Christian Roa
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 132 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
K%23.2%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP132
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 177 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+0.7 (35%)
SI (32%)
CH-1.6 (8%)
FB-3.3 (57%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 13 | 59 | 249 | 67 | 26 | 6 | 87% | 3.9 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 3.53 | 5.02 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 13 | 59 | 249 | 67 | 26 | 6 | 87% | 3.9 | 26.9% | 10.4% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 3.53 | 3.48 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 91 | 392 | 102 | 55 | 6 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.2% | 16.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 3.56 | 4.38 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 91 | 392 | 102 | 55 | 6 | 100% | 4.5 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 1.5% | 3.56 | 3.53 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 120 | 548 | 170 | 91 | 19 | 89% | 4.3 | 26.2% | 17.8% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.16 | 5.16 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 120 | 548 | 170 | 91 | 19 | 89% | 4.3 | 31.0% | 16.6% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 4.60 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 23 | 4 | 49 | 222 | 47 | 30 | 9 | 17% | 2.1 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.55 | 5.33 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 23 | 4 | 49 | 222 | 47 | 30 | 9 | 17% | 2.1 | 21.2% | 13.5% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 5.55 | 5.42 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 63 | 257 | 67 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 2.70 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 63 | 257 | 67 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.1% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 2.70 | 3.68 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 44 | 0 | 45 | 225 | 59 | 30 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 7.5% | 8.74 | 6.57 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 125 | 0 | 132 | 556 | 129 | 74 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 126 | 0 | 132 | 557 | 129 | 75 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +1.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 177 | 781 | 188 | 104 | 34 | — | — | 24.1% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 5.79 | 5.23 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 140 | 592 | 188 | 104 | 34 | — | — | 31.7% | 17.6% | 14.1% | 5.7% | 7.30 | 5.77 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 130 | 0 | 136 | 575 | 122 | 76 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 5.11 | 5.14 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 124 | 0 | 130 | 549 | 116 | 72 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.14 | 5.21 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 123 | 0 | 129 | 545 | 116 | 72 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 5.11 | 5.14 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 118 | 0 | 124 | 524 | 111 | 69 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.14 | 5.21 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 375 | 0 | 396 | 1678 | 364 | 225 | 56 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.97 | 4.79 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 184 | 114 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.97 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 182 | 62 | 427 | 1893 | 433 | 283 | 70 | 34% | 2.3 | 22.9% | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 4.65 | 5.08 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 29 | 200 | 886 | 203 | 133 | 33 | 34% | 2.3 | 22.9% | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 4.65 | 5.08 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Roa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.2% | — | 5.17 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 266 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 78 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.56 | 21.0% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 252 | 77 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 77 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 76 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 75 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 75 |
| Logan Taylor R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 75 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 74 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.03 | 115 | 74 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.77 | 19.5% | 13.5% | 4.7% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 157 | 74 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 74 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 73 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 73 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 73 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 73 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 73 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 15.9% | 3.1% | .229 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 189 | 73 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.12 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 4.0% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 414 | 73 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 73 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.28 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 1.3% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 123 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 135 | 21.6% | 13.3% | 1.27 | 5.10 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |