Troy Melton
P
Detroit Tigers
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 46 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9989vR 80
ERA3.98
FIP4.08
K%23.0%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%15.8%
ROS IP46
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p4424.4%
K%
p4721.7%
xwOBA vs
p900.269
SL+4.5 (24%)
FB+3.8 (52%)
SI (12%)
CU (5%)
CT-4.0 (11%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 29.4% | 0.0% | 29.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.62 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 29.4% | 0.0% | 29.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 92 | 377 | 94 | 24 | 5 | 96% | 4.0 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 1.6% | 2.74 | 3.31 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 92 | 377 | 94 | 24 | 5 | 96% | 4.0 | 24.9% | 6.4% | 18.6% | 1.3% | 2.74 | 2.55 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 23 | 23 | 101 | 430 | 119 | 30 | 19 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 14.7% | 6.0% | 5.10 | 5.48 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 23 | 23 | 101 | 430 | 119 | 30 | 19 | 100% | 4.4 | 27.7% | 7.0% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 5.10 | 4.08 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 20 | 121 | 492 | 137 | 35 | 13 | 59% | 3.6 | 24.7% | 7.4% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 2.90 | 3.75 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 20 | 121 | 492 | 137 | 35 | 13 | 59% | 3.6 | 27.8% | 7.1% | 20.7% | 2.6% | 2.90 | 3.10 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 12 | 12 | 61 | 234 | 57 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.7% | 5.8% | 15.9% | 3.7% | 1.77 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 45 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 15.8% | 3.7% | 3.98 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 45 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 15.8% | 3.5% | 3.90 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 107 | 428 | 102 | 27 | 14 | — | — | 23.7% | 6.3% | 17.4% | 3.3% | 2.72 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 95 | 402 | 102 | 27 | 14 | — | — | 25.3% | 6.7% | 18.6% | 3.4% | 3.01 | 3.70 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 102 | 432 | 101 | 31 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 7.2% | 16.1% | 3.6% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 105 | 442 | 103 | 33 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 7.4% | 15.9% | 3.6% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 105 | 442 | 102 | 33 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.1% | 7.5% | 15.5% | 3.7% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 95 | 33 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 7.8% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 86 | 32 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 4.0% | 4.75 | 4.86 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 88 | 370 | 78 | 31 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 4.96 | 5.09 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 69 | 30 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 4.5% | 5.19 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 96 | 30 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 7.2% | 16.1% | 3.4% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 97 | 31 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 7.4% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.35 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 96 | 31 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.1% | 7.5% | 15.5% | 3.5% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 90 | 31 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 7.8% | 14.7% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 82 | 30 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 4.77 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 74 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 4.1% | 4.86 | 4.99 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 66 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 4.3% | 5.09 | 5.25 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 140 | 128 | 782 | 3268 | 724 | 252 | 121 | 91% | 5.6 | 22.1% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 4.24 | 4.25 | +10.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 33 | 200 | 836 | 185 | 64 | 31 | 91% | 5.6 | 22.1% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 4.24 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 94 | 79 | 380 | 1550 | 345 | 111 | 57 | 84% | 4.0 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 3.22 | 4.13 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 42 | 200 | 817 | 182 | 58 | 30 | 84% | 4.0 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 3.22 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Troy Melton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 24.3% | 8.0% | 3.6% | — | 4.44 | 23.2% | 15.9% | 312 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 77 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 75 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 74 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 72 |
| Ryan Johnson R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.81 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 126 | 72 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 72 |
| Mitch White R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.58 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 4.3% | .309 | 3.59 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 194 | -0.99 | 2.49 | 626 | 72 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.52 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .264 | 3.82 | 24.9% | 12.4% | 117 | +0.30 | 3.12 | 187 | 71 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 71 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 71 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.59 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.39 | 23.9% | 16.4% | 335 | -0.20 | 2.76 | 537 | 71 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 71 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 71 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 70 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 70 |
| Jeffrey Passantino R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.13 | 18.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .298 | 4.58 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 41 | -0.55 | 2.02 | 242 | 70 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 70 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .249 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 68 | -0.69 | 2.65 | 302 | 69 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 69 |
| Will Sanders R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.48 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 4.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 259 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 96 | 22.5% | 7.9% | 1.49 | 4.61 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Matt Shoemaker ('21) | 7 | 75 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.48 | 4.59 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Domingo Germán ('24) | 6 | 88 | 24.4% | 7.4% | 1.65 | 4.58 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |