Brandon Young
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA5.20
FIP4.51
xFIP5.20
SIERA5.60
K%21.3%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%13.1%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5055
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p430.320
FB+1.7 (56%)
SL (15%)
SI (14%)
CU (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 23 | 20 | 84 | 351 | 114 | 37 | 8 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 3.52 | 4.11 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 3 | 3 | 13 | 58 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 2.02 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 11 | 11 | 40 | 162 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 27 | 24 | 111 | 463 | 132 | 37 | 8 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 1.9% | 3.57 | 3.13 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 19 | 19 | 91 | 388 | 83 | 29 | 15 | 19.7% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 4.95 | 4.58 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 3 | 16 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.56 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 72 | 28 | 12 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 98 | 402 | 83 | 31 | 12 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 3.89 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 369 | 77 | 30 | 13 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.63 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 74 | 30 | 12 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.68 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 70 | 29 | 12 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.75 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 72 | 26 | 12 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.57 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 74 | 23 | 12 | 22.8% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 4.50 | 4.42 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 69 | 22 | 11 | 22.1% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 63 | 22 | 11 | 21.4% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 57 | 21 | 11 | 20.7% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 4.75 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 52 | 20 | 10 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 4.90 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 86 | 80 | 356 | 1479 | 324 | 130 | 43 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 3.82 | 3.95 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 45 | 200 | 832 | 182 | 73 | 24 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 3.82 | 3.95 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Young (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 3.4% | — | 4.69 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 256 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 84 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 82 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 82 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 81 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 81 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 79 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 79 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 79 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 78 |
| Luis Cessa R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.54 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .272 | 4.05 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 167 | -0.49 | 3.15 | 891 | 77 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 77 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 76 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 76 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 76 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.69 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .284 | 4.86 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.17 | 3.49 | 1,080 | 76 |
| Tyler Duffey R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .265 | 2.81 | 30.4% | 22.3% | 158 | -1.08 | 2.34 | 803 | 76 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 75 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 75 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.73 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .251 | 4.86 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.13 | 3.73 | 399 | 75 |
| Nick Morreale R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .271 | 3.72 | 11.7% | -1.1% | 14 | -0.25 | 2.97 | 280 | 75 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $11M | +$5M | ||