Dylan Cumming
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 175 lbs
AA
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%17.5%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A | San Jose Giants | 34 | 7 | 92 | 397 | 86 | 36 | 5 | 21% | 2.7 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 2.93 | 4.25 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | San Jose Giants | 34 | 7 | 92 | 397 | 86 | 36 | 5 | 21% | 2.7 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 1.3% | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 116 | 508 | 138 | 45 | 10 | 74% | 4.3 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 4.11 | 3.69 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 116 | 508 | 138 | 45 | 10 | 74% | 4.3 | 27.2% | 8.9% | 18.3% | 2.0% | 4.11 | 3.01 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 14 | 76 | 336 | 75 | 25 | 6 | 48% | 2.6 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 5.00 | 4.04 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 14 | 76 | 336 | 75 | 25 | 6 | 48% | 2.6 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 14.9% | 1.8% | 5.00 | 3.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 17 | 16 | 82 | 363 | 75 | 25 | 11 | 94% | 4.8 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 5.16 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 49 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 148 | 643 | 124 | 52 | 19 | — | — | 19.3% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.96 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.44 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 83 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.44 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 107 | 57 | 366 | 1604 | 292 | 148 | 41 | 53% | 3.4 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.13 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 31 | 200 | 877 | 160 | 81 | 22 | 53% | 3.4 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Cumming (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.81 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 133 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 85 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 83 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 83 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 81 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 80 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 80 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 79 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 79 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 78 |
| Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 78 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 77 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 77 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 77 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 77 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 77 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 76 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 76 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 0.9% | .379 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 143 | 76 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 76 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 1.10 | 4.75 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |