Carmen Mlodzinski

Carmen Mlodzinski P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 94

ERA3.64

FIP3.65

K%19.1%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p1920.9%

p2117.9%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

SI (18%)

CT (3%)

CU (11%)

SL-0.8 (15%)

FB-0.9 (45%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	52	224	66	22	7	93%	3.5	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	3.3%	3.96	4.33	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	52	224	66	22	7	93%	3.5	29.5%	9.8%	19.6%	3.1%	3.96	3.58	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	22	105	460	111	40	10	81%	3.9	19.5%	9.6%	10.0%	2.4%	4.78	3.98	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	27	22	105	460	111	40	10	81%	3.9	24.1%	8.7%	15.4%	2.2%	4.78	3.37	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	63	271	66	29	5	2%	1.1	22.3%	10.3%	12.1%	1.9%	2.59	3.58	+0.7
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	63	271	66	29	5	2%	1.1	22.3%	10.3%	12.1%	1.9%	2.59	3.58	+0.7
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	1	63	271	66	29	5	2%	1.1	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	1.8%	2.59	3.42	+0.8
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	4	69	294	66	26	7	7%	1.2	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	2.8%	4.30	3.98	+0.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	4	69	294	66	26	7	7%	1.2	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	2.8%	4.30	3.98	+0.5
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	4	69	294	66	26	7	7%	1.2	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.4%	4.30	3.64	+0.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	15	115	483	105	34	8	41%	3.1	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	1.8%	3.22	3.17	+1.9
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	15	115	483	105	34	8	41%	3.1	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	1.8%	3.22	3.17	+1.9
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	15	115	483	105	34	8	41%	3.1	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	1.7%	3.22	3.07	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			142	29	300	1276	258	99	23	20%	2.1	20.2%	7.8%	12.5%	1.8%	3.48	3.37	+4.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	33	12	114	496	89	37	9	36%	3.5	17.9%	7.5%	10.5%	2.0%	3.87	3.61	+1.3
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	33	12	114	496	89	37	9	36%	3.5	17.9%	7.5%	10.5%	2.0%	3.87	3.61	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	PIT	33	12	114	496	89	37	9	36%	3.5	17.9%	7.5%	10.5%	1.8%	3.87	3.53	+1.4
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	PIT	33	12	114	496	89	37	9	36%	3.5	17.9%	7.5%	10.5%	1.8%	3.87	3.53	+1.4
ROS	27	MLB MLE	PIT	6	0	7	28	5	2	1	0%	1.1	19.1%	7.4%	11.6%	2.2%	3.64	3.65	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	PIT	7	0	7	30	6	2	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	7.4%	11.6%	2.2%	3.64	3.65	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	121	524	94	39	10	—	—	18.0%	7.5%	10.5%	1.8%	3.86	3.61	+1.9
FULL	27	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	121	509	94	39	10	—	—	18.5%	7.7%	10.8%	1.9%	3.86	3.54	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PIT	72	0	76	320	62	24	7	0%	1.1	19.3%	7.6%	11.7%	2.2%	3.96	4.00	+0.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	PIT	69	0	72	306	57	24	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	2.3%	4.08	4.16	+0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	PIT	65	0	68	288	52	23	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	2.5%	4.25	4.36	+0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	PIT	69	0	72	304	59	23	7	0%	1.0	19.3%	7.6%	11.7%	2.2%	3.96	4.00	+0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	PIT	66	0	69	291	54	23	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	2.3%	4.08	4.16	+0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	PIT	62	0	65	274	49	22	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	2.5%	4.25	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		344	29	512	2172	426	169	44	8%	1.5	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	2.0%	3.73	3.54	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		134	11	200	849	166	66	17	8%	1.5	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	2.0%	3.73	3.54	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		223	68	518	2228	455	192	50	30%	2.3	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.3%	3.82	3.71	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	26	200	860	176	74	19	30%	2.3	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.3%	3.82	3.71	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carmen Mlodzinski (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.83	21.8%	7.4%	2.3%	—	4.17	18.7%	10.9%	216	+0.34	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	75
Jordan Lyles R 2018 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	22.6%	6.7%	3.1%	.284	4.78	20.2%	12.1%	379	+1.05	3.44	1,080	74
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	71
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	71
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	71
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	71
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	71
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	70
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	70
Adam Warren R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	27	SW	3.32	19.5%	7.1%	1.8%	.272	3.72	21.9%	14.4%	174	+0.40	2.72	392	70
Chad Jenkins R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	27	SW	3.59	13.1%	6.5%	1.4%	.296	3.92	12.5%	0.4%	30	+0.33	3.59	123	70
Randall Delgado R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	27	SW	3.09	23.2%	5.4%	2.3%	.302	4.83	16.1%	8.3%	81	+1.74	3.09	290	69
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	69
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	69
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	68
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	68
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	68
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	68
Kurt Heyer R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	14.1%	6.7%	2.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	178	68
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	74	19.5%	7.7%	0.89	4.02
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66