Kyle Wright

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MLBATL	30	30	180	3.19	3.42	23.6%	7.2%	4.4
2023	27	MIX3 levels	13	11	45	6.35	3.98	24.4%	10.3%	0.8	K 21.9% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.41
2025	29	MIX2 levels	8	8	23	5.48	4.80	19.6%	13.1%	—	K 19.7% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.09
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBKC	5	5	31	4.41	4.39	23.6%	9.6%	0.4
2028PROJ47% MLB	32	MLBKC	10	10	59	4.55	4.64	22.8%	10.0%	0.5
2029PROJ65% MLB	33	MLBKC	11	11	67	4.77	4.92	22.0%	10.5%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%48

FB Velo32

xwOBA vs17

CompsMatt Buschmann (age 31) · Jose Samayoa (age 29) · Kenshin Kawakami (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.41

FIP4.39

K%23.6%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%14.0%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p4821.9%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	17	68	18	6	0	100%	1.9	26.5%	8.8%	17.6%	0.0%	2.65	1.98	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	17	68	18	6	0	100%	1.9	26.5%	8.8%	17.6%	0.0%	2.65	2.04	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	24	144	604	138	57	10	77%	4.6	19.0%	9.7%	9.4%	1.8%	3.50	3.70	+3.0
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	24	144	604	138	57	10	77%	4.6	22.8%	9.4%	13.4%	1.7%	3.50	3.27	+3.8
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	132	569	134	47	17	89%	4.7	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	3.5%	4.84	4.32	+1.7
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	132	569	134	47	17	89%	4.7	23.6%	8.3%	15.3%	3.0%	4.84	3.81	+2.5
2020	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	8	8	38	168	30	23	7	100%	4.8	17.9%	13.7%	4.2%	4.2%	5.21	5.61	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	8	8	38	168	30	23	7	100%	4.8	17.9%	13.7%	4.2%	4.2%	5.21	5.73	-0.1
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	143	601	143	50	11	100%	5.5	21.3%	8.3%	13.0%	1.7%	3.33	3.32	+3.7
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	143	601	143	50	11	100%	5.5	23.8%	8.3%	15.5%	1.8%	3.33	3.15	+4.0
2022	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	30	30	180	738	174	53	19	100%	6.0	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	2.6%	3.19	3.43	+4.4
2022	26	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	30	30	180	738	174	53	19	100%	6.0	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	2.6%	3.19	3.42	+4.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	11	45	213	52	22	6	85%	3.5	21.9%	11.0%	11.0%	3.2%	6.35	4.41	+0.5
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	11	45	213	52	22	6	85%	3.5	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	2.8%	6.35	3.98	+0.8
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	23	107	21	14	3	100%	2.9	19.7%	13.3%	6.5%	3.6%	5.48	5.09	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	23	107	21	14	3	100%	2.9	19.7%	13.3%	6.5%	3.6%	5.48	5.09	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	23	107	21	14	3	100%	2.9	19.6%	13.1%	6.5%	2.8%	5.48	4.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			60	51	281	1217	267	116	39	85%	4.7	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.24	+3.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	KC	5	5	31	131	31	13	4	100%	6.2	23.6%	9.6%	14.0%	3.1%	4.41	4.39	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	124	522	119	52	17	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	3.3%	4.55	4.64	+1.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	103	435	96	46	16	100%	6.1	22.0%	10.5%	11.5%	3.6%	4.77	4.92	+0.6
2030	34	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	86	362	76	40	14	100%	6.1	21.1%	11.0%	10.1%	3.9%	5.04	5.23	+0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	59	249	57	25	8	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	3.3%	4.55	4.64	+0.5
2029	33	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	67	283	62	30	10	100%	6.1	22.0%	10.5%	11.5%	3.6%	4.77	4.92	+0.4
2030	34	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	52	220	46	24	9	100%	5.8	21.1%	11.0%	10.1%	3.9%	5.04	5.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	80	458	1963	431	194	66	90%	5.1	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.4%	4.57	4.34	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	857	188	85	29	90%	5.1	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.4%	4.57	4.34	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		153	141	723	3068	653	277	78	92%	4.7	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	2.5%	3.95	3.84	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	39	200	849	181	77	22	92%	4.7	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	2.5%	3.95	3.84	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 13 IPFIP 4.83 → 5.09 (+0.26)K% 23.0% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.95%	—	×0.860	19.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.75%	—	×0.900	13.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷1.003	×1.100	3.60%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 4.83 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 10 IPFIP 4.39 → 4.90 (+0.52)K% 15.2% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.22%	—	×0.810	12.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.100	11.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.077	×1.200	2.42%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 4.39 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 11 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.45 (+0.35)K% 29.2% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.860	25.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×0.900	9.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.33%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 137 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.32 (+0.38)K% 24.2% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.20%	—	×0.880	21.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×1.050	8.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷1.001	×1.100	1.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 112 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.10 (+0.63)K% 24.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.37%	—	×0.880	21.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.35%	—	×1.050	7.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷0.899	×1.100	3.34%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMississippi Braves · 109 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.79 (+0.72)K% 22.5% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.53%	—	×0.810	18.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.23%	—	×1.100	10.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷0.897	×1.200	1.72%

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 29 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.31 (+0.44)K% 25.5% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.45%	—	×0.880	22.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.050	7.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.970	×1.100	2.06%

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 11 IPFIP 2.37 → 2.95 (+0.59)K% 21.7% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.770	16.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.150	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.929	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Wright (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.89	22.1%	11.6%	312	+0.50	—	—	—
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	73
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	73
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	73
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	72
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	69
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	69
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	68
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	67
Nestor Molina R 2019 · 4.27 FIP	30	SP	4.27	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	401	66
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	66
Manuel Flores R 2017 · 3.46 FIP	31	SP	3.46	15.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.305	4.32	17.1%	9.7%	122	+0.86	3.46	515	66
Junior Guerra R 2016 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP	3.57	20.4%	8.8%	2.0%	.244	4.41	21.4%	11.0%	325	+0.84	3.18	646	64
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	63
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	62
Hiroki Kuroda R 2008 · 3.31 FIP	33	SP	3.31	14.9%	4.4%	1.7%	.274	3.36	19.1%	14.4%	516	+0.05	2.96	1,319	62
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	61
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	59
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	59
Manny Barreda R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	30	SP	5.21	18.1%	9.5%	4.4%	.317	3.34	20.1%	12.9%	40	-1.87	3.30	376	59
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	107	22.3%	10.0%	1.29	4.57
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Joe Cowley ('82-'87, 3 WAR*)	2.3	117	22.7%*	11.2%*	1.55*	4.37*
Dave Stenhouse ('62-'64, 2 WAR*)	1.9	124	17.9%*	10.5%*	1.33*	4.51*