Brandon Young

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	24	111	3.57	2.66	28.5%	8.0%	—	K 24.1% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.03
2025	26	MIX3 levels	19	19	91	4.95	4.37	21.4%	7.5%	1.1	K 19.5% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.64
2026	27	MIX2 levels	31	31	173	3.32	4.10	20.9%	8.8%	2.7	K 20.5% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.06
2027PROJ	28	MLBBAL	19	19	112	4.55	4.67	19.8%	9.0%	0.9
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBBAL	13	13	79	4.80	4.91	19.2%	9.2%	0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBBAL	10	10	59	5.00	5.13	18.5%	9.5%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.806First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$0.6M2030Arb-2$0.6M2031Ext$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo48

xwOBA vs44

K%34

Form4.44 ERA (proj 4.55) · K 26.5% (proj 19.8%) · BB 13.3% (proj 9.0%) · last 60d · 26 IP through Oct 27

CompsChase Anderson (age 28) · Brad Peacock (age 28) · Taylor Jungmann (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.55

FIP4.67

K%19.8%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP112

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p4324.3%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p440.319

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.806 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	84	351	114	37	8	87%	3.7	24.5%	12.3%	12.2%	2.8%	3.52	4.13	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	84	351	114	37	8	87%	3.7	32.5%	10.5%	21.9%	2.3%	3.52	2.95	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	3	3	13	58	10	6	2	100%	4.4	14.0%	11.4%	2.6%	3.5%	2.02	5.30	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	3	3	13	58	10	6	2	100%	4.4	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	2.02	4.90	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	11	40	162	40	6	6	100%	3.6	17.9%	6.3%	11.6%	3.8%	4.50	4.49	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	11	40	162	40	6	6	100%	3.6	24.7%	3.7%	21.0%	3.7%	4.50	3.50	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	111	463	132	37	8	89%	4.1	24.1%	7.4%	16.8%	1.9%	3.57	3.03	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	111	463	132	37	8	89%	4.1	24.1%	7.4%	16.8%	1.9%	3.57	3.03	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	111	463	132	37	8	89%	4.1	28.5%	8.0%	20.5%	1.7%	3.57	2.66	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	91	388	83	29	15	100%	4.8	19.5%	7.1%	12.4%	4.2%	4.95	4.64	+0.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	91	388	83	29	15	100%	4.8	19.5%	7.1%	12.4%	4.2%	4.95	4.64	+0.8
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	91	388	83	29	15	100%	4.8	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.9%	4.95	4.37	+1.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	173	727	152	64	22	100%	5.6	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	2.9%	3.32	4.06	+2.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	173	727	152	64	22	100%	5.6	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	2.9%	3.32	4.06	+2.7
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	173	727	152	64	22	100%	5.6	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	3.0%	3.32	4.10	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	40	214	925	180	83	34	100%	5.4	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.7%	4.28	4.64	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BAL	19	19	112	473	94	42	15	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	3.1%	4.55	4.67	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	83	350	67	32	12	100%	5.9	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.3%	4.72	4.83	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	62	263	49	25	9	100%	6.2	18.5%	9.5%	9.0%	3.5%	4.91	5.04	+0.3
2030	31	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	46	196	35	19	7	100%	5.8	17.8%	9.8%	7.9%	3.7%	5.12	5.27	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	79	334	64	31	11	100%	6.1	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.80	4.91	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	59	249	46	24	9	100%	5.9	18.5%	9.5%	9.0%	3.6%	5.00	5.13	+0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	44	186	33	18	7	100%	6.3	17.8%	9.8%	7.9%	3.9%	5.21	5.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	396	1693	323	156	62	100%	5.7	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.6%	4.60	4.66	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	855	163	79	31	100%	5.6	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.6%	4.60	4.66	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		114	108	513	2149	460	185	64	95%	4.5	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	3.0%	3.75	4.02	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	838	179	72	25	95%	4.5	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	3.0%	3.75	4.02	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 17 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.31 (+0.32)K% 32.8% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.76%	—	×0.860	28.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.17%	—	×0.900	4.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 27 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.50 (+0.52)K% 26.0% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.96%	—	×0.860	22.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×0.900	3.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷0.945	×1.100	3.36%

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 6 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.57 (+0.83)K% 32.1% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.14%	—	×0.770	24.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.150	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.229	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 89 IPFIP 3.08 → 3.38 (+0.30)K% 25.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.60%	—	×0.860	22.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.80%	—	×0.900	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.06%

Result: FIP 3.08 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 22 IPFIP 0.84 → 1.53 (+0.69)K% 40.9% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.91%	—	×0.810	33.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.100	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.249	×1.200	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 0.84 → 1.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 25 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.49 (+0.41)K% 22.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.12%	—	×0.810	17.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.77%	—	×1.100	6.35%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.208	×1.200	3.82%

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 10 IPFIP 3.75 → 5.29 (+1.54)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.64%	—	×0.770	19.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.13%	÷0.912	×1.250	7.03%

Result: FIP 3.75 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 13 IPFIP 4.85 → 5.30 (+0.46)K% 17.2% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.24%	—	×0.810	13.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.100	11.38%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.170	×1.200	3.54%

Result: FIP 4.85 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Young (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	19.8%	9.0%	3.1%	—	5.01	18.6%	9.2%	192	+0.34	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	83
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	78
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	72
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	71
Victor Santos R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP	4.67	13.9%	8.1%	3.1%	.278	4.90	16.0%	7.8%	179	+0.23	4.09	602	71
Hiram Burgos R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	28	SP	4.08	16.3%	9.1%	2.2%	.330	4.94	19.3%	11.8%	62	+0.86	3.40	384	70
Paul Clemens R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	17.6%	9.1%	3.3%	.271	4.72	14.9%	3.9%	53	+0.14	4.58	345	69
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	69
Tylor Megill R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP	4.61	17.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.322	3.33	27.2%	16.9%	205	-1.28	3.02	603	68
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	68
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	67
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	67
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	67
James Kaprielian R 2022 · 4.63 FIP	28	SP	4.63	17.0%	10.2%	3.0%	.260	5.62	17.6%	6.1%	110	+0.99	2.80	446	67
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	67
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	66
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	66
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	26	SP	4.65	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	278	66
Armando Galarraga R 2010 · 5.06 FIP	28	SP	5.06	12.0%	8.1%	3.5%	.258	6.67	14.1%	2.6%	67	+1.61	3.92	584	66
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	86	19.2%	9.1%	1.35	4.56
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Rich Folkers ('70-'77, -0 WAR*)	2.1	85	19.1%*	8.8%*	1.35*	4.91*
Roansy Contreras ('25)	1.2	82	19.3%	9.8%	1.38	4.77
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Mike Gardiner ('90-'95, -1 WAR*)	2.0	98	18.3%*	8.8%*	1.37*	5.10*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71