Mitchell Parker

P Washington Nationals

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 239 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	30	30	155	4.18	3.68	20.9%	6.7%	3.2	K 20.6% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.73
2025	25	MLBWSH	33	30	165	5.68	4.88	14.2%	8.0%	1.0
2026	26	MIX2 levels	25	3	53	6.45	4.82	21.0%	6.7%	-0.2	K 20.1% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.82
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	3	3	18	5.02	4.99	17.1%	7.8%	0.1
2028PROJ	28	MLBWSH	7	7	42	5.05	5.08	17.0%	7.9%	0.2
2029PROJ	29	MLBWSH	6	6	38	5.16	5.24	16.4%	8.2%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo37

K%29

xwOBA vs20

CompsDavid Huff (age 27) · Dan Serafini (age 26) · Matt Chico (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.02

FIP4.99

K%17.1%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p6828.1%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	102	451	144	38	12	91%	4.4	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.2%	4.87	4.08	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	102	451	144	38	12	91%	4.4	31.9%	8.4%	23.5%	2.7%	4.87	2.92	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	24	24	100	436	117	67	3	100%	4.2	20.7%	17.7%	3.0%	0.8%	2.88	4.02	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	24	24	100	436	117	67	3	100%	4.2	26.8%	15.4%	11.5%	0.7%	2.88	3.16	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	124	538	150	61	13	93%	4.4	22.8%	12.2%	10.5%	2.6%	4.72	4.14	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	124	538	150	61	13	93%	4.4	27.9%	11.3%	16.5%	2.4%	4.72	3.52	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	155	661	138	44	18	100%	5.2	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	2.8%	4.18	3.73	+3.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	155	661	138	44	18	100%	5.2	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	2.8%	4.18	3.73	+3.1
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	155	661	138	44	18	100%	5.2	20.9%	6.7%	14.2%	2.7%	4.18	3.68	+3.2
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	30	165	725	103	58	25	91%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.68	4.81	+1.1
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	30	165	725	103	58	25	91%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.68	4.81	+1.1
2025	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	33	30	165	725	103	58	25	91%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.68	4.88	+1.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	3	53	238	50	16	11	12%	2.1	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	4.7%	6.45	4.82	-0.2
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	3	53	238	50	16	11	12%	2.1	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	4.7%	6.45	4.82	-0.2
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	3	53	238	50	16	11	12%	2.1	21.0%	6.7%	14.3%	4.6%	6.45	4.82	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	59	355	1549	270	114	52	70%	4.2	17.4%	7.4%	10.1%	3.4%	5.19	4.45	+4.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	3	3	18	76	13	6	3	100%	6.0	17.1%	7.8%	9.3%	3.6%	5.02	4.99	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	42	177	30	14	7	100%	6.0	17.0%	7.9%	9.0%	3.7%	5.05	5.08	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	6	6	38	161	26	13	6	100%	6.4	16.4%	8.2%	8.2%	3.8%	5.16	5.24	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	5	5	31	130	20	11	5	100%	6.1	15.7%	8.5%	7.2%	4.0%	5.33	5.44	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	42	177	30	14	7	100%	6.0	17.0%	7.9%	9.0%	3.7%	5.05	5.08	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	38	160	26	13	6	100%	6.3	16.4%	8.2%	8.2%	3.8%	5.16	5.24	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	31	131	21	11	5	100%	6.2	15.7%	8.5%	7.2%	4.0%	5.33	5.44	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	77	466	2017	347	152	70	75%	4.6	17.2%	7.5%	9.6%	3.5%	5.19	4.51	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	33	200	865	149	65	30	76%	4.5	17.2%	7.5%	9.6%	3.5%	5.19	4.51	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		163	134	698	3049	608	305	86	82%	4.3	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.24	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	38	200	873	174	87	25	82%	4.3	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.24	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 13 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.75 (+0.43)K% 26.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.860	22.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×0.900	4.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 114 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.01 (+0.66)K% 27.2% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.22%	—	×0.810	22.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.13%	—	×1.100	12.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.115	×1.200	2.22%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 10 IPFIP 5.01 → 5.37 (+0.36)K% 34.0% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.96%	—	×0.860	29.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.21%	—	×0.900	11.89%
HR / BF /BF	5.66%	÷1.058	×1.100	5.89%

Result: FIP 5.01 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 100 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.02 (+0.86)K% 26.8% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.83%	—	×0.770	20.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.37%	—	×1.150	17.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷1.114	×1.250	0.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFredericksburg Nationals · 57 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.23 (+1.18)K% 34.8% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.84%	—	×0.740	25.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.61%	—	×1.180	10.16%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷1.159	×1.300	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 132).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 44 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.91 (+1.11)K% 28.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.50%	—	×0.770	21.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.21%	—	×1.150	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.93%	÷0.906	×1.250	2.67%

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitchell Parker (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.23	16.4%	8.2%	111	+0.24	—	—	—
David Huff L 2012 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	16.7%	4.4%	4.4%	.294	3.82	17.2%	11.4%	154	-0.84	3.40	540	67
Dan Serafini L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	11.7%	9.0%	3.7%	.300	5.44	9.2%	0.0%	30	+0.17	3.71	259	63
Matt Chico L 2008 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	14.2%	7.3%	4.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.15	215	63
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 2010 · 6.09 FIP	27	SP-	6.09	9.6%	8.2%	5.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	363	59
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	57
Sean Newcomb L 2020 · 6.12 FIP	27	SP	6.12	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	.320	3.92	27.2%	12.4%	147	-2.20	2.76	1,030	57
Brandon Claussen L 2006 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP	4.89	16.2%	7.7%	4.0%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	310	56
Greg Smith L 2010 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP	5.33	17.0%	12.1%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	349	56
Kyle Freeland L 2020 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.1%	7.6%	2.6%	.301	4.22	16.9%	10.1%	451	+0.00	3.37	1,627	55
Steven Brault L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	19.8%	10.1%	3.2%	.301	3.81	18.8%	8.2%	70	-0.66	3.12	691	55
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	55
Aaron Laffey L 2012 · 5.39 FIP	27	SP-	5.39	11.2%	8.4%	4.0%	.253	4.20	13.6%	3.1%	103	-1.19	3.34	769	55
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	55
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	55
Jimmy Anderson L 2003 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP	5.78	7.1%	7.1%	4.3%	.347	3.46	8.6%	0.0%	16	-2.32	3.46	575	54
Mark Redman L 2001 · 4.62 FIP	27	SP	4.62	12.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.308	4.02	14.6%	7.8%	585	-0.60	3.52	1,239	54
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	54
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	719	53
Doug Davis L 2003 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	12.6%	10.2%	3.3%	.295	3.86	19.6%	9.9%	633	-1.25	3.47	1,713	53
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	69	17.2%	7.6%	1.34	5.18
Scott Bailes ('86-'98, -3 WAR*)	3.4	76	15.4%*	8.2%*	1.35*	5.02*
Amaury Telemaco ('05)	2.8	70	15.0%	8.0%	1.48	4.94
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Mark Grant ('84-'93, 0 WAR*)	3.2	91	18.0%*	8.5%*	1.41*	4.84*
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*