Keider Montero
P
Detroit Tigers
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 145 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10898vR 89
ERA4.07
FIP4.28
K%17.7%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 166 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p1017.3%
K%
p1316.8%
xwOBA vs
p700.293
FB+3.4 (54%)
CH+2.4 (14%)
SL+0.8 (18%)
SI (22%)
CU (14%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers | 14 | 12 | 47 | 217 | 41 | 27 | 0 | 86% | 3.4 | 12.8% | 15.6% | -2.7% | 0.0% | 4.02 | 3.99 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers | 14 | 12 | 47 | 217 | 41 | 27 | 0 | 86% | 3.4 | 18.9% | 12.4% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 4.02 | 3.08 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 15 | 5 | 46 | 204 | 40 | 16 | 2 | 33% | 3.1 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 2.14 | 3.97 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 15 | 5 | 46 | 204 | 40 | 16 | 2 | 33% | 3.1 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 1.0% | 2.14 | 2.97 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 5 | 5 | 23 | 100 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 100% | 4.6 | 15.6% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 1.57 | 3.52 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 5 | 5 | 23 | 100 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 1.57 | 2.53 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 15 | 15 | 61 | 290 | 59 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 15.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 5.28 | 4.81 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 15 | 15 | 61 | 290 | 59 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.8% | 2.1% | 5.28 | 3.38 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 25 | 25 | 104 | 447 | 101 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 4.1 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 4.51 | 5.49 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 25 | 25 | 104 | 447 | 101 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 3.73 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 26 | 127 | 550 | 160 | 49 | 16 | 96% | 4.7 | 24.0% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 4.32 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 26 | 127 | 550 | 160 | 49 | 16 | 96% | 4.7 | 29.1% | 8.9% | 20.2% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 3.37 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 29 | 147 | 636 | 131 | 61 | 24 | 91% | 4.6 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 4.85 | 5.30 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 29 | 147 | 636 | 131 | 61 | 24 | 91% | 4.6 | 20.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.85 | 4.69 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 20 | 133 | 571 | 115 | 46 | 21 | 67% | 4.4 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 4.86 | 4.90 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 20 | 133 | 571 | 115 | 46 | 21 | 67% | 4.4 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.46 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 21 | 16 | 101 | 401 | 68 | 21 | 9 | 76% | 4.8 | 16.8% | 5.2% | 11.6% | 2.3% | 3.20 | 3.61 | +2.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.07 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | DET | — | — | 166 | 675 | 117 | 40 | 18 | — | — | 17.3% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 3.54 | 3.87 | +3.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | DET | — | — | 162 | 685 | 117 | 40 | 18 | — | — | 17.0% | 5.8% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 3.59 | 3.81 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 96 | 404 | 73 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 96 | 404 | 73 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 92 | 386 | 67 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.93 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 60 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 69 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.61 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 69 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 64 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 58 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 128 | 112 | 702 | 2942 | 522 | 209 | 103 | 88% | 5.5 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 32 | 200 | 838 | 149 | 60 | 29 | 87% | 5.5 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 184 | 153 | 790 | 3416 | 628 | 315 | 120 | 83% | 4.3 | 18.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.29 | 4.64 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 39 | 200 | 865 | 159 | 80 | 30 | 83% | 4.3 | 18.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.29 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keider Montero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 4.1% | — | 4.79 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 283 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 75 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 74 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 74 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 73 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 73 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 72 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 72 |
| Hunter Dobbins R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.33 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 463 | 71 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 71 |
| Ivan Pineyro R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .356 | 4.38 | 13.4% | 5.2% | 45 | -0.19 | 3.55 | 422 | 71 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 71 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 71 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 71 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 320 | 70 |
| Randy Bell R 2023 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.46 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 120 | 70 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 70 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.72 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 138 | +0.64 | 4.01 | 276 | 70 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.21 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 433 | 69 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 69 |
| Kris Medlen R 2029 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 92 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.42 | 4.82 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Daniel Mengden ('19) | 4 | 73 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 1.24 | 4.68 |
| Matt Harvey ('21) | 6 | 120 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.33 | 4.98 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Yonny Chirinos ('24) | 4 | 84 | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.38 | 4.37 |
| Zach Plesac ('23) | 5 | 93 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 1.39 | 4.20 |