Seth Lugo
P
Kansas City Royals
+1.0
WAR
Age 36
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.1 · 2027
ERA4.12
FIP4.53
xFIP3.59
SIERA3.80
K%21.3%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%13.8%
IP140
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p3022.5%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SL+4.3 (25%)
FB+3.1 (36%)
CT+1.0 (15%)
CH+0.7 (8%)
SI (20%)
CU (19%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | 24 | 24 | 136 | 580 | 127 | 34 | 11 | 18.1% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 3.84 | 3.52 | +2.7 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 38 | 22 | 137 | 601 | 107 | 38 | 17 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 4.05 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 23 | 21 | 121 | 519 | 104 | 27 | 16 | 19.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 3.76 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 54 | 5 | 101 | 410 | 103 | 24 | 9 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 2.66 | 2.96 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 61 | 0 | 80 | 314 | 104 | 12 | 8 | 33.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.70 | 2.11 | +2.7 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 16 | 7 | 37 | 160 | 47 | 9 | 8 | 29.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.15 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 50 | 1 | 51 | 217 | 60 | 21 | 6 | 28.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 3.37 | 3.52 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 62 | 0 | 65 | 272 | 69 | 17 | 9 | 25.4% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 3.60 | 3.62 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 26 | 26 | 146 | 604 | 140 | 36 | 19 | 23.2% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 3.57 | 3.71 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 33 | 33 | 207 | 836 | 181 | 47 | 16 | 21.7% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 3.00 | 3.07 | +5.2 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 26 | 26 | 145 | 611 | 125 | 54 | 27 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 4.15 | 5.04 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 4 | 4 | 24 | 92 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 22.8% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.48 | 2.00 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 94 | 33 | 13 | 21.0% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 3.33 | 3.83 | +1.8 |
| 2026 Total | 36 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 130 | 539 | 115 | 39 | 13 | 21.3% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 2.98 | 3.49 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 96 | 36 | 14 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 4.42 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 78 | 32 | 13 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.61 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 64 | 29 | 12 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.79 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 40 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 58 | 23 | 10 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 417 | 169 | 1251 | 5216 | 1159 | 328 | 150 | 22.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 3.68 | 3.60 | +24.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 27 | 200 | 834 | 185 | 52 | 24 | 22.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 3.68 | 3.60 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Lugo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 3.5% | — | 4.59 | 19.4% | 11.5% | 291 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.35 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .309 | 4.87 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.48 | 4.87 | 235 | 43 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2028 · 4.44 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.44 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.88 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.44 | 4.44 | 217 | 43 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.47 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 393 | 43 |
| Brad Penny R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.75 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 135 | 43 |
| Aaron Harang R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.43 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 172 | 42 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.01 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | .309 | 5.01 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.00 | 5.01 | 211 | 42 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.89 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 485 | 41 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.02 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 348 | 41 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.10 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 352 | 39 |
| Angel Castro R 2024 · 3.50 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.50 | 14.5% | 7.4% | 1.3% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 292 | 38 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.94 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 152 | 36 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.83 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 3.8% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 720 | 35 |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.56 | 19.5% | 5.4% | 2.6% | .291 | 4.31 | 22.3% | 15.4% | 359 | +0.75 | 3.56 | 577 | 35 |
| Dan Haren R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.29 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 187 | 34 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .311 | 3.92 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | -0.21 | 3.67 | 428 | 29 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 240 | 29 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2028 · 4.51 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.51 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.23 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.28 | 4.03 | 375 | 29 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.58 | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 450 | 29 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.35 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 171 | 28 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 257 | 28 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2016
Service 10.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $22M | +1.0 | $8M | -$14M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $22M | +1.1 | $9M | -$12M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $17M | +0.7 | $3M | -$14M |
| Totals | $60M | $20M | -$40M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$40M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$40M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.