Keider Montero — OGILVIE

Keider Montero P Detroit Tigers

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 145 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.3 · 2027 ILPaternity List (PL)

2026 ROS PROJECTION151 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.32

FIP4.47

K%17.2%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 166 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p1018.3%

p1116.5%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

FB+3.4 (53%)

CH+2.4 (14%)

SL+0.8 (19%)

SI (22%)

CU (14%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.0M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.5M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers	14	12	47	217	41	27	0	86%	3.4	12.8%	15.6%	-2.7%	0.0%	4.02	3.99	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers	14	12	47	217	41	27	0	86%	3.4	18.9%	12.4%	6.5%	0.0%	4.02	3.08	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	15	5	46	204	40	16	2	33%	3.1	13.3%	9.8%	3.5%	1.4%	2.14	3.97	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	15	5	46	204	40	16	2	33%	3.1	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	1.0%	2.14	2.97	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	5	5	23	100	23	11	0	100%	4.6	15.6%	13.8%	1.9%	0.0%	1.57	3.52	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	5	5	23	100	23	11	0	100%	4.6	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	0.0%	1.57	2.53	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	15	15	61	290	59	19	6	100%	4.1	15.7%	7.5%	8.1%	3.1%	5.28	4.42	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	15	15	61	290	59	19	6	100%	4.1	20.3%	6.6%	13.8%	2.1%	5.28	3.38	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	25	104	447	101	37	12	100%	4.1	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	4.0%	4.51	5.01	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	25	104	447	101	37	12	100%	4.1	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	2.7%	4.51	3.73	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	127	550	160	49	16	96%	4.7	23.6%	9.3%	14.2%	3.5%	4.66	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	127	550	160	49	16	96%	4.7	23.6%	9.3%	14.2%	3.5%	4.66	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	127	550	160	49	16	96%	4.7	29.1%	8.9%	20.2%	2.9%	4.66	3.37	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	29	147	636	131	61	24	91%	4.6	19.2%	9.1%	10.0%	4.2%	4.85	4.95	-0.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	29	147	636	131	61	24	91%	4.6	19.2%	9.1%	10.0%	4.2%	4.85	4.95	-0.1
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	29	147	636	131	61	24	91%	4.6	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.8%	4.85	4.69	+0.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	20	133	571	115	46	21	67%	4.4	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	4.0%	4.86	4.71	+0.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	20	133	571	115	46	21	67%	4.4	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	4.0%	4.86	4.71	+0.3
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	20	133	571	115	46	21	67%	4.4	20.1%	8.1%	12.1%	3.7%	4.86	4.46	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			69	52	336	1394	247	94	52	75%	4.9	17.7%	6.7%	11.0%	3.7%	4.12	4.48	+1.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	25	151	607	101	33	17	81%	4.9	16.5%	5.4%	11.1%	3.0%	3.46	4.03	+1.6
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	25	151	607	101	33	17	81%	4.9	16.5%	5.4%	11.1%	3.0%	3.46	4.03	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	DET	1	1	4	14	3	1	0	100%	4.0	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.20	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	DET	30	24	147	593	98	32	17	80%	4.9	16.5%	5.4%	11.1%	2.9%	3.55	3.96	+1.6
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	DET	30	24	147	593	98	32	17	80%	4.9	16.5%	5.4%	11.1%	2.9%	3.55	3.96	+1.6
ROS	26	MLB MLE	DET	2	2	15	61	11	4	2	100%	7.3	17.2%	6.5%	10.7%	3.6%	4.32	4.47	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	DET	2	2	15	63	11	4	2	100%	7.5	17.2%	6.5%	10.7%	3.5%	4.23	4.38	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	166	668	112	37	19	—	—	16.7%	5.5%	11.2%	2.9%	3.53	4.07	+1.6
FULL	26	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	162	682	112	37	19	—	—	16.4%	5.4%	10.9%	2.8%	3.61	3.95	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	DET	25	25	150	632	110	42	21	100%	6.0	17.4%	6.6%	10.9%	3.4%	4.61	4.69	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	25	25	150	632	109	43	22	100%	6.0	17.3%	6.7%	10.6%	3.5%	4.71	4.77	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	143	604	101	42	22	100%	6.0	16.7%	7.0%	9.8%	3.6%	4.84	4.93	-0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	134	567	91	41	22	100%	6.1	16.0%	7.3%	8.8%	3.8%	5.02	5.14	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	142	600	105	39	19	100%	5.9	17.4%	6.6%	10.9%	3.2%	4.53	4.61	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	142	600	104	40	20	100%	5.9	17.3%	6.7%	10.6%	3.3%	4.63	4.69	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	23	23	136	574	96	40	20	100%	5.9	16.7%	7.0%	9.8%	3.5%	4.76	4.85	-0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	128	540	87	39	20	100%	6.1	16.0%	7.3%	8.8%	3.7%	4.93	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	146	898	3769	649	257	133	90%	5.5	17.2%	6.8%	10.4%	3.5%	4.48	4.45	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	32	200	839	144	57	30	90%	5.5	17.2%	6.8%	10.4%	3.5%	4.48	4.45	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		194	162	840	3622	653	318	117	84%	4.3	18.0%	8.8%	9.2%	3.2%	4.28	4.46	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	39	200	863	156	76	28	84%	4.3	18.0%	8.8%	9.2%	3.2%	4.28	4.46	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keider Montero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	19.3%	8.4%	3.9%	—	4.79	17.2%	10.4%	442	-0.24	—	—	—
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	74
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	74
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	74
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	73
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	73
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	73
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	73
Shane Greene R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	13.0%	6.6%	3.0%	.309	3.60	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.90	2.86	484	73
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	73
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	72
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,134	72
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	72
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	72
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	72
Ivan Pineyro R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP-	4.48	16.8%	6.2%	3.6%	.356	4.70	13.4%	5.2%	45	+0.22	3.53	422	71
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	71
Erick Fedde R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	26	SP-	5.06	14.8%	8.4%	3.9%	.287	4.81	18.1%	9.4%	311	-0.25	3.34	1,249	71
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	71
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	70
Randy Bell R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	14.4%	6.6%	3.0%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	120	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	132	17.2%	7.1%	1.39	4.80
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56