Brycen Mautz

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+STL	24	24	122	5.18	4.29	23.8%	8.7%	—	K 18.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.39
2025	24	AASTL	25	25	115	2.98	3.10	28.6%	7.1%	—	K 23.2% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.78
2026	25	MIX2 levels	39	17	101	4.10	4.51	22.8%	16.1%	0.1	K 20.2% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	26	MLBSTL	9	9	52	4.60	4.77	20.3%	11.7%	0.4
2028PROJ79% MLB	27	MLBSTL	11	11	65	4.68	4.76	20.4%	11.4%	0.5
2029PROJ85% MLB	28	MLBSTL	10	10	62	4.74	4.80	20.4%	11.2%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%67

FB Velo36

xwOBA vs12

Form5.84 ERA (proj 4.60) · K 27.9% (proj 20.3%) · BB 14.8% (proj 11.7%) ▲ last 60d · 12 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 2.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsBrad Mills (age 26) · Erik Rivera (age 23) · Hung-Chih Kuo (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.60

FIP4.77

K%20.3%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p9032.6%

p6725.3%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	23	23	104	456	115	45	4	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.6%	7.0%	1.1%	3.98	3.62	—
2023	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	23	23	104	456	115	45	4	100%	4.5	25.2%	9.9%	15.4%	0.9%	3.98	2.69	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	18.3%	10.0%	8.3%	4.7%	5.18	5.39	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	18.3%	10.0%	8.3%	4.7%	5.18	5.39	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	3.7%	5.18	4.29	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	3.0%	2.98	3.78	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	3.0%	2.98	3.78	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	28.6%	7.1%	21.6%	2.8%	2.98	3.10	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	17	101	473	108	76	10	44%	2.6	20.2%	14.7%	5.5%	2.3%	4.10	4.53	+0.0
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	17	101	473	108	76	10	44%	2.6	20.2%	14.7%	5.5%	2.3%	4.10	4.53	+0.0
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	17	101	473	108	76	10	44%	2.6	22.8%	16.1%	6.8%	2.1%	4.10	4.51	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	1	15	75	19	11	2	12%	1.9	25.3%	14.7%	10.7%	2.7%	5.87	4.47	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	STL	9	9	52	220	45	26	6	100%	5.8	20.3%	11.7%	8.6%	2.8%	4.60	4.77	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	347	71	40	10	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.68	4.76	+0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	73	309	63	35	9	100%	6.1	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.74	4.80	+0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	65	276	55	31	9	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.3%	8.6%	3.1%	4.85	4.94	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	58	246	47	28	8	100%	5.8	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.13	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	65	274	56	31	8	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.68	4.76	+0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	62	262	53	29	8	100%	6.2	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.74	4.80	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	58	245	49	28	8	100%	5.8	19.9%	11.3%	8.6%	3.1%	4.85	4.94	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	53	224	43	26	7	100%	5.9	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.13	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	41	253	1080	220	125	33	85%	5.3	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.87	4.50	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	32	200	853	174	99	26	85%	5.3	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.87	4.50	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		111	89	441	1935	388	213	55	80%	4.0	20.0%	11.0%	9.0%	2.9%	4.08	4.37	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	40	200	877	176	97	25	80%	4.0	20.0%	11.0%	9.0%	2.9%	4.08	4.37	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 86 IPFIP 4.38 → 4.55 (+0.17)K% 22.4% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.36%	—	×0.860	19.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.33%	—	×0.900	14.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.21%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.38 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 115 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.78 (+0.68)K% 28.6% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.63%	—	×0.810	23.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.05%	—	×1.100	7.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.105	×1.200	3.02%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 122 IPFIP 4.24 → 5.39 (+1.16)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.79%	—	×0.770	18.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.74%	—	×1.150	10.05%
HR / BF /BF	3.72%	÷0.993	×1.250	4.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 4.24 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 104 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.62 (+0.92)K% 25.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.22%	—	×0.740	18.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.87%	—	×1.180	11.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.010	×1.300	1.13%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brycen Mautz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.83	20.3%	9.0%	221	+0.06	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	84
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Hung-Chih Kuo L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	19.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.333	2.04	29.8%	22.7%	170	-1.87	1.63	287	75
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	72
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	72
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	70
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	70
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	70
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	70
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	70
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	69
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	69
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	69
Josh Outman L 2011 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	13.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.302	3.80	21.8%	11.8%	123	-0.23	2.95	380	68
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	68
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	68
Rodney Boone L 2024 · 4.56 FIP	24	SP-	4.56	18.1%	9.8%	3.2%	.221	3.64	18.5%	10.8%	78	-0.92	3.64	311	67
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	67
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	67
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	74	20.4%	11.6%	1.15	4.81
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Brian Boehringer ('04)	2.7	67	18.2%	11.5%	1.08	4.36
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82