Brycen Mautz
P
Memphis Redbirds
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
LHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.3 · 2027
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%13.5%
IP116
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 23 | 23 | 104 | 456 | 115 | 45 | 4 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 1.1% | 3.98 | 3.62 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 24 | 24 | 122 | 538 | 128 | 47 | 20 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 5.18 | 5.39 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 25 | 115 | 468 | 134 | 33 | 13 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 2.98 | 3.76 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 3 | 3 | 13 | 57 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 3.55 | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | STL | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | STL | — | — | 59 | 252 | 54 | 27 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 4.25 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 116 | 45 | 16 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 119 | 46 | 17 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 119 | 46 | 17 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 115 | 45 | 17 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 119 | 504 | 111 | 44 | 16 | 22.0% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 106 | 43 | 16 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 467 | 100 | 42 | 16 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 94 | 41 | 16 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 88 | 40 | 15 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 82 | 38 | 15 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 75 | 37 | 14 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 5.06 | 5.14 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 75 | 75 | 353 | 1519 | 302 | 154 | 44 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.30 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 861 | 171 | 87 | 25 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.30 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brycen Mautz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.41 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 374 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 87 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 86 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 85 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .231 | 3.89 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 352 | +0.02 | 2.68 | 740 | 85 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 83 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 83 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 83 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .331 | 3.71 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.42 | 3.12 | 310 | 83 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 83 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.27 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .317 | 3.29 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.98 | 2.97 | 245 | 82 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 82 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 82 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 81 |
| Jordan Jess L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 19.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 136 | 81 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 81 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 81 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .341 | 8.17 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.12 | 3.97 | 158 | 81 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .294 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.25 | 3.59 | 364 | 80 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2029 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 80 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .338 | 3.49 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.22 | 1.78 | 560 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +1.1 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $12M | $52M | +$40M | ||