Keider Montero
P
Detroit Tigers
+0.2
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 145 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.80
FIP4.95
xFIP3.86
SIERA3.76
K%19.9%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%11.2%
IP93
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†4550
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p1019.0%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p900.229
FB+3.4 (55%)
CH+2.4 (16%)
SL+0.8 (18%)
SI (21%)
CU (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers | 14 | 12 | 47 | 217 | 41 | 27 | 0 | 12.8% | 15.6% | 0.0% | 4.02 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 15 | 5 | 46 | 204 | 40 | 16 | 2 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.4% | 2.14 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 5 | 5 | 23 | 100 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 15.6% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 1.57 | 3.52 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 15 | 15 | 61 | 290 | 59 | 19 | 6 | 15.7% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 5.28 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 25 | 25 | 104 | 447 | 101 | 37 | 12 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 4.51 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 27 | 26 | 127 | 550 | 160 | 49 | 16 | 24.0% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.19 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 32 | 29 | 147 | 636 | 131 | 61 | 24 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 4.85 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 30 | 20 | 133 | 571 | 115 | 46 | 21 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.57 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 4 | 4 | 20 | 77 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 23.8% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 2.66 | 1.49 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 68 | 25 | 10 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.03 | 4.09 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | DET | — | — | 97 | 402 | 86 | 28 | 10 | 21.4% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.55 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 85 | 32 | 13 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 85 | 32 | 14 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 95 | 401 | 81 | 32 | 13 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 77 | 31 | 13 | 19.8% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 72 | 31 | 13 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 85 | 360 | 67 | 30 | 13 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 82 | 344 | 62 | 29 | 13 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 4.98 | 5.06 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 77 | 327 | 63 | 26 | 12 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 57 | 25 | 12 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.03 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 51 | 24 | 11 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 167 | 141 | 709 | 3092 | 579 | 297 | 96 | 18.7% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 40 | 200 | 872 | 163 | 84 | 27 | 18.7% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keider Montero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 3.7% | — | 4.56 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 288 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 78 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 77 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 77 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 77 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 77 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 77 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 76 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 76 |
| Casey Sadler R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 12.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .250 | 3.69 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 144 | -1.21 | 2.21 | 385 | 75 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 75 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 75 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .329 | 5.09 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 407 | 75 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 75 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 75 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 75 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 3.66 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 57 | -1.03 | 2.39 | 396 | 75 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 75 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 75 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.16 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .356 | 5.73 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.57 | 4.61 | 177 | 75 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 75 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2030
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.3M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.9M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $11M | +$4M | ||