Mitchell Parker
P
Washington Nationals
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 239 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.54
FIP4.50
K%18.0%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p6828.1%
K%
p2919.1%
xwOBA vs
p200.347
FB+2.4 (34%)
CU (16%)
SL-2.4 (50%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 102 | 451 | 144 | 38 | 12 | 91% | 4.4 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.03 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 102 | 451 | 144 | 38 | 12 | 91% | 4.4 | 31.9% | 8.4% | 23.5% | 2.7% | 4.87 | 2.92 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 24 | 24 | 100 | 436 | 117 | 67 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 20.7% | 17.7% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 2.88 | 3.98 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 24 | 24 | 100 | 436 | 117 | 67 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 26.8% | 15.4% | 11.5% | 0.7% | 2.88 | 3.16 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 124 | 538 | 150 | 61 | 13 | 93% | 4.4 | 22.8% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 4.04 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 124 | 538 | 150 | 61 | 13 | 93% | 4.4 | 27.9% | 11.3% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 3.52 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 155 | 661 | 138 | 44 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.6% | 6.7% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 3.73 | +3.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 155 | 661 | 138 | 44 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.9% | 6.7% | 14.2% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 3.68 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 30 | 165 | 725 | 103 | 58 | 25 | 91% | 5.0 | 14.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.68 | 4.81 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 30 | 165 | 725 | 103 | 58 | 25 | 91% | 5.0 | 14.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.68 | 4.88 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 25 | 3 | 53 | 238 | 50 | 16 | 11 | 12% | 2.1 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 4.7% | 6.45 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 52 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.54 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 53 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.54 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 122 | 529 | 102 | 38 | 21 | — | — | 19.4% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 5.37 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 108 | 458 | 102 | 38 | 21 | — | — | 22.3% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 4.7% | 6.04 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 119 | 53 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.07 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 118 | 55 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 5.12 | 5.15 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 156 | 657 | 109 | 54 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 5.23 | 5.31 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 119 | 53 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.07 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 118 | 55 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 5.12 | 5.15 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 109 | 54 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 5.23 | 5.31 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 230 | 139 | 906 | 3873 | 668 | 297 | 141 | 60% | 3.9 | 17.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 5.11 | 4.62 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 31 | 200 | 855 | 147 | 66 | 31 | 61% | 3.9 | 17.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 5.11 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 163 | 134 | 698 | 3049 | 608 | 306 | 84 | 82% | 4.3 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 4.21 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 38 | 200 | 873 | 174 | 88 | 24 | 82% | 4.3 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mitchell Parker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 16.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | — | 5.17 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 482 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 63 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 59 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 59 |
| Chris Jones L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.69 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.03 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 118 | +0.34 | 3.69 | 268 | 59 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 58 |
| Yohan Flande L 2029 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.45 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.24 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.21 | 3.16 | 335 | 58 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.95 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .318 | 3.49 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.46 | 2.95 | 681 | 58 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .303 | 5.70 | 22.3% | 4.9% | 51 | +0.80 | 3.42 | 432 | 58 |
| James Gillheeney L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 57 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.05 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.13 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 252 | +0.08 | 3.47 | 393 | 57 |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 57 |
| Eric Wooten L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 57 |
| Jared Koenig L 2027 · 5.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.63 | 16.0% | 9.4% | 4.9% | .270 | 3.75 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 267 | -1.88 | 2.86 | 455 | 57 |
| Dillon Peters L 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.31 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 119 | -0.62 | 2.56 | 598 | 57 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 133 | 57 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 56 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.29 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .299 | 3.96 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 251 | -0.33 | 3.19 | 564 | 56 |
| Colton Gordon L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.76 | 19.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | .315 | 4.44 | 17.2% | 12.4% | 80 | -0.32 | 2.76 | 527 | 55 |
| Nick Additon L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.62 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.06 | 217 | 55 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 55 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 148 | 16.8% | 7.9% | 1.45 | 5.10 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |