Ryan Jensen — OGILVIE

Ryan Jensen P Iowa Cubs

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%23.9%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	80	326	90	31	10	100%	4.0	21.4%	10.8%	10.6%	4.0%	4.16	4.86	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	80	326	90	31	10	100%	4.0	27.6%	9.5%	18.1%	3.1%	4.16	3.64	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	17	17	59	259	60	39	5	100%	3.5	18.8%	16.6%	2.2%	2.3%	4.25	4.87	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	17	17	59	259	60	39	5	100%	3.5	23.2%	15.1%	8.1%	1.9%	4.25	4.14	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	6	64	311	78	54	6	14%	1.5	20.6%	17.0%	3.5%	2.0%	5.32	4.64	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	6	64	311	78	54	6	14%	1.5	20.6%	17.0%	3.5%	2.0%	5.32	4.64	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	6	64	311	78	54	6	14%	1.5	25.1%	17.4%	7.7%	1.9%	5.32	4.41	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	44	3	57	262	81	50	4	7%	1.3	25.7%	17.2%	8.5%	1.6%	4.76	4.00	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	44	3	57	262	81	50	4	7%	1.3	25.7%	17.2%	8.5%	1.6%	4.76	4.00	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	44	3	57	262	81	50	4	7%	1.3	30.9%	19.1%	11.8%	1.5%	4.76	3.81	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	21	1	29	138	39	26	4	5%	1.4	23.5%	17.0%	6.5%	2.5%	6.59	4.66	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	21	1	29	138	39	26	4	5%	1.4	23.5%	17.0%	6.5%	2.5%	6.59	4.66	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	21	1	29	138	39	26	4	5%	1.4	28.3%	18.8%	9.4%	2.9%	6.59	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	20	0	24	118	24	19	1	0%	1.2	18.1%	15.5%	2.6%	1.0%	4.07	4.09	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	20	0	24	118	24	19	1	0%	1.2	18.1%	15.5%	2.6%	1.0%	4.07	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	ROK RAW	CHC	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	0%	0.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	28	AA RAW	CHC	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	CHC	17	0	22	110	24	19	1	0%	1.3	21.8%	17.3%	4.5%	0.9%	4.57	3.94	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CHC	22	0	23	96	23	15	3	0%	1.0	23.6%	15.6%	8.0%	2.8%	4.96	5.01	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	CHC	8	0	8	34	8	5	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	15.6%	8.0%	2.8%	4.96	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	8	6	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	15.6%	8.0%	2.8%	4.96	4.63	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	143	24	0%	1.1	23.6%	15.6%	8.0%	2.8%	4.96	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		165	47	313	1414	303	218	34	28%	1.9	21.5%	15.4%	6.0%	2.4%	4.74	4.57	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	30	200	903	194	139	22	28%	1.9	21.5%	15.4%	6.0%	2.4%	4.74	4.57	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Jensen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	23.9%	16.0%	2.6%	—	5.01	23.6%	8.0%	23	+0.07	—	—	—
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	80
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	77
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	77
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	76
José A. Váldez R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	28	SU	4.02	23.1%	16.2%	1.5%	.325	4.21	16.8%	6.2%	103	+0.19	4.02	328	73
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	73
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	73
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	73
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	73
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	72
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	72
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	72
Stevie Branche R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	25.6%	19.1%	1.2%	.274	5.73	18.6%	1.0%	28	+1.69	3.23	162	72
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	72
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	72
Travis Hissong R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	26	SU	4.17	20.3%	13.5%	2.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	122	71
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	71
Caleb Simpson R 2019 · 4.02 FIP	27	SU	4.02	24.7%	17.3%	1.5%	.189	4.23	22.4%	9.7%	54	+0.21	3.57	197	71
Dario Beltre R 2019 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	21.4%	17.0%	1.4%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	110	71
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	71