Christian Roa — OGILVIE

Christian Roa P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%22.0%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

SL+0.7 (35%)

SI (32%)

CH-1.6 (8%)

FB-3.3 (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	13	59	249	67	26	6	87%	3.9	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.5%	3.53	4.94	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	13	59	249	67	26	6	87%	3.9	26.9%	10.4%	16.5%	2.4%	3.53	3.48	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	91	392	102	55	6	100%	4.5	20.2%	16.0%	4.2%	1.8%	3.56	4.42	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	91	392	102	55	6	100%	4.5	26.0%	14.0%	12.0%	1.5%	3.56	3.53	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	120	548	170	91	19	89%	4.3	25.4%	16.6%	8.9%	3.8%	5.16	5.13	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	120	548	170	91	19	89%	4.3	25.4%	16.6%	8.9%	3.8%	5.16	5.13	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	120	548	170	91	19	89%	4.3	31.0%	16.6%	14.4%	3.5%	5.16	4.60	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	23	4	49	222	47	30	9	17%	2.1	17.6%	12.2%	5.4%	4.0%	5.55	5.36	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	23	4	49	222	47	30	9	17%	2.1	17.6%	12.2%	5.4%	4.0%	5.55	5.36	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	23	4	49	222	47	30	9	17%	2.1	21.2%	13.5%	7.7%	4.1%	5.55	5.42	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	63	257	67	31	6	0%	1.2	21.7%	10.3%	11.4%	3.0%	2.70	4.21	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	63	257	67	31	6	0%	1.2	21.7%	10.3%	11.4%	3.0%	2.70	4.21	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	63	257	67	31	6	0%	1.2	26.1%	12.1%	14.0%	2.3%	2.70	3.68	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	12	55	9	10	1	0%	1.3	16.4%	18.2%	-1.8%	1.8%	3.86	5.24	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	43	0	48	219	61	33	8	0%	1.1	25.9%	13.3%	12.6%	4.4%	5.81	5.00	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	43	0	48	219	61	33	8	0%	1.1	25.9%	13.3%	12.6%	4.4%	5.81	5.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	HOU	36	0	39	176	55	26	7	0%	1.1	31.2%	14.8%	16.5%	4.0%	5.95	4.52	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	HOU	7	0	9	43	6	7	1	0%	1.2	14.0%	16.3%	-2.3%	2.3%	5.19	5.26	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	HOU	7	0	9	43	6	7	1	0%	1.2	14.0%	16.3%	-2.3%	2.3%	5.19	5.26	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	12.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	HOU	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	12.2%	9.9%	3.2%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	54	244	66	36	9	—	—	27.3%	14.8%	12.5%	3.6%	5.67	4.95	-0.2
FULL	27	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	15	61	66	36	9	—	—	108.4%	58.7%	49.7%	14.3%	21.05	9.26	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	HOU	130	0	136	575	117	70	18	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.2%	8.2%	3.2%	5.03	5.06	-0.8
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	124	0	130	549	111	66	18	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.1%	8.2%	3.3%	5.06	5.13	-0.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	116	0	122	516	103	63	18	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	3.5%	5.16	5.26	-0.9
2027	28	MLB CTX	HOU	123	0	129	545	111	66	17	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.2%	8.2%	3.2%	5.03	5.06	-0.7
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	118	0	124	524	106	63	18	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.1%	8.2%	3.3%	5.06	5.13	-0.8
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	110	0	116	490	98	59	17	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	3.5%	5.16	5.26	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		366	0	386	1637	330	202	54	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.3%	7.8%	3.3%	5.04	4.77	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	847	171	105	28	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.3%	7.8%	3.3%	5.04	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		181	62	430	1887	419	267	63	34%	2.4	22.2%	14.1%	8.1%	3.3%	4.35	4.84	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	29	200	878	195	124	29	34%	2.4	22.2%	14.1%	8.1%	3.3%	4.35	4.84	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Roa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	21.3%	12.0%	3.2%	—	5.15	20.3%	8.1%	388	+0.19	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	76
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	76
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	76
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	75
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	75
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	75
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	74
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	74
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	74
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	74
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	74
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	74
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	74
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	73
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	73
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	73
Fernery Ozuna R 2023 · 5.71 FIP	27	SU	5.71	18.4%	11.6%	4.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	157	73
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	132	20.5%	12.1%	1.28	5.05
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12