Carmen Mlodzinski

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	56	4	69	4.30	3.64	22.4%	8.8%	0.7	K 21.0% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.97
2025	26	MIX2 levels	37	15	115	3.22	3.07	21.7%	7.0%	2.1	K 21.3% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.16
2026	27	MLBPIT	37	12	123	3.95	3.63	18.1%	8.0%	1.4
2027PROJ	28	MLBPIT	82	0	86	4.01	4.03	19.8%	7.7%	0.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBPIT	52	0	55	4.12	4.19	19.2%	7.9%	0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBPIT	36	0	38	4.29	4.40	18.5%	8.2%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo57

xwOBA vs29

K%22

Form2.60 ERA (proj 4.01) · K 16.9% (proj 19.8%) · BB 11.3% (proj 7.7%) ▼▼ last 60d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsJoaquín Benoit (age 28) · Todd Wellemeyer (age 28) · Scott Sullivan (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.01

FIP4.03

K%19.8%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP86

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p1920.9%

p2218.1%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	52	224	66	22	7	93%	3.5	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	3.3%	3.96	4.33	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	52	224	66	22	7	93%	3.5	29.5%	9.8%	19.6%	3.1%	3.96	3.58	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	22	105	460	111	40	10	81%	3.9	19.5%	9.6%	10.0%	2.4%	4.78	3.98	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	27	22	105	460	111	40	10	81%	3.9	24.1%	8.7%	15.4%	2.2%	4.78	3.37	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	63	271	66	29	5	2%	1.1	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	1.9%	2.59	3.55	+0.7
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	1	63	271	66	29	5	2%	1.1	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	1.8%	2.59	3.42	+0.8
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	4	69	294	66	26	7	7%	1.2	21.0%	8.7%	12.3%	2.8%	4.30	3.97	+0.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	4	69	294	66	26	7	7%	1.2	21.0%	8.7%	12.3%	2.8%	4.30	3.97	+0.5
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	4	69	294	66	26	7	7%	1.2	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.4%	4.30	3.64	+0.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	15	115	483	105	34	8	41%	3.1	21.3%	6.9%	14.4%	1.8%	3.22	3.16	+1.9
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	15	115	483	105	34	8	41%	3.1	21.3%	6.9%	14.4%	1.8%	3.22	3.16	+1.9
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	15	115	483	105	34	8	41%	3.1	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	1.7%	3.22	3.07	+2.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	37	12	123	537	97	43	10	32%	3.3	18.1%	8.0%	10.1%	2.0%	3.95	3.69	+1.3
2026	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	37	12	123	537	97	43	10	32%	3.3	18.1%	8.0%	10.1%	2.0%	3.95	3.69	+1.3
2026	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	37	12	123	537	97	43	10	32%	3.3	18.1%	8.0%	10.1%	1.9%	3.95	3.63	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			146	29	309	1317	266	105	24	20%	2.1	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	1.8%	3.53	3.41	+4.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	PIT	82	0	86	363	72	28	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	2.3%	4.01	4.03	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PIT	55	0	58	244	47	19	6	0%	1.0	19.2%	7.9%	11.3%	2.4%	4.12	4.19	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	PIT	38	0	40	171	32	14	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	8.2%	10.3%	2.6%	4.29	4.40	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	PIT	52	0	55	232	45	18	6	0%	1.1	19.2%	7.9%	11.3%	2.4%	4.12	4.19	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	PIT	36	0	38	160	30	13	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	8.2%	10.3%	2.6%	4.29	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		235	29	402	1710	341	137	34	12%	1.7	19.9%	8.0%	11.9%	2.0%	3.68	3.52	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		117	14	200	851	170	68	17	12%	1.7	19.9%	8.0%	11.9%	2.0%	3.68	3.52	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		227	68	527	2269	465	198	51	30%	2.3	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	2.3%	3.84	3.72	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	26	200	861	176	75	20	30%	2.3	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	2.3%	3.84	3.72	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 16 IPFIP 2.37 → 2.53 (+0.16)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.94%	—	×0.900	9.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.915	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 17 IPFIP 5.32 → 6.02 (+0.70)K% 21.2% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.25%	—	×0.860	18.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.909	×1.100	6.05%

Result: FIP 5.32 → 6.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 27 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.22 (+0.19)K% 26.9% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.89%	—	×0.860	23.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×0.900	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.095	×1.100	1.69%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAltoona Curve · 105 IPFIP 3.36 → 3.98 (+0.63)K% 24.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.13%	—	×0.810	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.100	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.084	×1.200	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 50 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.33 (+0.78)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.05%	—	×0.770	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.39%	—	×1.150	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷1.238	×1.250	3.32%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 148).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carmen Mlodzinski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	19.8%	7.7%	2.3%	—	4.28	18.9%	10.9%	98	+0.25	—	—	—
Joaquín Benoit R 2005 · 3.96 FIP	28	SW	3.96	21.1%	10.3%	2.4%	.246	3.39	24.2%	13.9%	207	-0.57	1.99	1,064	73
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	66
Scott Sullivan R 2000 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	21.9%	6.8%	3.2%	.244	3.87	20.1%	13.0%	246	+0.00	3.42	726	65
Austin Pruitt R 2018 · 3.29 FIP	28	SU	3.29	19.3%	5.1%	2.1%	.279	4.18	20.6%	15.0%	113	+0.89	2.94	819	65
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	64
Kevin Gregg R 2006 · 3.73 FIP	28	SU	3.73	20.8%	6.2%	2.9%	.326	3.84	22.8%	12.2%	221	+0.11	2.93	711	64
Drew VerHagen R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	28	SW	4.11	19.5%	7.3%	3.2%	.344	6.00	17.0%	4.7%	22	+1.89	2.80	487	64
Julio Santana R 2000 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	19.8%	10.6%	3.8%	.301	4.97	15.9%	5.0%	57	+0.14	3.70	471	63
Rocky Biddle R 2004 · 5.15 FIP	28	SW	5.15	14.0%	7.7%	4.1%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	379	63
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	63
Mike Wright Jr. R 2018 · 4.16 FIP	28	SU	4.16	19.1%	9.0%	2.8%	.333	3.83	19.4%	11.3%	201	-0.33	3.76	725	63
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	63
Derek Lowe R 2001 · 2.96 FIP	28	SU	2.96	20.3%	5.0%	1.7%	.325	3.80	13.3%	6.2%	606	+0.84	2.78	2,671	63
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	63
Jim Brower R 2001 · 4.60 FIP	28	SW	4.60	16.8%	9.8%	3.0%	.260	3.85	16.0%	7.3%	273	-0.75	3.67	571	62
Jorge Sosa R 2005 · 4.23 FIP	28	SW	4.23	14.7%	9.7%	2.1%	.259	4.99	14.0%	6.8%	252	+0.76	4.06	773	62
Seth Lugo R 2018 · 2.93 FIP	28	SU	2.93	25.1%	5.9%	2.2%	.263	2.99	30.9%	25.3%	163	+0.06	2.19	1,388	62
Matt Andriese R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SU	4.47	22.9%	5.9%	4.7%	.304	3.65	24.7%	17.5%	151	-0.82	3.08	744	62
Rick Bauer R 2004 · 3.80 FIP	27	SU	3.80	16.1%	8.7%	1.7%	.266	3.90	11.6%	3.3%	71	+0.10	3.78	303	61
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	70	19.9%	8.1%	0.79	3.74
Tom Johnson ('74-'78, 3 WAR*)	1.4	68	21.7%*	7.8%*	0.86*	3.69*
Gary Lucas ('80-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.3	84	20.3%*	8.1%*	0.84*	3.58*
Cecil Upshaw ('66-'75, 6 WAR*)	2.8	70	18.2%*	7.7%*	0.94*	3.77*
Alexi Ogando ('18)	2.5	72	19.3%	8.8%	0.95	3.50
Steve Karsay ('06)	3.0	67	17.6%	7.6%	0.88	4.01
Adam Warren ('19)	2.5	70	20.8%	8.3%	1.02	3.53