Brycen Mautz — OGILVIE

Brycen Mautz P Memphis Redbirds

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 51 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101111vR 120

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%21.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP51

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—50

CMD5055

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	23	23	104	456	115	45	4	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.6%	7.0%	1.1%	3.98	3.61	—
2023	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	23	23	104	456	115	45	4	100%	4.5	25.2%	9.9%	15.4%	0.9%	3.98	2.69	—
2024	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	18.3%	10.0%	8.3%	4.7%	5.18	5.41	—
2024	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	3.7%	5.18	4.29	—
2025	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	2.8%	2.98	3.64	—
2025	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	28.6%	7.1%	21.6%	2.8%	2.98	3.10	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	17	16	72	329	73	53	5	94%	4.2	19.8%	17.0%	2.8%	1.7%	3.12	4.54	+0.2
ROS	25	MLB	STL	9	9	51	217	45	18	7	100%	5.7	21.0%	8.2%	12.8%	3.1%	4.44	4.44	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB	STL	9	9	51	215	45	18	7	100%	5.7	21.0%	8.2%	12.8%	3.1%	4.44	4.44	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB	STL	—	—	123	546	118	71	12	—	—	21.7%	13.0%	8.7%	2.1%	3.67	4.50	+1.3
2026 FULL	25	MLB	STL	—	—	54	230	118	71	12	—	—	51.6%	30.8%	20.8%	5.1%	8.33	5.44	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	STL	14	14	81	342	73	28	11	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.1%	13.2%	3.1%	4.41	4.40	+0.6
2028	27	MLB	STL	13	13	80	337	79	25	11	100%	6.1	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	3.1%	4.25	4.16	+0.8
2029	28	MLB	STL	13	13	77	327	76	25	11	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.6%	15.6%	3.2%	4.25	4.25	+0.6
2030	29	MLB	STL	12	12	74	312	72	24	10	100%	6.2	22.9%	7.8%	15.1%	3.4%	4.33	4.38	+0.4
2031	30	MLB	STL	12	12	70	293	66	24	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	8.2%	14.5%	3.6%	4.47	4.56	+0.2
2032	31	MLB	STL	11	11	65	274	61	23	10	100%	5.9	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.8%	4.64	4.76	-0.1
2033	32	MLB	STL	10	10	60	253	55	23	10	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.9%	12.8%	4.0%	4.85	4.99	-0.3
2027	26	MLB	STL	13	13	77	325	69	26	10	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.1%	13.2%	3.1%	4.41	4.40	+0.5
2028	27	MLB	STL	13	13	76	321	75	24	10	100%	5.8	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	3.1%	4.25	4.16	+0.7
2029	28	MLB	STL	12	12	74	312	72	24	10	100%	6.2	23.2%	7.6%	15.6%	3.2%	4.25	4.25	+0.5
2030	29	MLB	STL	12	12	70	296	68	23	10	100%	5.8	22.9%	7.8%	15.1%	3.4%	4.33	4.38	+0.3
2031	30	MLB	STL	11	11	66	279	63	23	10	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.2%	14.5%	3.6%	4.47	4.56	+0.1
2032	31	MLB	STL	10	10	62	262	58	22	10	100%	6.2	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.8%	4.63	4.75	-0.1
2033	32	MLB	STL	10	10	57	241	52	21	10	100%	5.7	21.8%	8.9%	12.8%	4.0%	4.84	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			93	92	535	2262	504	183	76	99%	5.8	22.3%	8.1%	14.2%	3.4%	4.44	4.08	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—			35	34	200	845	188	68	28	99%	5.8	22.3%	8.1%	14.2%	3.4%	4.44	4.08	+3.1
Career	—			89	88	412	1791	357	199	49	99%	4.6	20.0%	11.1%	8.8%	2.7%	3.91	4.33	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—			43	43	200	869	173	97	24	99%	4.6	20.0%	11.1%	8.8%	2.7%	3.91	4.33	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brycen Mautz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	21.0%	8.2%	3.1%	—	4.27	22.6%	14.9%	238	-0.17	—	—	—
James Paxton L 2027 · 4.26 FIP	26	SP	4.26	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	3.00	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.26	2.48	924	83
Dalton Pence L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	22.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	153	82
Sebastian Gongora L 2025 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	18.5%	7.5%	2.4%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	152	81
Zach Thornton L 2025 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	20.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	221	80
Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.34 FIP	25	SP	4.34	23.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.295	5.13	17.0%	6.5%	66	+0.79	3.28	297	79
Connor Wietgrefe L 2025 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	18.7%	8.5%	3.0%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	200	79
David Peterson L 2026 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	24.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.298	3.65	24.2%	14.0%	401	-0.81	2.80	1,080	77
Aríel Miranda L 2027 · 3.38 FIP	26	SP	3.38	18.3%	10.2%	0.9%	.280	5.41	19.2%	10.2%	364	+2.03	3.38	431	76
Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	16.9%	6.3%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	174	75
Matt Moore L 2027 · 4.18 FIP	26	SP	4.18	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.45	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.82	845	75
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.95 FIP	25	SP	3.95	16.5%	8.6%	2.1%	.313	3.78	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.17	3.37	440	74
Kyle Twomey L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	14.8%	7.9%	1.9%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	141	74
Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP	4.54	16.0%	8.0%	3.2%	.294	4.08	19.8%	6.6%	45	-0.46	3.65	328	73
Mason Molina L 2024 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP	3.56	23.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	165	73
Brian Holmes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP	25	SP-	3.42	19.1%	6.6%	2.0%	.313	6.01	15.5%	3.8%	53	+2.59	3.42	205	73
Jackson Kent L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP	3.80	23.2%	7.8%	3.0%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	197	73
Antonio Velez L 2026 · 4.70 FIP	25	SP	4.70	19.5%	6.5%	4.4%	.324	5.31	18.7%	12.5%	26	+0.61	3.46	187	73
Adam Scott L 2026 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP	4.71	22.8%	11.7%	3.7%	.289	5.15	19.3%	3.3%	122	+0.44	4.53	315	72
Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	16.0%	7.6%	1.1%	.301	4.35	16.0%	3.1%	177	+1.02	3.33	457	72
Colton Gordon L 2026 · 4.19 FIP	25	SP	4.19	20.9%	7.8%	3.4%	.286	4.64	18.9%	13.6%	222	+0.45	2.76	527	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	70	22.3%	8.0%	1.31	4.44
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Tyler Duffey ('22)	8	59	23.0%	6.8%	1.25	4.57
Matt Wisler ('22)	8	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Austin Voth ('24)	6	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94