Christian Roa

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAACIN	23	4	49	5.55	5.42	21.2%	13.5%	—	K 18.2% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.31
2025	26	MIX2 levels	52	0	63	2.70	3.68	26.1%	12.1%	0.7	K 22.5% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.14
2026	27	MIX2 levels	45	0	50	5.58	4.60	28.3%	14.6%	-0.0	K 27.3% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.73
2027PROJ	28	MLBHOU	91	0	96	4.73	4.73	24.4%	11.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ77% MLB	29	MLBHOU	81	0	85	4.76	4.81	23.9%	11.6%	-0.3
2029PROJ83% MLB	30	MLBHOU	74	0	78	4.85	4.94	23.4%	11.6%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJason Bulger (age 29) · Josh Lueke (age 28) · Nelson Gonzalez (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%24.4%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP140

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	13	59	249	67	26	6	87%	3.9	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.5%	3.53	4.94	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	13	59	249	67	26	6	87%	3.9	26.9%	10.4%	16.5%	2.4%	3.53	3.48	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	91	392	102	55	6	100%	4.5	20.2%	16.0%	4.2%	1.8%	3.56	4.42	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	91	392	102	55	6	100%	4.5	26.0%	14.0%	12.0%	1.5%	3.56	3.53	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	120	548	170	91	19	89%	4.3	25.9%	16.6%	9.3%	3.8%	5.16	5.09	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	120	548	170	91	19	89%	4.3	31.0%	16.6%	14.4%	3.5%	5.16	4.60	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	23	4	49	222	47	30	9	17%	2.1	18.2%	12.2%	6.0%	4.0%	5.55	5.31	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	23	4	49	222	47	30	9	17%	2.1	18.2%	12.2%	6.0%	4.0%	5.55	5.31	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	23	4	49	222	47	30	9	17%	2.1	21.2%	13.5%	7.7%	4.1%	5.55	5.42	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	63	257	67	31	6	0%	1.2	22.5%	10.3%	12.2%	3.0%	2.70	4.14	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	63	257	67	31	6	0%	1.2	22.5%	10.3%	12.2%	3.0%	2.70	4.14	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	63	257	67	31	6	0%	1.2	26.1%	12.1%	14.0%	2.3%	2.70	3.68	+0.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	50	226	64	33	8	0%	1.1	27.3%	12.8%	14.5%	4.2%	5.58	4.73	-0.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	50	226	64	33	8	0%	1.1	27.3%	12.8%	14.5%	4.2%	5.58	4.73	-0.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	50	226	64	33	8	0%	1.1	28.3%	14.6%	13.7%	3.5%	5.58	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	12	55	9	10	1	0%	1.3	16.4%	18.2%	-1.8%	1.8%	3.86	5.24	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	HOU	91	0	96	405	99	48	13	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.8%	12.6%	3.3%	4.73	4.73	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	105	0	111	467	112	54	16	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.6%	12.3%	3.4%	4.76	4.81	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	89	0	94	396	93	46	14	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	3.6%	4.85	4.94	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	81	0	85	359	86	42	12	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.6%	12.3%	3.4%	4.76	4.81	-0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	74	0	78	329	77	38	12	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	3.6%	4.85	4.94	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	0	174	742	172	90	25	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.1%	11.1%	3.4%	4.74	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	851	197	103	29	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.1%	11.1%	3.4%	4.74	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		183	62	432	1894	430	267	63	34%	2.4	22.7%	14.1%	8.6%	3.3%	4.33	4.79	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	29	200	877	199	124	29	34%	2.4	22.7%	14.1%	8.6%	3.3%	4.33	4.79	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 41 IPFIP 4.32 → 4.73 (+0.40)K% 31.7% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.69%	—	×0.860	27.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.21%	—	×0.900	12.79%
HR / BF /BF	3.83%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.21%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.32 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 60 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.14 (+0.46)K% 26.1% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.12%	—	×0.860	22.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×0.900	10.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷0.903	×1.100	2.98%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 49 IPFIP 5.25 → 5.31 (+0.06)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.17%	—	×0.860	18.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×0.900	12.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷1.111	×1.100	4.02%

Result: FIP 5.25 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 61 IPFIP 5.01 → 5.24 (+0.23)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.62%	—	×0.860	24.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.21%	—	×0.900	14.59%
HR / BF /BF	4.14%	÷1.054	×1.100	4.32%

Result: FIP 5.01 → 5.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 59 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.93 (+1.03)K% 33.7% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.72%	—	×0.810	27.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.05%	—	×1.100	18.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.71%	÷1.017	×1.200	3.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 74 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.56 (+0.91)K% 25.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.08%	—	×0.770	19.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.50%	—	×1.150	16.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷1.058	×1.250	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 17 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.66 (+0.84)K% 31.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.15%	—	×0.810	25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.48%	—	×1.100	12.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷0.990	×1.200	1.99%

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Dayton Dragons · 35 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.90 (+1.13)K% 25.2% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.17%	—	×0.770	19.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×1.150	11.73%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷0.960	×1.250	3.54%

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Roa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	24.4%	11.8%	3.3%	—	4.87	23.7%	12.1%	204	+0.14	—	—	—
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	72
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	70
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	70
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	70
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	70
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	70
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	69
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	69
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	69
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	68
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	68
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	68
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	68
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	68
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	68
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	68
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	67
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	67
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	67
Cody Poteet R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	28	SW	4.79	18.4%	9.6%	3.7%	.244	3.73	21.1%	13.3%	68	-1.06	3.52	619	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	119	23.7%	11.9%	1.30	4.74
Joe Cowley ('82-'87, 3 WAR*)	2.3	117	22.7%*	11.2%*	1.55*	4.37*
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.4	94	21.9%	9.7%	1.25	4.45