Juan Nuñez

P FCL Orioles

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#703ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+Aberdeen Iron…	7	4	29	2.45	2.86	32.2%	8.5%	—	K 24.8% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.94
2025	24	AABAL	8	3	14	7.07	3.81	39.4%	18.2%	—	K 31.9% · BB 20.0% · FIP 4.54
2026	25	MIX2 levels	2	2	2	9.00	7.10	33.3%	8.3%	—	K 33.3% · BB 8.3% · FIP 5.91
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	—	—	0	4.50	4.50	27.8%	13.7%	—
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBBAL	6	6	39	4.58	4.60	27.2%	13.1%	0.4
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBBAL	10	10	58	4.62	4.66	26.7%	12.9%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJ.P. France (age 26) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Mike Clevinger (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%27.8%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	10	46	186	62	15	1	91%	4.2	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	0.8%	2.14	2.88	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	10	46	186	62	15	1	91%	4.2	33.3%	8.1%	25.3%	0.5%	2.14	1.68	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	50	221	63	24	4	86%	3.6	19.6%	13.2%	6.4%	2.5%	3.58	4.49	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	50	221	63	24	4	86%	3.6	28.5%	10.9%	17.6%	1.8%	3.58	3.06	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	105	448	125	58	8	73%	4.0	21.0%	15.1%	5.9%	2.4%	3.96	4.54	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	105	448	125	58	8	73%	4.0	27.9%	12.9%	15.0%	1.8%	3.96	3.37	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	7	4	29	118	38	10	3	57%	4.2	24.8%	9.7%	15.1%	3.1%	2.45	3.94	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	7	4	29	118	38	10	3	57%	4.2	24.8%	9.7%	15.1%	3.1%	2.45	3.94	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	7	4	29	118	38	10	3	57%	4.2	32.2%	8.5%	23.7%	2.5%	2.45	2.86	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	8	3	14	66	26	12	2	38%	1.8	31.9%	20.0%	11.9%	2.9%	7.07	4.54	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	8	3	14	66	26	12	2	38%	1.8	31.9%	20.0%	11.9%	2.9%	7.07	4.54	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	8	3	14	66	26	12	2	38%	1.8	39.4%	18.2%	21.2%	3.0%	7.07	3.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	2	12	4	1	1	100%	1.0	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	8.3%	9.00	5.91	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	2	12	4	1	1	100%	1.0	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	8.3%	9.00	5.91	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	2	12	4	1	1	100%	1.0	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	8.3%	9.00	7.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	27.8%	13.7%	14.2%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	108	456	124	60	14	100%	6.0	27.2%	13.1%	14.1%	3.0%	4.50	4.52	+1.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	98	415	111	53	13	100%	6.1	26.7%	12.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.54	4.58	+0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	90	382	100	49	13	100%	6.0	26.2%	12.8%	13.4%	3.3%	4.63	4.69	+0.7
2031	30	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	82	346	89	45	12	100%	5.9	25.8%	13.0%	12.8%	3.5%	4.77	4.86	+0.5
2032	31	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	73	308	78	41	11	100%	6.1	25.4%	13.4%	12.0%	3.7%	4.95	5.06	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	39	165	45	22	5	100%	6.5	27.2%	13.1%	14.1%	3.2%	4.58	4.60	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	58	245	65	32	8	100%	5.8	26.7%	12.9%	13.8%	3.3%	4.62	4.66	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	64	270	71	35	9	100%	5.8	26.2%	12.8%	13.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.77	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	64	270	70	35	10	100%	5.8	25.8%	13.0%	12.8%	3.6%	4.86	4.95	+0.4
2032	31	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	61	258	65	34	10	100%	6.1	25.4%	13.4%	12.0%	3.9%	5.04	5.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	285	1205	316	157	42	100%	5.9	26.2%	13.0%	13.2%	3.5%	4.78	4.47	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	222	110	29	100%	6.0	26.2%	13.0%	13.2%	3.5%	4.78	4.47	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		68	50	247	1051	234	141	24	74%	3.6	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	2.3%	3.58	4.18	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	41	200	852	190	114	20	74%	3.6	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	2.3%	3.58	4.18	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 14 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.54 (+0.80)K% 39.4% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.39%	—	×0.810	31.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×1.100	20.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.248	×1.200	2.91%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 29 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.94 (+1.09)K% 32.2% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.20%	—	×0.770	24.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×1.150	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷1.026	×1.250	3.10%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 55 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.74 (+1.14)K% 31.2% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.17%	—	×0.740	23.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.26%	—	×1.180	13.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.020	×1.300	1.65%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 50 IPFIP 4.17 → 5.39 (+1.22)K% 24.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.42%	—	×0.770	18.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.75%	—	×1.150	16.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷0.912	×1.250	3.16%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Orioles · 36 IPFIP 2.38 → 4.09 (+1.70)K% 35.2% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.22%	—	×0.680	23.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×1.250	8.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷1.010	×1.400	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 15 IPFIP 4.80 → 5.53 (+0.73)K% 11.3% → 8.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.29%	—	×0.740	8.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.97%	—	×1.180	24.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.128	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.80 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Twins · 46 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.88 (+1.27)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.06%	—	×1.250	10.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.54%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.75%

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Nuñez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.59	26.8%	13.8%	297	+0.09	—	—	—
J.P. France R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	26	SP-	4.04	27.6%	11.3%	3.4%	.306	4.38	21.0%	11.5%	292	+0.34	4.04	577	77
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	75
Mike Clevinger R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	26	SP-	3.64	26.5%	11.3%	2.5%	.274	3.11	28.3%	20.3%	368	-0.53	2.28	1,236	73
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	72
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	71
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	71
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	714	70
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	70
Dylan Cumming R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	25	SP-	3.75	21.6%	9.8%	2.2%	.337	4.63	16.6%	8.0%	198	+0.88	3.75	406	68
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	68
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	68
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	68
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	68
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	68
Osvaldo Bido R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SP-	5.11	21.2%	13.3%	3.9%	.281	4.28	21.2%	12.1%	322	-0.83	3.67	732	68
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	68
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	67
Chayce McDermott R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP	3.80	28.3%	12.3%	2.8%	.314	4.33	23.3%	8.3%	108	+0.53	3.27	449	67
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	67
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	96	26.7%	13.2%	1.25	4.62
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*