Justus Sheffield
P
Louisville Bats
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
LHP
5'10" / 224 lbs
AAA
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
xFIP4.85
SIERA4.90
K%20.6%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%9.4%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL4040
CMD3535
K†4545
FB Velo
p1091.6
Whiff%
p1014.9%
K%
p1013.7%
xwOBA vs
p150.353
FB+1.1
CH+1.1
SL-1.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Lake County Captains | 26 | 26 | 128 | 555 | 138 | 38 | 8 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 3.31 | 3.44 | +2.7 |
| 2016 | 20 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 25 | 25 | 125 | 526 | 129 | 53 | 6 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 1.8% | 3.09 | 3.96 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 19 | 19 | 98 | 423 | 88 | 33 | 14 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 3.12 | 5.20 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 22 | MLB | New York Yankees | 28 | 20 | 119 | 489 | 123 | 53 | 5 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 0.9% | 2.65 | 3.14 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 33 | 31 | 169 | 736 | 170 | 77 | 21 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.58 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 10 | 10 | 55 | 232 | 48 | 20 | 2 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 0.8% | 3.58 | 2.90 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 26 | 17 | 89 | 424 | 77 | 49 | 15 | 16.4% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 7.00 | 5.17 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 30 | 25 | 115 | 541 | 93 | 53 | 20 | 15.3% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 6.67 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 24 | 12 | 64 | 302 | 60 | 46 | 9 | 17.8% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 7.63 | 5.48 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 19 | 8 | 47 | 229 | 46 | 27 | 6 | 16.3% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 6.75 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 31 | 20 | 5 | 18.5% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 5.09 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 29 | 20 | 5 | 17.9% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 27 | 19 | 5 | 17.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 25 | 18 | 5 | 16.7% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 5.38 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 22 | 18 | 5 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 5.51 | 5.59 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 20 | 17 | 5 | 15.2% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 5.65 | 5.75 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 14.4% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 5.80 | 5.91 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 193 | 1008 | 4457 | 815 | 475 | 119 | 18.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.37 | +10.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 38 | 200 | 885 | 162 | 94 | 24 | 18.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.37 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justus Sheffield (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 18.5% | 12.0% | 3.1% | — | 5.33 | 17.3% | 5.1% | 110 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.62 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.46 | 3.62 | 113 | 86 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 83 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 83 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 78 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 78 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 78 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 155 | 77 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 77 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 76 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.60 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 3.6% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 153 | 76 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.45 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +1.05 | 2.65 | 256 | 76 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 76 |
| Brian Duensing L 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 75 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 75 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 118 | 74 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 73 |
| Bryan Harper L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.65 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 133 | 73 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.24 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.37 | 4.10 | 424 | 72 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.28 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.9% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.28 | 128 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.