 17.3% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 4.12 | 4.26 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Lonsway (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | — | 4.56 | 19.1% | 8.3% | 346 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 90 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 89 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 85 |
| Blair Walters L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 14.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 262 | 83 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2023 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 83 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 83 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 82 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 82 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.5% | .307 | 4.18 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.44 | 3.12 | 217 | 82 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 82 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 81 |
| John Gast L 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 81 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 81 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 81 |
| Orlando Lara L 2029 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 81 |
| Carlos Teller L 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.74 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 0.8% | .329 | 4.75 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 187 | +1.01 | 3.74 | 333 | 80 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 80 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.36 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .283 | 3.88 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.48 | 3.73 | 311 | 79 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 79 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2029 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$8M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.9M |
| Totals | $5M | $23M | +$18M | ||