Troy Melton — OGILVIE

Troy Melton P Detroit Tigers

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION120 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 89

ERA4.03

FIP4.10

K%21.3%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

SL+4.5 (24%)

FB+3.8 (52%)

SI (12%)

CU (5%)

CT-4.0 (11%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.395 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	5	17	5	0	0	100%	2.5	29.4%	0.0%	29.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.62	—
2022	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	5	17	5	0	0	100%	2.5	29.4%	0.0%	29.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	92	377	94	24	5	96%	4.0	18.9%	7.4%	11.6%	1.6%	2.74	3.31	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	92	377	94	24	5	96%	4.0	18.9%	7.4%	11.6%	1.6%	2.74	3.31	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	92	377	94	24	5	96%	4.0	24.9%	6.4%	18.6%	1.3%	2.74	2.55	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	23	23	101	430	119	30	19	100%	4.4	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	5.6%	5.10	5.27	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	23	23	101	430	119	30	19	100%	4.4	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	5.6%	5.10	5.27	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	23	23	101	430	119	30	19	100%	4.4	27.7%	7.0%	20.7%	4.4%	5.10	4.08	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	20	121	492	137	35	13	59%	3.6	24.2%	7.2%	17.0%	3.0%	2.90	3.61	+1.9
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	20	121	492	137	35	13	59%	3.6	24.2%	7.2%	17.0%	3.0%	2.90	3.61	+1.9
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	20	121	492	137	35	13	59%	3.6	27.8%	7.1%	20.7%	2.6%	2.90	3.10	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	22	154	614	123	45	20	65%	4.5	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	3.3%	2.52	4.07	+1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	22	22	120	479	103	32	13	100%	5.4	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	3.1%	2.33	4.00	+1.3
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	22	22	120	479	103	32	13	100%	5.4	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	3.1%	2.33	4.00	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	DET	3	3	10	34	13	0	0	100%	3.2	38.2%	0.0%	38.2%	0.0%	1.86	-0.13	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	DET	1	1	2	11	3	2	0	100%	2.0	27.3%	18.2%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	DET	18	18	108	434	87	30	13	100%	6.0	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	3.0%	2.42	3.93	+1.3
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	DET	18	18	108	434	87	30	13	100%	6.0	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	3.0%	2.42	3.93	+1.3
ROS	25	MLB MLE	DET	2	2	11	45	10	3	2	100%	5.3	21.3%	7.3%	14.0%	3.4%	4.03	4.10	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	DET	2	2	11	46	10	3	2	100%	5.5	21.3%	7.3%	14.0%	3.3%	3.95	4.02	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	130	524	113	35	15	—	—	21.5%	6.7%	14.8%	2.8%	2.47	4.01	+1.4
FULL	25	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	119	501	113	35	14	—	—	22.5%	7.0%	15.4%	2.9%	2.71	3.68	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	21	21	124	524	115	38	17	100%	5.9	21.9%	7.2%	14.7%	3.3%	4.32	4.34	+0.8
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	21	21	126	533	117	39	18	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	3.3%	4.35	4.38	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	21	21	126	533	116	40	18	100%	6.0	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	3.4%	4.42	4.46	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	121	509	108	39	18	100%	6.0	21.2%	7.7%	13.5%	3.6%	4.54	4.62	+0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	113	479	98	38	18	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	3.8%	4.71	4.83	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	106	446	88	37	18	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	4.0%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	20	20	118	498	109	36	16	100%	5.9	21.9%	7.2%	14.7%	3.1%	4.24	4.26	+0.8
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	20	20	120	507	111	37	16	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	3.2%	4.27	4.30	+0.7
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	20	20	120	507	110	38	17	100%	6.0	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	3.3%	4.34	4.38	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	115	486	103	37	17	100%	6.1	21.2%	7.7%	13.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.54	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	DET	18	18	108	456	93	36	16	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	3.6%	4.62	4.74	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	DET	17	17	100	422	83	35	16	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	3.8%	4.83	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		149	137	845	3533	742	268	119	92%	5.7	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	3.4%	4.09	4.13	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	836	176	63	28	92%	5.7	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	3.4%	4.09	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		104	89	438	1795	388	129	60	86%	4.2	21.6%	7.2%	14.4%	3.3%	3.18	4.02	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	41	200	819	177	59	27	86%	4.2	21.6%	7.2%	14.4%	3.3%	3.18	4.02	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Troy Melton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	24.1%	7.8%	3.5%	—	4.39	21.9%	14.5%	377	+0.05	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	79
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	75
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	75
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	74
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	74
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	74
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	73
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	73
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	73
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	73
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	73
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	73
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	72
Jeffrey Passantino R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	25	SP	4.97	18.5%	6.8%	4.7%	.298	4.72	14.8%	8.1%	41	-0.25	2.02	242	72
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	72
Jayden Murray R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP	4.50	16.9%	8.6%	3.2%	.258	4.65	18.5%	7.2%	105	+0.15	3.80	363	71
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	801	71
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	71
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	116	21.5%	7.7%	1.36	4.50
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38