Dylan Cumming — OGILVIE

Dylan Cumming P Birmingham Barons

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 175 lbs AA peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION123 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%17.5%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	34	7	92	397	86	36	5	21%	2.7	16.0%	10.7%	5.3%	1.8%	2.93	4.11	—
2023	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	34	7	92	397	86	36	5	21%	2.7	16.0%	10.7%	5.3%	1.8%	2.93	4.11	—
2023	24	A RAW	San Jose Giants	34	7	92	397	86	36	5	21%	2.7	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	1.3%	2.93	3.11	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	116	508	138	45	10	74%	4.3	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	2.2%	4.11	3.75	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	116	508	138	45	10	74%	4.3	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	2.2%	4.11	3.75	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	116	508	138	45	10	74%	4.3	27.2%	8.9%	18.3%	2.0%	4.11	3.01	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	14	76	336	75	25	6	48%	2.6	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	2.3%	5.00	3.96	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	14	76	336	75	25	6	48%	2.6	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	2.3%	5.00	3.96	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	14	76	336	75	25	6	48%	2.6	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	1.8%	5.00	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	26	25	123	546	109	43	18	96%	4.7	16.0%	8.7%	7.3%	4.0%	5.65	5.05	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	26	25	123	546	109	43	18	96%	4.7	16.0%	8.7%	7.3%	4.0%	5.65	5.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A+ RAW	CWS	5	5	22	97	28	4	4	100%	4.4	28.9%	4.1%	24.7%	4.1%	5.73	3.45	—
2026	27	AA RAW	CWS	21	20	101	449	81	39	14	95%	4.8	18.0%	8.7%	9.4%	3.1%	5.63	4.39	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CWS	1	1	6	27	5	3	1	100%	6.4	17.5%	9.4%	8.1%	2.7%	4.67	4.67	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	129	573	114	46	19	—	—	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.3%	5.60	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	68	287	51	27	8	100%	6.2	17.9%	9.5%	8.5%	2.8%	4.69	4.72	+0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	65	274	50	27	8	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.7%	8.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.82	+0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	CWS	4	4	26	110	20	10	3	100%	6.5	17.9%	9.5%	8.5%	2.8%	4.69	4.72	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	36	152	28	15	5	100%	6.0	18.1%	9.7%	8.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.82	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	62	261	47	25	8	100%	6.2	18.0%	9.6%	8.4%	2.9%	4.73	4.40	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	152	81	26	100%	6.0	18.0%	9.6%	8.4%	2.9%	4.73	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		116	66	406	1787	319	168	48	57%	3.5	17.9%	9.4%	8.5%	2.7%	4.47	4.27	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	32	200	880	157	83	24	57%	3.5	17.9%	9.4%	8.5%	2.7%	4.47	4.27	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Cumming (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	17.5%	9.4%	2.7%	—	4.77	18.0%	8.4%	133	+0.10	—	—	—
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	82
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	82
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	82
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	80
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	79
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	78
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	78
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	78
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	78
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	77
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	77
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	77
Mikey O'Brien R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	25	SP-	3.57	13.5%	8.1%	1.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	110	77
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	76
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	17.8%	9.5%	1.10	4.71
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79