Ryan Jensen
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.5%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%8.9%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 20 | 20 | 80 | 326 | 90 | 31 | 10 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 4.16 | 4.81 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 17 | 17 | 59 | 259 | 60 | 39 | 5 | 18.8% | 16.6% | 2.3% | 4.25 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 43 | 6 | 64 | 311 | 78 | 54 | 6 | 21.2% | 18.6% | 2.0% | 5.32 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 44 | 3 | 57 | 262 | 81 | 50 | 4 | 27.2% | 20.0% | 1.6% | 4.76 | 4.22 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 21 | 1 | 29 | 138 | 39 | 26 | 4 | 24.9% | 19.8% | 2.2% | 6.59 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 4 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 35 | 23 | 4 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 39 | 167 | 40 | 27 | 4 | 24.2% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 4.70 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 34 | 21 | 4 | 24.3% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 4.78 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 33 | 20 | 4 | 24.0% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 31 | 19 | 4 | 23.8% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 23.5% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 23.2% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 149 | 47 | 294 | 1319 | 295 | 220 | 32 | 22.4% | 16.7% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.67 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 32 | 200 | 898 | 201 | 150 | 22 | 22.4% | 16.7% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.67 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Jensen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.84 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 97 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 84 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 81 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 81 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 81 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 80 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.02 | 23.1% | 16.2% | 1.5% | .325 | 4.21 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 103 | +0.19 | 4.02 | 328 | 80 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.51 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 315 | 80 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 80 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 79 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.71 | 23.6% | 15.6% | 1.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 160 | 79 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 78 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.09 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.54 | 2.28 | 186 | 78 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.02 | 24.7% | 17.3% | 1.5% | .189 | 4.24 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 54 | +0.22 | 3.65 | 197 | 77 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 107 | 77 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 77 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 77 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 76 |
| Jordan Jankowski R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 24.1% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .319 | 4.77 | 21.8% | 4.9% | 19 | +0.77 | 2.57 | 196 | 76 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.10 | 25.3% | 16.2% | 3.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 142 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.