Chih-Jung Liu
P
Portland Sea Dogs
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
K%24.0%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 55 | 231 | 60 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 4.3 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.23 | 4.72 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 55 | 231 | 60 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 4.3 | 26.0% | 8.2% | 17.7% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 3.37 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 104 | 462 | 108 | 49 | 28 | 85% | 4.0 | 18.3% | 11.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.06 | 7.24 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 104 | 462 | 108 | 49 | 28 | 85% | 4.0 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 6.1% | 6.06 | 5.94 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 26 | 24 | 114 | 510 | 145 | 61 | 19 | 92% | 4.4 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 5.35 | 5.06 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 26 | 24 | 114 | 510 | 145 | 61 | 19 | 92% | 4.4 | 28.4% | 12.0% | 16.5% | 3.7% | 5.35 | 4.32 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 4 | 21 | 86 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 57% | 3.0 | 31.7% | 13.4% | 18.4% | 6.3% | 3.43 | 5.55 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 4 | 21 | 86 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 57% | 3.0 | 39.5% | 10.5% | 29.1% | 4.7% | 3.43 | 3.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 4 | 4 | 24 | 102 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.22 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 88 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 63 | 295 | 1289 | 272 | 158 | 69 | 88% | 4.1 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 5.25 | 5.81 | -1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 43 | 200 | 875 | 185 | 107 | 47 | 88% | 4.1 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 5.25 | 5.81 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chih-Jung Liu (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.60 | 23.8% | 13.5% | 24 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 79 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 76 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 74 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.95 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 287 | 74 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 74 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 73 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 73 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 72 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.40 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 4.5% | .325 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 107 | -1.00 | 4.00 | 464 | 71 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 71 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 70 |
| Mason Adams R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 254 | 70 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 69 |
| Tony Gonsolin R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.55 | 27.2% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .250 | 4.09 | 21.7% | 13.9% | 233 | -0.46 | 2.06 | 688 | 69 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.95 | 27.5% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 302 | 69 |
| Austin Peterson R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.27 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 479 | 69 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 69 |
| Jackson Finley R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.85 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 132 | 68 |
| Cody Anderson R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 68 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 68 |