Keider Montero

P Detroit Tigers

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 145 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	32	29	147	4.85	4.69	20.6%	9.6%	1.2	K 19.4% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.93
2025	25	MIX2 levels	30	20	133	4.86	4.46	20.1%	8.1%	1.5	K 19.1% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.69
2026	26	MIX2 levels	33	26	159	3.40	3.79	17.2%	5.6%	3.1	K 17.1% · BB 5.6% · FIP 3.92
2027PROJ	27	MLBDET	19	19	114	4.41	4.59	18.1%	6.7%	1.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBDET	14	14	84	4.49	4.59	17.9%	6.8%	0.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBDET	11	11	66	4.65	4.75	17.4%	7.1%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs73

FB Velo47

K%15

Form4.64 ERA (proj 4.41) · K 20.0% (proj 18.1%) · BB 7.8% (proj 6.7%) · last 60d · 21 IP through Oct 27

CompsNick Martinez (age 26) · Claudio Vargas (age 27) · James McDonald (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.41

FIP4.59

K%18.1%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP114

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p1018.4%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$9M	+$7M
2028	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.1M
2029	Arb-3	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$13M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers	14	12	47	217	41	27	0	86%	3.4	12.8%	15.6%	-2.7%	0.0%	4.02	3.99	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers	14	12	47	217	41	27	0	86%	3.4	18.9%	12.4%	6.5%	0.0%	4.02	3.08	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	15	5	46	204	40	16	2	33%	3.1	13.3%	9.8%	3.5%	1.4%	2.14	3.97	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	15	5	46	204	40	16	2	33%	3.1	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	1.0%	2.14	2.97	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	5	5	23	100	23	11	0	100%	4.6	15.6%	13.8%	1.9%	0.0%	1.57	3.52	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	5	5	23	100	23	11	0	100%	4.6	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	0.0%	1.57	2.53	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	15	15	61	290	59	19	6	100%	4.1	15.7%	7.5%	8.1%	3.1%	5.28	4.42	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	15	15	61	290	59	19	6	100%	4.1	20.3%	6.6%	13.8%	2.1%	5.28	3.38	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	25	104	447	101	37	12	100%	4.1	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	4.0%	4.51	5.01	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	25	25	104	447	101	37	12	100%	4.1	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	2.7%	4.51	3.73	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	127	550	160	49	16	96%	4.7	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	3.5%	4.66	4.18	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	127	550	160	49	16	96%	4.7	29.1%	8.9%	20.2%	2.9%	4.66	3.37	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	29	147	636	131	61	24	91%	4.6	19.4%	9.1%	10.3%	4.2%	4.85	4.93	+0.8
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	29	147	636	131	61	24	91%	4.6	19.4%	9.1%	10.3%	4.2%	4.85	4.93	+0.8
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	29	147	636	131	61	24	91%	4.6	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.8%	4.85	4.69	+1.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	20	133	571	115	46	21	67%	4.4	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	4.0%	4.86	4.69	+1.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	20	133	571	115	46	21	67%	4.4	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	4.0%	4.86	4.69	+1.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	20	133	571	115	46	21	67%	4.4	20.1%	8.1%	12.1%	3.7%	4.86	4.46	+1.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	26	159	639	110	36	17	79%	4.8	17.1%	5.6%	11.5%	2.8%	3.40	3.92	+2.8
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	26	159	639	110	36	17	79%	4.8	17.1%	5.6%	11.5%	2.8%	3.40	3.92	+2.8
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	26	159	639	110	36	17	79%	4.8	17.2%	5.6%	11.6%	2.7%	3.40	3.79	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	53	344	1426	256	97	52	75%	4.8	18.0%	6.8%	11.2%	3.6%	4.08	4.42	+3.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	19	19	114	481	87	32	16	100%	6.0	18.1%	6.7%	11.4%	3.3%	4.41	4.59	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	89	375	67	26	13	100%	5.9	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	70	295	51	21	10	100%	5.8	17.4%	7.1%	10.3%	3.5%	4.73	4.83	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	55	231	39	17	9	100%	6.1	16.7%	7.4%	9.3%	3.7%	4.92	5.04	+0.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	41	174	28	13	7	100%	5.9	15.9%	7.7%	8.2%	3.9%	5.13	5.27	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	84	355	64	24	11	100%	6.0	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	3.2%	4.49	4.59	+0.7
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	66	279	48	20	9	100%	6.0	17.4%	7.1%	10.3%	3.4%	4.65	4.75	+0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	52	220	37	16	8	100%	5.8	16.7%	7.4%	9.3%	3.5%	4.83	4.95	+0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	39	165	26	13	6	100%	6.5	15.9%	7.7%	8.2%	3.8%	5.04	5.18	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	93	586	2448	432	170	87	84%	5.3	17.6%	7.0%	10.7%	3.5%	4.34	4.44	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	32	200	835	147	58	30	84%	5.3	17.6%	7.0%	10.7%	3.5%	4.34	4.44	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		196	163	848	3654	667	321	117	83%	4.3	18.2%	8.8%	9.5%	3.2%	4.26	4.42	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	38	200	862	157	76	27	83%	4.3	18.2%	8.8%	9.5%	3.2%	4.26	4.42	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 43 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.23 (+0.57)K% 23.6% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.63%	—	×0.860	20.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.24%	—	×0.900	7.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷0.872	×1.100	3.47%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 48 IPFIP 3.99 → 4.58 (+0.59)K% 24.1% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.11%	—	×0.860	20.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.39%	—	×0.900	12.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷0.792	×1.100	3.10%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 69 IPFIP 3.13 → 3.90 (+0.78)K% 29.6% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.64%	—	×0.810	24.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.10%	—	×1.100	11.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷1.055	×1.200	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 42 IPFIP 4.31 → 5.05 (+0.74)K% 25.8% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.82%	—	×0.860	22.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	4.40%	÷0.901	×1.100	5.37%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 16 IPFIP 1.78 → 2.99 (+1.20)K% 36.1% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.07%	—	×0.770	27.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.56%	—	×1.150	7.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷0.882	×1.250	2.32%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 1.78 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 104 IPFIP 3.71 → 5.01 (+1.30)K% 22.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.60%	—	×0.770	17.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.28%	—	×1.150	9.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.847	×1.250	3.96%

Result: FIP 3.71 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 61 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.42 (+1.07)K% 20.3% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.34%	—	×0.770	15.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.55%	—	×1.150	7.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷0.841	×1.250	3.07%

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Tigers West · 23 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.52 (+0.97)K% 23.0% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.680	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.00%	—	×1.250	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keider Montero (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.82	17.4%	10.4%	214	+0.23	—	—	—
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,288	73
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	72
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	71
Jay Witasick R 2000 · 4.76 FIP	27	SP-	4.76	17.4%	9.8%	3.4%	.318	3.20	24.2%	16.1%	193	-1.56	2.76	731	71
Jeff Niemann R 2010 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP	4.47	17.9%	7.5%	3.5%	.257	3.87	19.1%	12.5%	173	-0.60	2.96	544	69
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.40	13.9%	5.5%	286	+2.10	3.27	965	68
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	720	67
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	957	66
Max Scherzer R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	27	SP	4.17	20.9%	6.6%	3.6%	.310	2.90	28.6%	21.6%	622	-1.27	2.13	3,078	66
Hector Noesí R 2014 · 4.69 FIP	27	SP-	4.69	16.8%	7.5%	3.8%	.288	4.37	17.6%	9.5%	98	-0.32	3.73	613	66
Jeff Karstens R 2010 · 4.85 FIP	27	SP-	4.85	13.7%	4.2%	4.3%	.305	4.01	15.6%	11.6%	253	-0.84	3.39	592	66
Dave Bush R 2007 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	16.5%	5.3%	3.3%	.314	4.70	14.9%	8.1%	474	+0.49	3.65	1,141	65
Wade Davis R 2013 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP-	4.13	18.4%	9.1%	2.6%	.356	1.60	33.2%	25.0%	183	-2.53	0.85	986	65
Bud Norris R 2012 · 4.08 FIP	27	SP	4.08	22.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.295	3.91	19.4%	11.4%	425	-0.17	3.51	1,221	65
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	65
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	65
Joaquín Benoit R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	20.8%	6.8%	4.2%	.302	3.31	23.7%	14.5%	249	-1.18	1.99	1,064	65
Jason Hammel R 2010 · 3.45 FIP	27	SP	3.45	18.3%	6.0%	2.1%	.324	4.13	16.5%	8.2%	428	+0.68	3.10	1,810	64
Kris Benson R 2002 · 4.58 FIP	27	SP	4.58	13.7%	7.3%	3.1%	.307	4.09	14.4%	8.1%	480	-0.49	3.53	1,244	64
Ross Ohlendorf R 2010 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP	4.31	16.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.275	4.60	16.6%	9.3%	148	+0.29	3.30	617	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	17.7%	7.0%	1.38	4.38
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Jerry Garvin ('77-'82, 4 WAR*)	3.0	101	19.3%*	8.4%*	1.44*	4.52*
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Taylor Buchholz ('11)	1.6	78	17.7%	6.6%	1.19	4.28