Mitchell Parker — OGILVIE

Mitchell Parker P Washington Nationals

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 239 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.9 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104113vR 121

ERA4.41

FIP4.37

K%17.9%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p6828.1%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

FB+2.4 (34%)

CU (16%)

SL-2.4 (50%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-4	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	102	451	144	38	12	91%	4.4	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.2%	4.87	4.08	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	102	451	144	38	12	91%	4.4	31.9%	8.4%	23.5%	2.7%	4.87	2.92	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	24	24	100	436	117	67	3	100%	4.2	20.7%	17.7%	3.0%	0.8%	2.88	4.02	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	24	24	100	436	117	67	3	100%	4.2	26.8%	15.4%	11.5%	0.7%	2.88	3.16	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	124	538	150	61	13	93%	4.4	22.7%	12.2%	10.4%	2.6%	4.72	4.15	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	124	538	150	61	13	93%	4.4	22.7%	12.2%	10.4%	2.6%	4.72	4.15	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	124	538	150	61	13	93%	4.4	27.9%	11.3%	16.5%	2.4%	4.72	3.52	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	155	661	138	44	18	100%	5.2	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	2.8%	4.18	3.73	+2.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	155	661	138	44	18	100%	5.2	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	2.8%	4.18	3.73	+2.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	155	661	138	44	18	100%	5.2	20.9%	6.7%	14.2%	2.7%	4.18	3.68	+2.3
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	30	165	725	103	58	25	91%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.68	4.81	+0.2
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	30	165	725	103	58	25	91%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.68	4.81	+0.2
2025	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	33	30	165	725	103	58	25	91%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.68	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	59	355	1549	270	114	52	70%	4.2	17.4%	7.4%	10.1%	3.4%	5.19	4.45	+1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	25	3	53	238	50	16	11	12%	2.1	19.9%	6.6%	13.3%	4.7%	6.45	4.84	-0.2
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	25	3	53	238	50	16	11	12%	2.1	19.9%	6.6%	13.3%	4.7%	6.45	4.84	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	WSH	3	3	13	60	16	3	2	100%	4.4	26.7%	5.0%	21.7%	3.3%	6.07	3.31	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	WSH	22	0	40	178	34	13	9	0%	1.8	19.1%	7.3%	11.8%	5.1%	6.58	5.19	-0.3
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	WSH	22	0	40	178	34	13	9	0%	1.8	19.1%	7.3%	11.8%	5.1%	6.58	5.19	-0.3
ROS	26	MLB MLE	WSH	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.5%	10.4%	3.3%	4.41	4.37	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	WSH	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.5%	10.4%	3.3%	4.41	4.37	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	57	255	53	17	12	—	—	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	4.5%	6.31	4.81	-0.2
FULL	26	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	44	185	53	17	12	—	—	28.7%	9.4%	19.4%	6.3%	8.23	5.30	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	163	688	119	53	26	100%	6.0	17.3%	7.8%	9.5%	3.8%	5.07	5.07	-0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	163	688	118	54	27	100%	6.0	17.1%	7.9%	9.2%	3.9%	5.12	5.15	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	156	657	109	54	26	100%	6.0	16.6%	8.1%	8.4%	4.0%	5.24	5.31	-0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	146	618	98	52	26	100%	6.1	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	4.2%	5.41	5.52	-1.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	27	27	163	688	119	53	26	100%	6.0	17.3%	7.8%	9.5%	3.8%	5.07	5.07	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	27	27	163	688	118	54	27	100%	6.0	17.1%	7.9%	9.2%	3.9%	5.12	5.15	-0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	156	659	109	54	26	100%	6.0	16.6%	8.1%	8.4%	4.0%	5.24	5.31	-0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	146	616	98	52	26	100%	6.1	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	4.2%	5.41	5.52	-1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	164	988	4218	717	329	157	85%	5.1	17.0%	7.8%	9.2%	3.7%	5.20	4.70	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	33	200	854	145	67	32	85%	5.1	17.0%	7.8%	9.2%	3.7%	5.20	4.70	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		163	134	698	3049	607	305	86	82%	4.3	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.24	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	38	200	873	174	87	25	82%	4.3	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.24	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitchell Parker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	16.2%	7.9%	3.2%	—	5.17	17.0%	9.1%	482	+0.29	—	—	—
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	63
Dillon Peters L 2019 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	17.7%	7.3%	5.0%	.323	4.86	20.5%	11.3%	119	-0.41	2.56	598	62
Kyle Freeland L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP	5.09	16.8%	8.6%	4.2%	.320	3.98	17.8%	10.7%	366	-1.11	3.37	1,616	60
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.84	21.0%	6.1%	51	+0.83	3.51	432	60
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	59
Adam Morgan L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	26	SP	4.10	19.9%	5.2%	3.7%	.315	3.66	24.3%	16.6%	151	-0.44	3.45	522	59
Justin Nicolino L 2018 · 4.09 FIP	26	SP	4.09	12.9%	5.7%	2.5%	.326	5.83	14.4%	7.1%	135	+1.74	4.09	835	59
Matthew Boyd L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	19.5%	7.9%	3.2%	.302	4.41	25.8%	18.9%	416	+0.17	2.22	1,440	59
Martín Pérez L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	26	SP	4.34	14.2%	7.4%	2.7%	.323	4.68	16.7%	7.5%	313	+0.34	3.11	1,570	58
Eric Lauer L 2021 · 3.83 FIP	26	SP	3.83	23.9%	8.2%	3.1%	.247	4.71	23.0%	13.7%	324	+0.88	3.75	1,097	58
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	58
Yohan Flande L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	.289	3.27	15.1%	8.4%	172	-1.41	3.18	335	58
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.79	20.0%	12.2%	267	-1.32	2.79	473	58
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	58
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	57
Josh Fleming L 2022 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	16.2%	6.0%	2.2%	.369	4.50	10.5%	3.9%	227	+0.81	3.44	859	57
Daniel Norris L 2019 · 4.51 FIP	26	SP	4.51	20.5%	6.2%	4.3%	.306	4.32	24.8%	14.2%	143	-0.19	2.81	821	57
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	57
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	57
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	155	16.6%	8.0%	1.48	5.15
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46