Seth Lugo
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 36
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION159 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA3.63
FIP4.00
xFIP3.59
SIERA3.80
K%19.8%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%12.3%
IP159
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p3022.5%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SL+4.3 (25%)
FB+3.1 (37%)
CT+1.0 (14%)
CH+0.7 (8%)
SI (20%)
CU (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | 24 | 24 | 136 | 580 | 127 | 34 | 11 | 18.1% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 3.84 | 3.42 | +3.2 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 38 | 22 | 137 | 601 | 107 | 38 | 17 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.02 | +2.2 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 23 | 21 | 121 | 519 | 104 | 27 | 16 | 19.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 3.65 | +2.5 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 54 | 5 | 101 | 410 | 103 | 24 | 9 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 2.66 | 2.93 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 61 | 0 | 80 | 314 | 104 | 12 | 8 | 33.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.70 | 2.19 | +2.6 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 16 | 7 | 37 | 160 | 47 | 9 | 8 | 29.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.15 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 50 | 1 | 51 | 217 | 60 | 21 | 6 | 28.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 3.37 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 62 | 0 | 65 | 272 | 69 | 17 | 9 | 25.4% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 3.60 | 3.57 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 26 | 26 | 146 | 604 | 140 | 36 | 19 | 23.2% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 3.57 | 3.75 | +2.8 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 33 | 33 | 207 | 836 | 181 | 47 | 16 | 21.7% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 3.00 | 3.11 | +5.5 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 26 | 26 | 145 | 611 | 125 | 54 | 27 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 4.15 | 5.09 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 66 | 25 | 7 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 3.86 | 3.53 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 67 | 25 | 10 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 3.63 | 4.00 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 36 | MLB | KC | — | — | 159 | 670 | 133 | 50 | 17 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 3.74 | 3.76 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | KC | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 110 | 48 | 20 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.78 | +1.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 427 | 179 | 1306 | 5458 | 1204 | 347 | 156 | 22.1% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 3.73 | 3.61 | +27.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 27 | 200 | 836 | 184 | 53 | 24 | 22.1% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 3.73 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Lugo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 3.5% | — | 4.78 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 139 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 44 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.22 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 348 | 43 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.31 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 485 | 42 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 42 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 42 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 41 |
| Aaron Harang R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 40 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 39 |
| Kameron Loe R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.47 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 201 | 38 |
| Brad Penny R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 38 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.11 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 352 | 37 |
| Angel Castro R 2024 · 3.48 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.48 | 14.5% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 292 | 36 |
| Dan Haren R 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.40 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 187 | 36 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.81 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 3.8% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 720 | 35 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 28 |
| Jake Peavy R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 28 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 27 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 27 |
| Jason Hammel R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 645 | 26 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.49 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 283 | 26 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.