Troy Melton

P Detroit Tigers

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AADET	23	23	101	5.10	4.08	27.7%	7.0%	—	K 22.4% · BB 7.7% · FIP 5.27
2025	24	MIX3 levels	34	20	121	2.90	3.10	27.8%	7.1%	3.4	K 24.5% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.58
2026	25	MIX3 levels	24	24	126	2.64	3.62	21.4%	7.6%	2.7	K 20.0% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.99
2027PROJ	26	MLBDET	15	15	92	4.07	4.34	22.0%	8.0%	1.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBDET	13	13	77	4.19	4.31	22.0%	8.1%	0.9
2029PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBDET	12	12	69	4.30	4.38	21.9%	8.2%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.395First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo77

xwOBA vs60

K%35

Form7.79 ERA (proj 4.07) · K 15.9% (proj 22.0%) · BB 10.2% (proj 8.0%) ▼▼ last 60d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsBrandon Sproat (age 23) · Andy Ferguson (age 26) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 93

ERA4.07

FIP4.34

K%22.0%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%14.0%

Proj IP92

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.395 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$17M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	5	17	5	0	0	100%	2.5	29.4%	0.0%	29.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.62	—
2022	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	5	17	5	0	0	100%	2.5	29.4%	0.0%	29.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	92	377	94	24	5	96%	4.0	18.9%	7.4%	11.6%	1.6%	2.74	3.31	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	92	377	94	24	5	96%	4.0	24.9%	6.4%	18.6%	1.3%	2.74	2.55	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	23	23	101	430	119	30	19	100%	4.4	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	5.6%	5.10	5.27	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	23	23	101	430	119	30	19	100%	4.4	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	5.6%	5.10	5.27	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	23	23	101	430	119	30	19	100%	4.4	27.7%	7.0%	20.7%	4.4%	5.10	4.08	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	20	121	492	137	35	13	59%	3.6	24.5%	7.2%	17.4%	3.0%	2.90	3.58	+2.6
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	20	121	492	137	35	13	59%	3.6	24.5%	7.2%	17.4%	3.0%	2.90	3.58	+2.6
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	20	121	492	137	35	13	59%	3.6	27.8%	7.1%	20.7%	2.6%	2.90	3.10	+3.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	126	515	110	39	13	100%	5.2	20.0%	7.9%	12.1%	2.9%	2.64	3.99	+2.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	126	515	110	39	13	100%	5.2	20.0%	7.9%	12.1%	2.9%	2.64	3.99	+2.1
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	126	515	110	39	13	100%	5.2	21.4%	7.6%	13.8%	2.5%	2.64	3.62	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			36	24	160	650	130	52	20	67%	4.4	20.0%	8.0%	12.0%	3.1%	2.76	4.08	+2.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	DET	15	15	92	388	85	31	12	100%	6.1	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	3.1%	4.07	4.34	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	81	343	75	28	11	100%	5.8	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	3.1%	4.26	4.38	+1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	73	307	67	25	10	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.2%	13.6%	3.2%	4.38	4.46	+0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	62	264	56	22	9	100%	6.2	21.3%	8.5%	12.8%	3.4%	4.53	4.62	+0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	51	217	45	19	8	100%	5.7	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	3.6%	4.71	4.83	+0.3
2032	31	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	40	167	33	15	6	100%	5.7	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	3.8%	4.92	5.06	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	77	325	71	26	10	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	3.0%	4.19	4.31	+0.9
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	69	291	64	24	9	100%	5.8	21.9%	8.2%	13.6%	3.1%	4.30	4.38	+0.8
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	59	249	53	21	8	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.5%	12.8%	3.3%	4.45	4.54	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	49	207	43	18	7	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	3.4%	4.63	4.75	+0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	38	160	32	15	6	100%	6.3	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	3.7%	4.83	4.97	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	73	452	1883	392	156	60	86%	5.3	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	3.2%	3.83	4.14	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	32	200	833	173	69	27	86%	5.3	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	3.2%	3.83	4.14	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		106	91	445	1831	396	137	60	86%	4.2	21.6%	7.5%	14.2%	3.3%	3.26	4.01	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	41	200	824	178	61	27	86%	4.2	21.6%	7.5%	14.2%	3.3%	3.26	4.01	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 10 IPFIP -0.13 → 0.71 (+0.84)K% 38.2% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.24%	—	×0.740	28.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -0.13 → 0.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 39 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.54 (+0.57)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.44%	—	×0.810	22.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.71%	—	×1.100	7.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷1.056	×1.200	0.69%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 36 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.39 (+0.86)K% 37.8% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.84%	—	×0.860	32.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.08%	—	×0.900	5.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷0.872	×1.100	4.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 101 IPFIP 4.07 → 5.27 (+1.20)K% 27.7% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.67%	—	×0.810	22.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.100	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	4.42%	÷0.941	×1.200	5.63%

Result: FIP 4.07 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 65 IPFIP 2.44 → 3.18 (+0.74)K% 22.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.85%	—	×0.770	17.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.74%	—	×1.150	7.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷0.882	×1.250	1.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.44 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 27 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.64 (+0.89)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.740	22.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.45%	—	×1.180	6.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷1.216	×1.300	2.92%

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Troy Melton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	22.0%	8.0%	3.1%	—	4.48	21.7%	13.5%	216	+0.14	—	—	—
Brandon Sproat R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.264	3.94	21.7%	11.0%	261	-0.45	3.43	377	74
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	73
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	73
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	73
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	73
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	73
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP	4.61	16.0%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.54	21.7%	13.5%	105	-1.07	2.42	444	72
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	72
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	71
Mike Clevinger R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	26	SP-	3.64	26.5%	11.3%	2.5%	.274	3.11	28.3%	20.3%	368	-0.53	2.28	1,236	71
Louis Varland R 2024 · 4.42 FIP	26	SP-	4.42	21.7%	7.2%	4.1%	.329	2.31	28.6%	21.4%	151	-2.11	1.70	689	71
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	70
Julian Merryweather R 2017 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	19.4%	6.6%	2.7%	.330	2.18	27.3%	16.4%	13	-1.61	2.18	548	70
Spencer Howard R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	22.2%	9.3%	4.2%	.314	4.93	25.8%	17.1%	112	+0.24	2.33	484	70
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	70
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	70
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	70
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	70
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	70
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	70	21.0%	8.3%	1.26	3.93
Bill Dawley ('83-'89, 4 WAR*)	2.4	94	19.6%*	8.3%*	1.30*	3.85*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*
Vicente Romo ('68-'82, 5 WAR*)	3.2	81	20.5%*	9.7%*	1.21*	4.01*
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Scott Sullivan ('04)	3.7	92	19.8%	8.9%	1.09	3.98