Chih-Jung Liu — OGILVIE

Chih-Jung Liu P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%25.0%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	55	231	60	19	6	100%	4.3	18.8%	10.5%	8.2%	2.8%	4.23	4.41	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	55	231	60	19	6	100%	4.3	26.0%	8.2%	17.7%	2.6%	4.23	3.37	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	104	462	108	49	28	85%	4.0	18.3%	11.8%	6.4%	7.6%	6.06	7.22	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	104	462	108	49	28	85%	4.0	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	6.1%	6.06	5.94	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	26	24	114	510	145	61	19	92%	4.4	23.0%	13.2%	9.9%	4.3%	5.35	5.16	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	26	24	114	510	145	61	19	92%	4.4	23.0%	13.2%	9.9%	4.3%	5.35	5.16	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	26	24	114	510	145	61	19	92%	4.4	28.4%	12.0%	16.5%	3.7%	5.35	4.32	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	21	86	34	9	4	57%	3.0	31.7%	13.4%	18.4%	6.4%	3.43	5.61	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	21	86	34	9	4	57%	3.0	31.7%	13.4%	18.4%	6.4%	3.43	5.61	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	21	86	34	9	4	57%	3.0	39.5%	10.5%	29.1%	4.7%	3.43	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	BOS	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	25.0%	12.1%	12.9%	3.3%	4.69	4.69	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	4	4	24	102	25	12	3	100%	6.0	24.7%	11.9%	12.7%	3.3%	4.71	4.74	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	2	2	9	38	9	5	1	100%	4.5	24.7%	11.9%	12.7%	3.3%	4.71	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	9	38	9	5	1	100%	4.5	24.7%	11.9%	12.7%	3.3%	4.71	4.36	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	198	110	22	100%	6.0	24.7%	11.9%	12.7%	3.3%	4.71	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		72	63	295	1289	272	158	69	88%	4.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	5.3%	5.25	5.79	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	875	185	107	47	88%	4.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	5.3%	5.25	5.79	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chih-Jung Liu (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	25.0%	12.1%	3.3%	—	4.74	24.7%	12.7%	24	+0.05	—	—	—
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	75
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	75
Tony Gonsolin R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	27.2%	14.2%	3.2%	.250	3.92	21.7%	13.9%	233	-0.45	2.00	688	70
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	70
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	70
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	68
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	67
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	66
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	66
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	159	65
Rubby De La Rosa R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP-	4.09	24.3%	8.6%	3.6%	.248	4.13	27.6%	18.3%	42	+0.04	4.04	281	65
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	64
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	63
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	63
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	62
Alex Meyer R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	27	SP	3.99	25.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	230	62
Cody Poteet R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	27	SP	5.65	24.2%	12.1%	5.6%	.234	4.07	19.9%	11.6%	96	-1.58	3.52	619	62
Tyler Cloyd R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	17.6%	12.4%	1.3%	.211	4.86	16.9%	9.7%	230	+0.97	3.89	250	62
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	62
Michael Gibbons R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	26	SP	5.65	19.8%	11.4%	5.1%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	195	62