Brandon Young — OGILVIE

Brandon Young P Baltimore Orioles

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION157 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.29

FIP4.27

K%19.3%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 170 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p2518.5%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

FB+1.7 (54%)

SL (15%)

SI (13%)

CU (12%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	84	351	114	37	8	87%	3.7	24.5%	12.3%	12.2%	2.8%	3.52	4.13	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	84	351	114	37	8	87%	3.7	32.5%	10.5%	21.9%	2.3%	3.52	2.95	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	3	3	13	58	10	6	2	100%	4.4	14.0%	11.4%	2.6%	3.5%	2.02	5.30	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	3	3	13	58	10	6	2	100%	4.4	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	2.02	4.90	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	11	40	162	40	6	6	100%	3.6	17.9%	6.3%	11.6%	3.8%	4.50	4.49	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	11	40	162	40	6	6	100%	3.6	17.9%	6.3%	11.6%	3.8%	4.50	4.49	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	11	40	162	40	6	6	100%	3.6	24.7%	3.7%	21.0%	3.7%	4.50	3.50	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	111	463	132	37	8	89%	4.1	23.5%	7.4%	16.1%	1.9%	3.57	3.08	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	111	463	132	37	8	89%	4.1	23.5%	7.4%	16.1%	1.9%	3.57	3.08	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	111	463	132	37	8	89%	4.1	28.5%	8.0%	20.5%	1.7%	3.57	2.66	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	91	388	83	29	15	100%	4.8	19.3%	7.1%	12.2%	4.2%	4.95	4.66	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	91	388	83	29	15	100%	4.8	19.3%	7.1%	12.2%	4.2%	4.95	4.66	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	91	388	83	29	15	100%	4.8	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.9%	4.95	4.37	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	37	198	861	159	72	32	100%	5.4	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	3.7%	4.45	4.68	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	157	663	131	53	20	100%	5.6	19.3%	7.9%	11.3%	2.9%	3.43	4.06	+1.6
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	157	663	131	53	20	100%	5.6	19.3%	7.9%	11.3%	2.9%	3.43	4.06	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	BAL	3	3	17	58	19	3	0	100%	5.6	32.8%	5.2%	27.6%	0.0%	1.08	0.99	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	BAL	25	25	141	605	112	50	20	100%	5.6	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	3.3%	3.71	4.40	+0.8
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	BAL	25	25	141	605	112	50	20	100%	5.6	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	3.3%	3.71	4.40	+0.8
ROS	27	MLB MLE	BAL	2	2	13	54	10	4	2	100%	6.4	19.3%	8.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.29	4.27	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	BAL	2	2	13	55	11	4	2	100%	6.5	19.3%	8.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.29	4.27	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	170	717	141	57	22	—	—	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	3.0%	3.50	4.08	+1.7
FULL	27	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	154	648	141	57	22	—	—	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	3.4%	3.88	4.22	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	72	302	56	25	10	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.4%	4.82	4.85	+0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	68	289	52	25	10	100%	6.2	18.1%	8.5%	9.5%	3.6%	4.93	5.01	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	271	47	24	10	100%	5.8	17.4%	8.8%	8.5%	3.8%	5.10	5.21	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	68	287	54	24	10	100%	6.2	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.4%	4.82	4.85	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	65	274	50	23	10	100%	5.9	18.1%	8.5%	9.5%	3.6%	4.93	5.01	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	61	258	45	23	10	100%	6.1	17.4%	8.8%	8.5%	3.8%	5.10	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	72	405	1735	317	146	63	100%	5.6	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	3.6%	4.68	4.63	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	856	156	72	31	100%	5.7	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	3.6%	4.68	4.63	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		111	105	497	2085	435	174	62	95%	4.5	20.8%	8.4%	12.5%	3.0%	3.80	4.03	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	42	200	839	175	70	25	95%	4.5	20.8%	8.4%	12.5%	3.0%	3.80	4.03	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Young (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	19.3%	8.0%	3.4%	—	5.02	18.0%	9.5%	204	+0.30	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	79
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	77
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	77
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	76
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	76
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	76
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	75
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	75
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	75
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	75
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	75
Alex Cobb R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SP	5.26	14.0%	6.9%	4.5%	.366	4.37	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.89	2.74	844	75
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	75
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	74
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	73
Dustin Beggs R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	15.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.329	5.09	11.3%	3.6%	48	+0.70	3.40	407	73
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	73
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	73
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	73
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	70	18.4%	8.4%	1.37	4.89
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38