Christian Roa — OGILVIE

Christian Roa P Houston Astros

+0.1 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

xFIP7.29

SIERA5.94

K%22.7%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%10.5%

IP63

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.1peak

2026

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

SL+0.7 (35%)

SI (32%)

CH-1.6 (8%)

FB-3.3 (57%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	15	13	59	249	67	26	6	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	3.53	4.94	+0.0
2022	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	20	20	91	392	102	55	6	20.2%	16.0%	1.8%	3.56	4.42	+0.8
2023	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	28	25	120	548	170	91	19	26.2%	17.8%	3.8%	5.16	5.25	+0.1
2024	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	23	4	49	222	47	30	9	18.6%	14.2%	4.0%	5.55	5.49	-0.3
2025	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	52	0	63	257	67	31	6	23.0%	12.0%	3.0%	2.70	4.35	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Houston Astros	8	0	10	47	6	8	1	—	—	—	4.66	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	HOU	54	—	54	229	52	28	7	22.7%	12.4%	3.2%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
2026 Total	27	MLB	HOU	—	—	64	276	58	36	8	21.0%	13.2%	3.0%	4.85	4.15	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	HOU	11	11	62	261	56	33	8	21.3%	12.5%	3.1%	4.98	4.99	-0.0
2028	29	MLB	HOU	11	11	60	255	55	32	8	21.4%	12.4%	3.2%	4.96	4.99	-0.0
2029	30	MLB	HOU	59	—	59	248	53	30	8	21.3%	12.3%	3.2%	4.98	5.02	-0.0
2030	31	MLB	HOU	57	—	57	239	50	30	8	21.1%	12.3%	3.3%	5.03	5.07	-0.1
2031	32	MLB	HOU	54	—	54	229	48	29	8	20.8%	12.5%	3.4%	5.11	5.16	-0.1
2032	33	MLB	HOU	52	—	52	219	45	28	8	20.5%	12.7%	3.5%	5.20	5.26	-0.2
2033	34	MLB	HOU	49	—	49	208	42	27	7	20.2%	12.9%	3.6%	5.30	5.37	-0.2
2034	35	MLB	HOU	46	—	46	196	39	26	7	19.8%	13.1%	3.7%	5.41	5.49	-0.3
2035	36	MLB	HOU	44	—	44	184	36	25	7	19.3%	13.4%	3.8%	5.54	5.62	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			146	62	392	1715	378	262	54	22.0%	15.3%	3.2%	4.18	4.91	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—			75	32	200	876	193	134	28	22.0%	15.3%	3.2%	4.18	4.91	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Roa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	22.7%	12.4%	3.2%	—	5.00	21.3%	8.9%	181	+0.11	—	—	—
David Holman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP	27	SU	5.48	15.6%	12.7%	3.8%	.324	5.48	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.00	5.37	129	82
Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	27	SU	4.34	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.29	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.05	4.00	138	81
Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	17.6%	11.2%	2.8%	.309	5.45	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.87	3.47	160	80
Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	113	80
Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.297	3.85	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.93	3.85	102	79
Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	79
Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	17.9%	12.5%	3.1%	.450	3.38	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.47	3.01	115	79
Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.87	18.2%	10.2%	272	-0.98	3.45	315	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	79
Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.46	15.2%	3.1%	156	+1.00	4.46	215	79
Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	27	SW	4.26	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.69	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.57	2.69	125	78
Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	27	SU	5.16	21.1%	13.8%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	153	78
Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	27	SU	4.97	17.9%	11.9%	3.4%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.54	3.06	221	78
Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	27	SU	4.97	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.77	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.80	3.40	258	77
Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.14 FIP	27	SW	5.14	15.1%	13.8%	2.9%	.335	4.48	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.66	4.42	214	77
Javy Guerra R 2029 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.87	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.43	3.01	260	77
Adrian Garza R 2026 · 5.48 FIP	27	SU	5.48	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.31	3.95	229	77
Ryan Conroy R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	25	SW	4.76	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	106	76
Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.09 FIP	27	SW	5.09	20.3%	12.3%	3.9%	.191	4.26	21.6%	12.6%	131	-0.83	2.39	676	76
Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.08	3.70	187	76

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.