Justus Sheffield
P
Louisville Bats
Age 30
LHP
5'10" / 224 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 146 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120129vR 138
ERA5.35
FIP5.29
K%17.6%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%4.8%
ROS IP147
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.6
Whiff%
p1014.9%
K%
p1013.7%
xwOBA vs
p150.353
FB+1.1
CH+1.1
SL-1.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Lake County Captains | 26 | 26 | 128 | 555 | 138 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 1.4% | 3.31 | 3.34 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A | Lake County Captains | 26 | 26 | 128 | 555 | 138 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.9% | 6.8% | 18.0% | 1.4% | 3.31 | 2.65 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 125 | 526 | 129 | 53 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 3.09 | 4.12 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 125 | 526 | 129 | 53 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.5% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 1.1% | 3.09 | 2.93 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 98 | 423 | 88 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 3.12 | 5.29 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 98 | 423 | 88 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 3.12 | 4.17 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 20 | 119 | 489 | 123 | 53 | 5 | 71% | 4.2 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 0.9% | 2.65 | 3.12 | +3.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 20 | 119 | 489 | 123 | 53 | 5 | 71% | 4.2 | 25.2% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 1.0% | 2.65 | 2.91 | +3.4 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 31 | 169 | 736 | 170 | 77 | 21 | 94% | 5.1 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.42 | 4.71 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 31 | 169 | 736 | 170 | 77 | 21 | 94% | 5.1 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.07 | +2.6 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 10 | 10 | 55 | 232 | 48 | 20 | 2 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 0.9% | 3.58 | 2.94 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 10 | 10 | 55 | 232 | 48 | 20 | 2 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 0.9% | 3.58 | 2.92 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 17 | 89 | 424 | 77 | 49 | 15 | 65% | 3.4 | 16.4% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 7.00 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 17 | 89 | 424 | 77 | 49 | 15 | 65% | 3.4 | 18.2% | 11.6% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 7.00 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 25 | 115 | 541 | 93 | 53 | 20 | 83% | 3.8 | 15.3% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 6.67 | 4.86 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 25 | 115 | 541 | 93 | 53 | 20 | 83% | 3.8 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 6.67 | 5.13 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 12 | 64 | 302 | 60 | 46 | 9 | 50% | 2.7 | 17.8% | 15.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 7.63 | 5.50 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 12 | 64 | 302 | 60 | 46 | 9 | 50% | 2.7 | 19.9% | 15.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 7.63 | 5.22 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 8 | 47 | 229 | 46 | 27 | 6 | 42% | 2.5 | 16.3% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 6.75 | 4.70 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 8 | 47 | 229 | 46 | 27 | 6 | 42% | 2.5 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 6.75 | 4.54 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 123 | 90 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.6% | 12.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 5.35 | 5.29 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 110 | 86 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.9% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.45 | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 142 | 601 | 97 | 82 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.1% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.64 | 5.77 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 131 | 552 | 84 | 78 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.2% | 14.1% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 5.89 | 6.05 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 41 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.9% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.45 | 5.52 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 53 | 45 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.1% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.64 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 57 | 52 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.2% | 14.1% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 5.89 | 6.05 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 85 | 70 | 410 | 1794 | 306 | 218 | 57 | 82% | 4.8 | 17.0% | 12.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.59 | 4.93 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 34 | 200 | 876 | 149 | 106 | 28 | 82% | 4.8 | 17.0% | 12.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.59 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 240 | 193 | 1008 | 4457 | 815 | 475 | 119 | 80% | 4.2 | 18.3% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.38 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 38 | 200 | 885 | 162 | 94 | 24 | 80% | 4.2 | 18.3% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justus Sheffield (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.29 | 17.6% | 12.9% | 3.0% | — | 5.77 | 16.1% | 2.5% | 427 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.81 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .328 | 3.88 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 288 | -0.93 | 3.36 | 1,167 | 72 |
| Brad Mills L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.98 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .294 | 6.49 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.51 | 4.98 | 182 | 70 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 70 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 68 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.80 | 16.6% | 11.7% | 4.8% | .299 | 4.55 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 296 | -1.25 | 3.76 | 686 | 68 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.83 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 3.6% | .297 | 5.54 | 14.8% | 6.8% | 220 | +0.71 | 3.47 | 512 | 67 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 311 | 66 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2023 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.29 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 116 | 64 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 64 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 64 |
| Tomas Solis L 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 63 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | .308 | 5.56 | 10.9% | 2.7% | 70 | +0.27 | 4.17 | 368 | 62 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.83 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.69 | 13.1% | -1.1% | 60 | -0.14 | 3.72 | 333 | 62 |
| Nico Tellache L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 62 |
| John Danks L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.30 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .303 | 5.79 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 22 | +1.49 | 4.30 | 200 | 61 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.25 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 239 | -0.02 | 2.89 | 540 | 60 |
| Brett Oberholtzer L 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.82 | 13.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 442 | 60 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.28 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .367 | 4.16 | 15.9% | 10.3% | 97 | -0.12 | 3.97 | 280 | 60 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 57 |
| Frank Garces L 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.56 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 306 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 148 | 16.5% | 13.4% | 1.30 | 5.56 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |