Carmen Mlodzinski
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91
ERA3.52
FIP3.54
K%19.7%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP78
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p1920.9%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p290.337
SI (17%)
CU (12%)
SL-0.8 (16%)
FB-0.9 (45%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 52 | 224 | 66 | 22 | 7 | 93% | 3.5 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 4.04 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 52 | 224 | 66 | 22 | 7 | 93% | 3.5 | 29.5% | 9.8% | 19.6% | 3.1% | 3.96 | 3.58 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 27 | 22 | 105 | 460 | 111 | 40 | 10 | 81% | 3.9 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 4.78 | 3.89 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 27 | 22 | 105 | 460 | 111 | 40 | 10 | 81% | 3.9 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 4.78 | 3.37 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 1 | 63 | 271 | 66 | 29 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 2.59 | 3.53 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 1 | 63 | 271 | 66 | 29 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 1.8% | 2.59 | 3.42 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 56 | 4 | 69 | 294 | 66 | 26 | 7 | 7% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 56 | 4 | 69 | 294 | 66 | 26 | 7 | 7% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 4.30 | 3.64 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 15 | 115 | 483 | 105 | 34 | 8 | 41% | 3.1 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 1.7% | 3.22 | 3.12 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 15 | 115 | 483 | 105 | 34 | 8 | 41% | 3.1 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 14.7% | 1.7% | 3.22 | 3.07 | +3.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 20 | 9 | 81 | 348 | 64 | 28 | 6 | 45% | 4.0 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 3.24 | 3.51 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 72 | 0 | 76 | 320 | 64 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 2.1% | 3.94 | 3.98 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 69 | 0 | 72 | 306 | 59 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 4.14 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 65 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 61 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 2.1% | 3.94 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 325 | 26 | 472 | 1996 | 401 | 161 | 40 | 8% | 1.5 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 3.60 | 3.52 | +10.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 138 | 11 | 200 | 846 | 170 | 68 | 17 | 8% | 1.5 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 3.60 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 210 | 65 | 485 | 2080 | 433 | 187 | 44 | 31% | 2.3 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 3.71 | 3.64 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 27 | 200 | 858 | 179 | 77 | 18 | 31% | 2.3 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 3.71 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carmen Mlodzinski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.82 | 21.9% | 7.6% | 2.2% | — | 4.15 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 216 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 75 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 71 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 71 |
| Elian Leyva R 2028 · 3.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.16 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.1% | .308 | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 71 | +1.14 | 3.16 | 158 | 70 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 70 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 70 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .272 | 3.73 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 174 | +0.42 | 2.71 | 392 | 70 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 70 |
| Chad Jenkins R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 3.88 | 12.5% | 0.4% | 30 | +0.26 | 3.62 | 123 | 69 |
| Heath Holder R 2025 · 3.12 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.12 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .263 | 5.32 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.20 | 2.74 | 367 | 68 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 68 |
| DJ Baxendale R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.68 | 18.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .355 | 5.84 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 49 | +2.16 | 2.81 | 426 | 68 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 68 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 68 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 67 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .284 | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.05 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 67 |
| Kurt Heyer R 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.03 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 178 | 67 |
| Tristan Beck R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.69 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 4.2% | .271 | 3.68 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 148 | -1.01 | 3.52 | 473 | 67 |
| Nick Morreale R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .271 | 3.72 | 11.7% | -1.1% | 14 | -0.20 | 2.97 | 280 | 67 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 74 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 0.88 | 4.00 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Adam Warren ('19) | 5 | 67 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 1.08 | 3.55 |
| Derek Law ('24) | 5 | 60 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 0.88 | 3.47 |