Justus Sheffield

Justus Sheffield P Louisville Bats

Age 30 LHP 5'10" / 224 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.25

FIP5.17

K%16.9%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%5.6%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD4050

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p1014.9%

p1013.7%

xwOBA vs

p150.353

FB+1.1

CH+1.1

SL-1.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	26	26	128	555	138	38	8	100%	4.9	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	1.6%	3.31	3.45	—
2015	19	A RAW	Lake County Captains	26	26	128	555	138	38	8	100%	4.9	24.9%	6.8%	18.0%	1.4%	3.31	2.65	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	125	526	129	53	6	100%	5.0	18.2%	11.3%	6.9%	1.7%	3.09	3.94	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	125	526	129	53	6	100%	5.0	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	1.1%	3.09	2.93	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	98	423	88	33	14	100%	5.2	16.4%	8.7%	7.7%	4.3%	3.12	5.19	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	98	423	88	33	14	100%	5.2	20.8%	7.8%	13.0%	3.3%	3.12	4.17	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	20	119	489	123	53	5	71%	4.2	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	0.9%	2.65	3.14	+2.6
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	20	119	489	123	53	5	71%	4.2	25.2%	10.8%	14.3%	1.0%	2.65	2.91	+2.9
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	31	169	736	170	77	21	94%	5.1	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	3.2%	4.42	4.57	+0.6
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	31	169	736	170	77	21	94%	5.1	23.1%	10.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.42	4.07	+1.7
2020	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	10	10	55	232	48	20	2	100%	5.5	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	0.9%	3.58	2.93	+1.4
2020	24	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	10	10	55	232	48	20	2	100%	5.5	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	0.9%	3.58	2.92	+1.4
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	89	424	77	49	15	65%	3.4	16.4%	10.9%	5.5%	3.7%	7.00	5.15	-0.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	89	424	77	49	15	65%	3.4	18.2%	11.6%	6.6%	3.5%	7.00	5.22	-0.3
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	25	115	541	93	53	20	83%	3.8	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	3.6%	6.67	5.06	-0.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	25	115	541	93	53	20	83%	3.8	17.2%	9.8%	7.4%	3.7%	6.67	5.13	-0.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	12	64	302	60	46	9	50%	2.7	16.8%	13.6%	3.1%	3.4%	7.63	5.27	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	12	64	302	60	46	9	50%	2.7	16.8%	13.6%	3.1%	3.4%	7.63	5.27	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	12	64	302	60	46	9	50%	2.7	19.9%	15.2%	4.6%	3.0%	7.63	5.22	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	47	229	46	27	6	42%	2.5	15.4%	10.8%	4.5%	2.8%	6.75	4.68	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	47	229	46	27	6	42%	2.5	15.4%	10.8%	4.5%	2.8%	6.75	4.68	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	8	47	229	46	27	6	42%	2.5	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	2.6%	6.75	4.54	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	33	186	850	155	89	23	69%	3.9	18.2%	10.5%	7.8%	2.7%	5.47	4.48	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	CIN	2	2	14	59	10	7	2	100%	7.0	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	3.1%	5.25	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	154	650	105	76	21	100%	5.9	16.2%	11.7%	4.5%	3.3%	5.34	5.40	-0.9
2028	32	MLB MLE	CIN	24	24	142	601	93	73	21	100%	5.9	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	3.5%	5.53	5.65	-1.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	57	241	39	28	8	100%	5.7	16.2%	11.7%	4.5%	3.3%	5.34	5.40	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	78	329	51	40	12	100%	6.0	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	3.5%	5.53	5.65	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	56	321	1420	245	157	43	79%	4.5	17.2%	11.0%	6.2%	3.0%	5.46	4.69	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	35	200	885	153	98	27	79%	4.6	17.2%	11.0%	6.2%	3.0%	5.46	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		240	193	1008	4457	810	464	118	80%	4.2	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.34	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	38	200	885	161	92	23	80%	4.2	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.34	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justus Sheffield (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	16.9%	11.3%	3.1%	—	5.52	15.8%	3.9%	296	+0.35	—	—	—
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	73
Brad Mills L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	14.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.294	6.13	14.4%	2.6%	44	+1.50	4.63	182	72
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	70
Ross Detwiler L 2016 · 4.61 FIP	30	SP-	4.61	14.3%	7.8%	3.2%	.297	5.54	14.8%	6.8%	220	+0.93	3.49	512	70
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	68
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	68
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	67
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	67
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	66
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	66
John Danks L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	30	SP	4.33	16.1%	7.2%	3.1%	.303	5.84	16.0%	5.0%	22	+1.51	4.33	200	64
Derek Holland L 2017 · 5.85 FIP	30	SP	5.85	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	.299	4.63	23.1%	13.8%	296	-1.22	3.75	686	64
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	63
Anthony Vasquez L 2017 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	13.0%	6.6%	2.4%	.287	5.32	15.9%	7.8%	171	+1.18	4.02	642	62
Brett Oberholtzer L 2018 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	13.6%	7.3%	4.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	442	60
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	60
Jonathon Niese L 2016 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP-	5.28	16.1%	8.1%	4.6%	.308	5.67	10.9%	2.7%	70	+0.39	4.16	368	60
Jaime García L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	20.2%	7.3%	3.8%	.299	4.28	19.4%	9.7%	239	-0.10	2.93	540	60
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	21.4%	7.8%	3.9%	.294	2.82	24.5%	20.5%	332	-1.59	2.79	725	59
Frank Garces L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	29	SP	4.84	15.0%	7.9%	3.6%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	306	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	154	16.2%	11.7%	1.27	5.37
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45