Carmen Mlodzinski
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
+1.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.3 · 2027
ERA3.61
FIP3.85
xFIP3.44
SIERA3.61
K%21.7%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%13.8%
IP78
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p570.305
SI (22%)
CU (11%)
SL-0.8 (10%)
FB-0.9 (50%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 15 | 14 | 52 | 224 | 66 | 22 | 7 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 3.96 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 27 | 22 | 105 | 460 | 111 | 40 | 10 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 4.78 | 3.94 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55 | 1 | 63 | 271 | 66 | 29 | 5 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 1.9% | 2.59 | 3.60 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56 | 4 | 69 | 294 | 66 | 26 | 7 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 3.98 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 37 | 15 | 115 | 483 | 105 | 34 | 8 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 3.22 | 3.11 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4 | 3 | 20 | 87 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 1.77 | 2.32 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PIT | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 56 | 20 | 5 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 3.06 | 3.24 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 78 | 331 | 76 | 28 | 5 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 1.4% | 2.72 | 3.00 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 74 | 27 | 6 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.9% | 3.56 | 3.64 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 71 | 26 | 6 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 3.65 | 3.72 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 67 | 26 | 6 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 3.74 | 3.81 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 63 | 25 | 6 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 3.84 | 3.91 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 59 | 25 | 6 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 3.95 | 4.03 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 55 | 24 | 6 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 4.07 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 50 | 23 | 6 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.35 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 41 | 22 | 6 | 17.8% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 17.0% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 194 | 59 | 424 | 1819 | 389 | 167 | 39 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 3.71 | 3.65 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 28 | 200 | 857 | 183 | 79 | 18 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 3.71 | 3.65 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carmen Mlodzinski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.76 | 22.9% | 7.9% | 2.2% | — | 3.72 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 225 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jorge Rondon R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.32 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 0.9% | .290 | 3.61 | 14.7% | 4.4% | 70 | +0.29 | 3.32 | 145 | 75 |
| Pedro Beato R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.46 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.6% | .276 | 3.94 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.48 | 3.46 | 295 | 74 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 74 |
| David Martinez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.95 | 14.2% | 8.3% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.75 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 230 | +0.80 | 3.95 | 297 | 74 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.51 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .306 | 4.05 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 66 | +0.54 | 3.51 | 134 | 73 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 73 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.46 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.13 | 4.33 | 125 | 73 |
| Bryan Morris R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.49 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 1.1% | .318 | 4.86 | 16.7% | 5.9% | 39 | +1.37 | 3.49 | 102 | 73 |
| John Church R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.85 | 13.2% | 5.7% | 2.1% | .278 | 2.78 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 30 | -1.07 | 2.78 | 101 | 72 |
| DJ Johnson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 15.2% | 8.9% | 1.5% | .253 | 3.06 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 128 | -0.69 | 2.39 | 334 | 72 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.04 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.38 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 44 | +0.34 | 4.04 | 101 | 72 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.05 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 106 | +0.87 | 3.18 | 253 | 72 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.58 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.93 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 191 | +1.35 | 3.58 | 291 | 72 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.05 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.12 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | +0.07 | 3.40 | 556 | 71 |
| Conor Mullee R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.28 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 1.4% | .290 | 2.64 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 55 | -0.64 | 2.17 | 110 | 71 |
| Zack Thornton R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.93 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 0.8% | .297 | 4.15 | 11.8% | 5.0% | 40 | +1.22 | 2.93 | 101 | 71 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .311 | 3.46 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 157 | 71 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 71 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.44 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .348 | 2.85 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.59 | 2.85 | 199 | 71 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 17.2% | 11.1% | 0.5% | .293 | 3.71 | 23.3% | 12.1% | 120 | +0.40 | 2.91 | 334 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2023
Service 2.471 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +1.3 | $11M | +$8M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +1.2 | $10M | +$6M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $6M | +1.0 | $9M | +$3M |
| Totals | $14M | $39M | +$25M | ||