Ryan Jensen
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%24.6%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%8.9%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 80 | 326 | 90 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 4.0 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 4.3% | 4.16 | 5.00 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 80 | 326 | 90 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 4.0 | 27.6% | 9.5% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 3.64 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 17 | 17 | 59 | 259 | 60 | 39 | 5 | 100% | 3.5 | 18.8% | 16.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.25 | 4.86 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 17 | 17 | 59 | 259 | 60 | 39 | 5 | 100% | 3.5 | 23.2% | 15.1% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 4.14 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 6 | 64 | 311 | 78 | 54 | 6 | 14% | 1.5 | 21.2% | 18.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 5.32 | 4.69 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 6 | 64 | 311 | 78 | 54 | 6 | 14% | 1.5 | 25.1% | 17.4% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 5.32 | 4.41 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 44 | 3 | 57 | 262 | 81 | 50 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 27.2% | 20.0% | 7.2% | 1.6% | 4.76 | 4.20 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 44 | 3 | 57 | 262 | 81 | 50 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 30.9% | 19.1% | 11.8% | 1.5% | 4.76 | 3.81 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 21 | 1 | 29 | 138 | 39 | 26 | 4 | 5% | 1.4 | 24.9% | 19.8% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 6.59 | 4.67 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 21 | 1 | 29 | 138 | 39 | 26 | 4 | 5% | 1.4 | 28.3% | 18.8% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 6.59 | 4.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 20 | 0 | 24 | 118 | 24 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.2% | 18.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 4.07 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 25 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 48 | 219 | 49 | 35 | 4 | — | — | 22.3% | 15.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | 4.43 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 24.6% | 15.7% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.79 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 15.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 15.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 15.3% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.47 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 130 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 15.3% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 165 | 47 | 313 | 1414 | 313 | 237 | 34 | 28% | 1.9 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 4.74 | 4.67 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 30 | 200 | 903 | 200 | 151 | 22 | 28% | 1.9 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 4.74 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Jensen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.87 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 23 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 77 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 272 | 77 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 76 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.60 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.16 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.44 | 2.16 | 186 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 74 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 74 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.02 | 23.1% | 16.2% | 1.5% | .325 | 4.10 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 103 | +0.08 | 4.02 | 328 | 73 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 73 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 315 | 73 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 72 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.66 | 23.1% | 15.5% | 2.8% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 197 | 72 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 72 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 72 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 72 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 71 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 71 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 71 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 71 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 107 | 71 |
| Dan Hammer R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.08 | 22.4% | 15.5% | 1.7% | .229 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 238 | 71 |