Chih-Jung Liu
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.0%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%13.7%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 13 | 13 | 55 | 231 | 60 | 19 | 6 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 26 | 22 | 104 | 462 | 108 | 49 | 28 | 18.3% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 6.06 | 7.22 | -2.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 26 | 24 | 114 | 510 | 145 | 61 | 19 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 4.3% | 5.35 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 7 | 4 | 21 | 86 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 31.7% | 13.4% | 6.4% | 3.43 | 5.63 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 23.9% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 63 | 295 | 1289 | 272 | 158 | 69 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 5.25 | 5.81 | -1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 43 | 200 | 875 | 185 | 107 | 47 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 5.25 | 5.81 | -1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chih-Jung Liu (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.59 | 23.7% | 13.4% | 103 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.09 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .277 | 5.99 | 11.9% | -5.1% | 16 | +1.90 | 3.86 | 134 | 83 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 83 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 83 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 83 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 83 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .301 | 3.61 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.19 | 2.59 | 156 | 82 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 82 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 82 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 81 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 81 |
| Cristofer Ogando R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.81 | 26.8% | 10.9% | 4.7% | .281 | 4.92 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 53 | +0.11 | 3.23 | 179 | 81 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 81 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 81 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 81 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .417 | 2.29 | 18.7% | 12.7% | 59 | -2.01 | 1.94 | 131 | 81 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 81 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 80 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 80 |
| David Hernandez R 2029 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.