Brycen Mautz — OGILVIE

Brycen Mautz P Memphis Redbirds

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION95 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

K%20.6%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—50

CMD5055

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	23	23	104	456	115	45	4	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.6%	7.0%	1.1%	3.98	3.62	—
2023	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	23	23	104	456	115	45	4	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.6%	7.0%	1.1%	3.98	3.62	—
2023	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	23	23	104	456	115	45	4	100%	4.5	25.2%	9.9%	15.4%	0.9%	3.98	2.69	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	18.3%	10.0%	8.3%	4.7%	5.18	5.39	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	18.3%	10.0%	8.3%	4.7%	5.18	5.39	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	3.7%	5.18	4.29	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	3.0%	2.98	3.78	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	3.0%	2.98	3.78	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	28.6%	7.1%	21.6%	2.8%	2.98	3.10	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	1	9	48	11	7	2	25%	2.2	22.9%	14.6%	8.3%	4.2%	9.00	5.88	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	35	17	95	446	100	72	10	49%	2.7	18.6%	14.7%	3.9%	2.2%	4.28	4.61	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	35	17	95	446	100	72	10	49%	2.7	18.6%	14.7%	3.9%	2.2%	4.28	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	STL	31	16	86	398	89	65	8	52%	2.8	22.4%	16.3%	6.0%	2.0%	3.78	4.38	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	STL	4	1	9	48	11	7	2	25%	2.2	22.9%	14.6%	8.3%	4.2%	9.00	5.30	—
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	STL	4	1	9	48	11	7	2	25%	2.2	22.9%	14.6%	8.3%	4.2%	9.00	5.30	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	7	29	6	3	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.24	4.24	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	STL	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.12	4.12	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	101	475	106	75	11	—	—	22.3%	15.7%	6.6%	2.3%	4.28	4.58	+0.4
FULL	25	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	16	67	106	75	11	—	—	158.5%	111.7%	46.9%	16.2%	27.37	12.77	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	116	492	106	44	16	100%	6.1	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	3.2%	4.59	4.58	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	119	502	108	45	16	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	3.3%	4.58	4.59	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	119	502	107	46	17	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	3.4%	4.62	4.66	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	114	479	102	44	17	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	3.5%	4.71	4.78	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	107	451	94	43	17	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.7%	4.86	4.96	-0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	100	420	86	42	16	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.9%	10.5%	3.9%	5.04	5.16	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	111	469	101	42	14	100%	6.2	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	3.0%	4.47	4.46	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	113	477	103	43	14	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	3.0%	4.45	4.46	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	113	477	102	43	15	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	3.1%	4.49	4.53	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	108	456	97	42	15	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	3.2%	4.58	4.65	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	101	426	89	41	15	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.4%	4.72	4.82	-0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	95	401	82	40	15	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.9%	10.5%	3.6%	4.89	5.01	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	108	656	2780	590	261	90	92%	5.6	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	3.2%	4.65	4.28	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	847	180	80	27	92%	5.6	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	3.2%	4.65	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		107	89	435	1908	375	209	54	83%	4.1	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	2.8%	4.12	4.39	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	41	200	877	172	96	25	83%	4.1	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	2.8%	4.12	4.39	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brycen Mautz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	21.0%	8.5%	3.2%	—	4.61	21.5%	12.5%	354	+0.09	—	—	—
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	84
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	82
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	82
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	81
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	81
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	79
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	78
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	77
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	77
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	77
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	75
Will Dion L 2023 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	22.3%	8.4%	2.0%	.289	4.06	21.2%	13.2%	294	+0.69	3.09	526	75
Trey Dombroski L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	22.3%	8.4%	4.0%	.280	4.93	19.0%	8.3%	302	+0.45	3.80	421	75
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	75
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	75
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	75
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	74
Nick Zwack L 2023 · 5.41 FIP	24	SP-	5.41	20.2%	9.6%	5.1%	.346	5.48	17.9%	7.3%	102	+0.07	3.16	289	74
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	73
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	108	21.2%	9.2%	1.33	4.70
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58