Ryan Jensen
P Iowa Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAAMIN | 44 | 3 | 57 | 4.76 | 3.81 | 30.9% | 19.1% | — | K 26.6% · BB 17.2% · FIP 3.92 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAAMIN | 21 | 1 | 29 | 6.59 | 4.91 | 28.3% | 18.8% | — | K 24.3% · BB 17.0% · FIP 4.59 |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX3 levels | 20 | 0 | 24 | 4.07 | 4.00 | 20.3% | 16.1% | — | K 18.8% · BB 15.5% · FIP 4.03 |
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBCHC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4.92 | 4.92 | 22.2% | 15.0% | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ37% MLB | 30 | MLBCHC | 6 | 0 | 6 | 4.97 | 5.04 | 22.0% | 14.8% | -0.0 |
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 80 | 326 | 90 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 4.0 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 4.16 | 4.86 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 80 | 326 | 90 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 4.0 | 27.6% | 9.5% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 3.64 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | 17 | 17 | 59 | 259 | 60 | 39 | 5 | 100% | 3.5 | 18.8% | 16.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.25 | 4.87 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | 17 | 17 | 59 | 259 | 60 | 39 | 5 | 100% | 3.5 | 23.2% | 15.1% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 4.14 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 43 | 6 | 64 | 311 | 78 | 54 | 6 | 14% | 1.5 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 5.32 | 4.61 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 43 | 6 | 64 | 311 | 78 | 54 | 6 | 14% | 1.5 | 25.1% | 17.4% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 5.32 | 4.41 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | 44 | 3 | 57 | 262 | 81 | 50 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 26.6% | 17.2% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 4.76 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | 44 | 3 | 57 | 262 | 81 | 50 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 26.6% | 17.2% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 4.76 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | St. Paul Saints | 44 | 3 | 57 | 262 | 81 | 50 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 30.9% | 19.1% | 11.8% | 1.5% | 4.76 | 3.81 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | 21 | 1 | 29 | 138 | 39 | 26 | 4 | 5% | 1.4 | 24.3% | 17.0% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 6.59 | 4.59 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | 21 | 1 | 29 | 138 | 39 | 26 | 4 | 5% | 1.4 | 24.3% | 17.0% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 6.59 | 4.59 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | St. Paul Saints | 21 | 1 | 29 | 138 | 39 | 26 | 4 | 5% | 1.4 | 28.3% | 18.8% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 6.59 | 4.91 | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 20 | 0 | 24 | 118 | 24 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 4.07 | 4.03 | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 20 | 0 | 24 | 118 | 24 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 4.07 | 4.03 | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 20 | 0 | 24 | 118 | 24 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 16.1% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 4.07 | 4.00 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 15.0% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | CHC | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | CHC | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.66 | -0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 136 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.66 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 165 | 47 | 313 | 1414 | 309 | 218 | 34 | 28% | 1.9 | 21.8% | 15.4% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 4.74 | 4.54 | -0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 105 | 30 | 200 | 903 | 197 | 139 | 22 | 28% | 1.9 | 21.8% | 15.4% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 4.74 | 4.54 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 22 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.03 (+0.09)K% 21.8% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 21.82% | — | ×0.860 | 18.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 17.27% | — | ×0.900 | 15.55% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.100 | 1.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 29 IPFIP 4.69 → 4.59 (−0.10)K% 28.3% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 28.26% | — | ×0.860 | 24.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 18.84% | — | ×0.900 | 16.96% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.90% | ÷1.253 | ×1.100 | 2.55% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).
Result: FIP 4.69 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 57 IPFIP 3.74 → 3.92 (+0.17)K% 30.9% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 30.92% | — | ×0.860 | 26.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 19.08% | — | ×0.900 | 17.18% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.53% | ÷1.039 | ×1.100 | 1.62% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).
Result: FIP 3.74 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 32 IPFIP 4.32 → 4.31 (−0.01)K% 23.9% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.90% | — | ×0.860 | 20.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 20.13% | — | ×0.900 | 18.11% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.26% | ÷1.157 | ×1.100 | 1.20% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 131).
Result: FIP 4.32 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AATennessee Smokies · 32 IPFIP 4.16 → 4.92 (+0.76)K% 26.3% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 26.32% | — | ×0.810 | 21.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 14.47% | — | ×1.100 | 15.92% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.63% | ÷1.082 | ×1.200 | 2.92% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).
Result: FIP 4.16 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AATennessee Smokies · 59 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.87 (+0.76)K% 23.2% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.17% | — | ×0.810 | 18.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 15.06% | — | ×1.100 | 16.56% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.93% | ÷1.010 | ×1.200 | 2.29% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).
Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+South Bend Cubs · 62 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.87 (+1.34)K% 29.3% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 29.30% | — | ×0.770 | 22.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 9.38% | — | ×1.150 | 10.78% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.12% | ÷0.928 | ×1.250 | 4.21% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).
Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AATennessee Smokies · 18 IPFIP 4.13 → 4.82 (+0.70)K% 21.4% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 21.43% | — | ×0.810 | 17.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 10.00% | — | ×1.100 | 11.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.86% | ÷1.050 | ×1.200 | 3.27% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).
Result: FIP 4.13 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).