Matthew Fisher

P Clearwater Threshers

Age 21 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP45OGV rank#104ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	MIX2 levels	15	14	50	4.17	3.52	27.0%	9.5%	—	K 19.4% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.89
2027PROJ	21	MLBPHI	1	1	3	4.85	4.85	21.0%	11.6%	0.0
2028PROJ51% MLB	22	MLBPHI	9	9	51	4.76	4.66	22.5%	10.4%	0.5
2029PROJ74% MLB	23	MLBPHI	16	16	88	4.58	4.48	23.3%	9.7%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 8.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsJosé López (age 21) · Will Sanders (age 22) · Brandon Young (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%21.0%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$60M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$8M	+$8M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$26M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	50	222	60	21	6	93%	3.3	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.6%	4.17	4.89	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	50	222	60	21	6	93%	3.3	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.6%	4.17	4.89	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	50	222	60	21	6	93%	3.3	27.0%	9.5%	17.6%	2.7%	4.17	3.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	PHI	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	21.0%	11.6%	9.5%	3.1%	4.85	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	100	421	94	44	13	100%	5.5	22.5%	10.4%	12.0%	3.0%	4.64	4.54	+1.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	PHI	22	22	119	501	117	49	15	100%	5.4	23.3%	9.7%	13.6%	2.9%	4.46	4.36	+1.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	PHI	22	22	125	526	125	49	15	100%	5.7	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.25	+1.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	PHI	21	21	123	518	125	48	15	100%	5.8	24.2%	9.2%	15.0%	2.9%	4.25	4.19	+1.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	123	519	127	47	15	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.1%	15.2%	2.9%	4.20	4.17	+1.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	120	507	124	47	15	100%	6.0	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.0%	4.21	4.21	+1.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	PHI	19	19	115	484	117	45	15	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.4%	14.9%	3.1%	4.26	4.30	+1.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	107	451	108	43	14	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.6%	14.4%	3.2%	4.36	4.43	+1.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	97	410	97	41	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.9%	13.8%	3.4%	4.51	4.61	+0.9
2037	31	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	87	368	86	38	13	100%	5.8	23.2%	10.2%	13.0%	3.6%	4.69	4.81	+0.6
2038	32	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	77	326	74	35	13	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.6%	12.2%	3.9%	4.90	5.03	+0.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	68	287	64	32	12	100%	6.2	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	4.2%	5.13	5.28	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	51	215	48	22	7	100%	5.7	22.5%	10.4%	12.0%	3.2%	4.76	4.66	+0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	PHI	16	16	88	372	87	36	12	100%	5.5	23.3%	9.7%	13.6%	3.2%	4.58	4.48	+1.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	PHI	19	19	104	439	105	41	14	100%	5.5	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	3.1%	4.45	4.37	+1.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	PHI	19	19	109	460	111	42	14	100%	5.7	24.2%	9.2%	15.0%	3.1%	4.37	4.31	+1.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	PHI	19	19	112	473	115	43	15	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.1%	15.2%	3.1%	4.32	4.29	+1.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	PHI	18	18	111	469	114	43	15	100%	6.2	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.33	+1.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	PHI	18	18	107	452	110	42	15	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.4%	14.9%	3.3%	4.38	4.42	+1.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	102	431	103	41	15	100%	6.0	24.0%	9.6%	14.4%	3.4%	4.49	4.56	+1.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	92	388	92	38	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.9%	13.8%	3.7%	4.65	4.75	+0.8
2037	31	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	83	350	81	36	14	100%	5.9	23.2%	10.2%	13.0%	3.9%	4.83	4.95	+0.6
2038	32	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	73	308	70	33	13	100%	6.1	22.8%	10.6%	12.2%	4.2%	5.05	5.18	+0.3
2039	33	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	65	274	61	30	12	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	4.5%	5.30	5.45	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	188	1097	4631	1098	449	159	100%	5.8	23.7%	9.7%	14.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.21	+15.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	82	29	100%	5.8	23.7%	9.7%	14.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.21	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		15	14	50	222	43	25	8	93%	3.3	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.6%	4.17	4.89	+13.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	56	200	894	173	102	32	93%	3.3	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.6%	4.17	4.89	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 33 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.66 (+1.21)K% 26.0% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.03%	—	×0.740	19.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.22%	—	×1.180	9.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.56%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Phillies · 17 IPFIP 3.60 → 5.33 (+1.73)K% 28.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.95%	—	×0.680	19.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.84%	—	×1.250	14.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matthew Fisher (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.37	23.3%	13.5%	343	-0.48	—	—	—
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	86
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	86
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	86
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	85
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	85
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	85
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	84
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	83
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	83
Miguel Almonte R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.41	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.53	3.06	247	83
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	82
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	82
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	81
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	81
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	81
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	81
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	103	23.5%	9.8%	1.23	4.47
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*