Brandon Young
P
Baltimore Orioles
Age 27
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112102vR 93
ERA4.05
FIP4.05
K%19.8%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p2518.5%
xwOBA vs
p440.319
FB+1.7 (54%)
SL (14%)
SI (13%)
CU (11%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 84 | 351 | 114 | 37 | 8 | 87% | 3.7 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 3.52 | 4.07 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 84 | 351 | 114 | 37 | 8 | 87% | 3.7 | 32.5% | 10.5% | 21.9% | 2.3% | 3.52 | 2.95 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 3 | 3 | 13 | 58 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.02 | 5.06 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 3 | 3 | 13 | 58 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 2.02 | 4.90 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 11 | 11 | 40 | 162 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 3.6 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.18 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 11 | 11 | 40 | 162 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 3.6 | 24.7% | 3.7% | 21.0% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 111 | 463 | 132 | 37 | 8 | 89% | 4.1 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 1.8% | 3.57 | 3.11 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 111 | 463 | 132 | 37 | 8 | 89% | 4.1 | 28.5% | 8.0% | 20.5% | 1.7% | 3.57 | 2.66 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 91 | 388 | 83 | 29 | 15 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.7% | 7.3% | 12.4% | 4.1% | 4.95 | 4.63 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 91 | 388 | 83 | 29 | 15 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 13.9% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 4.37 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 18 | 18 | 101 | 421 | 86 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.9% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 3.03 | 3.62 | +2.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 9 | 56 | 237 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 157 | 658 | 133 | 54 | 16 | — | — | 20.2% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 3.40 | 3.78 | +3.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 141 | 593 | 133 | 54 | 16 | — | — | 22.4% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.82 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 302 | 57 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 289 | 53 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 59 | 331 | 1418 | 265 | 122 | 46 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.38 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 856 | 160 | 74 | 28 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 101 | 95 | 441 | 1843 | 397 | 162 | 50 | 94% | 4.4 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.89 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 43 | 200 | 836 | 180 | 73 | 23 | 94% | 4.4 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Young (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 3.4% | — | 4.77 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 140 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 80 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 79 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 79 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 78 |
| Markus Solbach R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 77 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 76 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 75 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 75 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.99 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.60 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.39 | 2.98 | 258 | 75 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 75 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 75 |
| Alex Cobb R 2027 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 74 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 74 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 74 |
| Jason Forjet R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 74 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 74 |
| Alex Williams R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.23 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 322 | 73 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 73 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 73 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 71 | 18.9% | 8.7% | 1.25 | 4.73 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |