Troy Melton
P
Detroit Tigers
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.5 · 2028
ERA3.72
FIP4.35
xFIP4.53
SIERA4.30
K%23.6%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%15.7%
IP112
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2028
K†6060
FB Velo
p8797.1
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p650.297
SL+4.5 (24%)
FB+3.8 (52%)
SI (12%)
CU (5%)
CT-4.0 (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 23 | 22 | 92 | 377 | 94 | 24 | 5 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 1.6% | 2.74 | 3.33 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 23 | 23 | 101 | 430 | 119 | 30 | 19 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.10 | 5.34 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 34 | 20 | 121 | 492 | 137 | 35 | 13 | 24.7% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 2.90 | 3.50 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | DET | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 36 | 11 | 5 | 25.1% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 3.70 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 126 | 40 | 17 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 4.23 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 128 | 41 | 17 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.15 | 4.24 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 127 | 41 | 18 | 24.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.22 | 4.27 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 121 | 40 | 17 | 24.1% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.29 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 115 | 40 | 17 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 108 | 39 | 17 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 101 | 38 | 16 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 94 | 37 | 16 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 86 | 36 | 16 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.92 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 78 | 35 | 15 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.07 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 70 | 34 | 15 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 5.13 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 82 | 67 | 319 | 1316 | 295 | 97 | 45 | 22.4% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 3.50 | 4.02 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 42 | 200 | 826 | 185 | 61 | 28 | 22.4% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 3.50 | 4.02 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Troy Melton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 25.1% | 8.0% | 3.4% | — | 4.25 | 24.8% | 16.9% | 363 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 83 |
| Justin Sterner R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 4.3% | .266 | 4.42 | 26.5% | 18.0% | 166 | -0.04 | 3.97 | 252 | 80 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 80 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 79 |
| Isaiah Campbell R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.34 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 74 | +0.77 | 3.29 | 192 | 79 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2029 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 79 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .257 | 5.29 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.90 | 3.39 | 117 | 79 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 79 |
| Jason Adam R 2027 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 5.1% | .241 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 18.8% | 60 | -1.80 | 2.40 | 362 | 79 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 78 |
| Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.15 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 152 | +0.96 | 3.19 | 183 | 78 |
| Will Vest R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .282 | 3.66 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | -0.05 | 2.53 | 421 | 78 |
| Arodys Vizcaíno R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.37 | 27.5% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.59 | 26.4% | 17.8% | 96 | +0.22 | 2.27 | 183 | 78 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 77 |
| Steven Wilson R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 77 |
| Nick Robertson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.43 | 27.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .325 | 4.67 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 102 | +1.24 | 3.43 | 281 | 77 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | .282 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 1.3% | 95 | +0.94 | 3.72 | 164 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Joe Harvey R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .183 | 3.92 | 25.0% | 12.7% | 107 | +0.10 | 2.56 | 197 | 77 |
| Trevor Gott R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.46 | 23.7% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .285 | 3.87 | 25.5% | 16.4% | 106 | +0.41 | 2.70 | 421 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.395 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $4M | +1.4 | $12M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $7M | +1.3 | $12M | +$5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$1M |
| Totals | $23M | $60M | +$38M | ||