Mitchell Parker
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.6
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 239 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.92
FIP4.85
xFIP2.36
SIERA2.40
K%17.0%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%9.1%
IP160
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5555
CMD4040
K†4040
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p1019.6%
K%
p1014.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.370
FB+2.4 (30%)
CU (12%)
SL-2.4 (57%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 23 | 21 | 102 | 451 | 144 | 38 | 12 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.05 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 24 | 24 | 100 | 436 | 117 | 67 | 3 | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.8% | 2.88 | 4.01 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 28 | 26 | 124 | 538 | 150 | 61 | 13 | 22.8% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.18 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 30 | 30 | 155 | 661 | 138 | 44 | 18 | 20.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 4.18 | 3.53 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 30 | 165 | 725 | 103 | 58 | 25 | 14.2% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.68 | 5.00 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 4 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 23.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.28 | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 147 | 620 | 100 | 50 | 21 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 162 | 690 | 121 | 53 | 23 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 141 | 597 | 96 | 48 | 20 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 4.97 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 132 | 555 | 89 | 45 | 19 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 79 | 41 | 17 | 15.6% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 108 | 455 | 69 | 38 | 16 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 5.12 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 59 | 34 | 14 | 14.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 5.27 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 50 | 31 | 13 | 13.8% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.32 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 77 | 323 | 49 | 26 | 12 | 15.2% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 5.27 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 41 | 23 | 11 | 14.5% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 5.34 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 34 | 21 | 10 | 13.7% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 5.46 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 13.0% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 5.60 | 5.70 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 142 | 134 | 661 | 2881 | 577 | 294 | 78 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.18 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 41 | 200 | 872 | 175 | 89 | 24 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.18 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mitchell Parker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 3.3% | — | 5.01 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 392 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.97 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.26 | 3.29 | 915 | 65 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.99 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.01 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 252 | +0.02 | 3.37 | 393 | 63 |
| Chris Jones L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.79 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.07 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 118 | +0.28 | 3.79 | 268 | 61 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.41 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 3.3% | .299 | 3.98 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 251 | -0.43 | 3.14 | 564 | 61 |
| Darin Gorski L 2027 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.96 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.49 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.47 | 4.49 | 206 | 60 |
| Nate Smith L 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 16.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 288 | 60 |
| Austin Warner L 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.97 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .313 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 11.0% | 159 | -0.58 | 3.83 | 491 | 60 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 134 | 60 |
| Mike Belfiore L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 12.0% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 135 | 60 |
| Martín Pérez L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 14.2% | 7.4% | 2.8% | .323 | 4.72 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 313 | +0.33 | 3.15 | 1,452 | 60 |
| Logan Allen L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.11 | 18.0% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .293 | 2.86 | 28.3% | 19.4% | 14 | -1.25 | 2.86 | 706 | 60 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.94 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .289 | 3.64 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 355 | -0.30 | 3.50 | 764 | 60 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.47 | 16.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | .306 | 4.45 | 25.4% | 14.8% | 305 | -1.02 | 3.17 | 1,006 | 59 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 133 | 59 |
| Yohan Flande L 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.79 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.27 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.52 | 3.17 | 335 | 59 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.17 | 14.7% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .295 | 5.14 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 121 | +0.97 | 4.17 | 368 | 59 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.98 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.0% | .285 | 4.73 | 13.1% | 6.0% | 213 | +0.75 | 3.98 | 483 | 59 |
| Zack Dodson L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 10.8% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 162 | 58 |
| Jerry Keel L 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.54 | 14.2% | 8.6% | 4.6% | .354 | 5.60 | 14.3% | 4.9% | 96 | +0.06 | 3.58 | 637 | 58 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.12 | 15.8% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .317 | 4.48 | 13.2% | 2.8% | 143 | +0.36 | 3.72 | 408 | 58 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.