Julian Merryweather

P St. Paul Saints

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	32	MIX3 levels	21	0	22	4.98	2.45	21.6%	9.8%	0.5	K 18.9% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.04
2025	33	MIX2 levels	44	0	42	5.83	4.59	24.3%	11.1%	-0.0	K 22.0% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.61
2026	34	MIX3 levels	25	2	27	4.05	2.84	31.0%	7.1%	—	K 27.0% · BB 9.0% · FIP 2.82
2027PROJ	35	MLBMIN	5	0	5	4.77	4.57	23.6%	11.8%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.87	4.94	22.6%	12.4%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo71

K%14

xwOBA vs10

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Jean Machi (age 35) · Hirokazu Sawamura (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.77

FIP4.57

K%23.6%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p1019.2%

p1417.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.391

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	A MLE	Lake County Captains	21	4	71	318	69	11	6	19%	3.4	16.1%	4.1%	12.0%	2.1%	4.08	3.41	—
2015	23	A RAW	Lake County Captains	21	4	71	318	69	11	6	19%	3.4	21.7%	3.5%	18.2%	1.9%	4.08	2.72	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	135	561	119	32	10	100%	5.6	16.8%	6.4%	10.4%	2.3%	2.60	3.76	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	135	561	119	32	10	100%	5.6	21.2%	5.7%	15.5%	1.8%	2.60	3.01	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	561	128	35	16	100%	5.1	19.4%	6.6%	12.8%	2.7%	5.32	3.79	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	129	561	128	35	16	100%	5.1	22.8%	6.2%	16.6%	2.9%	5.32	3.54	—
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	6	29	7	2	1	100%	3.0	24.1%	6.9%	17.2%	3.4%	9.00	3.83	—
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	6	29	7	2	1	100%	3.0	24.1%	6.9%	17.2%	3.4%	9.00	3.93	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	8	3	13	55	15	6	0	38%	1.6	27.3%	10.9%	16.4%	0.0%	4.15	2.18	+0.4
2020	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	8	3	13	55	15	6	0	38%	1.6	27.3%	10.9%	16.4%	0.0%	4.15	2.18	+0.4
2021	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	3	18	78	19	6	4	16%	0.9	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	7.3%	5.00	6.17	-0.3
2021	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	3	18	78	19	6	4	16%	0.9	24.4%	7.7%	16.7%	5.1%	5.00	4.88	-0.1
2022	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	2	43	180	45	12	4	5%	1.0	22.3%	7.1%	15.3%	2.3%	4.19	3.37	+0.6
2022	30	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	2	43	180	45	12	4	5%	1.0	25.0%	6.7%	18.3%	2.2%	4.19	3.05	+0.8
2023	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	69	0	72	303	98	36	8	0%	1.0	32.3%	11.9%	20.5%	2.7%	3.38	3.38	+1.0
2023	31	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	69	0	72	303	98	36	8	0%	1.0	32.3%	11.9%	20.5%	2.6%	3.38	3.32	+1.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	0	22	102	22	10	0	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.2%	6.8%	0.0%	4.98	3.04	+0.4
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	0	22	102	22	10	0	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.2%	6.8%	0.0%	4.98	3.04	+0.4
2024	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	0	22	102	22	10	0	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	0.0%	4.98	2.45	+0.5
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	42	189	46	21	7	0%	0.9	22.0%	10.5%	11.6%	3.7%	5.83	4.61	-0.0
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	42	189	46	21	7	0%	0.9	22.0%	10.5%	11.6%	3.7%	5.83	4.61	-0.0
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	42	189	46	21	7	0%	0.9	24.3%	11.1%	13.2%	3.7%	5.83	4.59	-0.0
2026	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	27	113	35	8	3	8%	1.1	27.0%	9.0%	18.0%	1.6%	4.05	2.82	—
2026	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	27	113	35	8	3	8%	1.1	27.0%	9.0%	18.0%	1.6%	4.05	2.82	—
2026	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	2	27	113	35	8	3	8%	1.1	31.0%	7.1%	23.9%	2.7%	4.05	2.84	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			152	5	158	694	177	70	18	3%	1.0	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	2.6%	4.72	3.67	+1.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	MIN	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	11.8%	11.9%	2.9%	4.77	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	MIN	31	0	33	138	31	17	5	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.4%	10.2%	3.3%	4.87	4.94	-0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	12.4%	10.2%	3.3%	4.87	4.94	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		152	5	159	695	177	70	18	3%	1.0	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	2.6%	4.72	3.65	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	6	200	877	223	88	23	3%	1.0	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	2.6%	4.72	3.65	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		299	65	576	2489	523	191	63	22%	1.9	21.0%	7.7%	13.3%	2.5%	4.17	3.68	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	23	200	864	181	66	22	22%	1.9	21.0%	7.7%	13.3%	2.5%	4.17	3.68	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 18 IPFIP 2.50 → 2.82 (+0.32)K% 31.4% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.43%	—	×0.860	27.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 4 IPFIP 4.02 → 5.44 (+1.42)K% 17.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.680	11.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.000	×1.400	6.09%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 4 IPFIP 2.68 → 4.60 (+1.93)K% 45.0% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.00%	—	×0.740	33.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.180	5.90%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	6.50%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 23 IPFIP 4.73 → 4.91 (+0.18)K% 30.7% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.69%	—	×0.860	26.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.88%	—	×0.900	10.69%
HR / BF /BF	4.95%	÷1.111	×1.100	4.90%

Result: FIP 4.73 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 6 IPFIP 0.90 → 1.23 (+0.33)K% 32.0% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.00%	—	×0.860	27.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×0.900	3.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.079	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.90 → 1.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 14 IPFIP 1.72 → 2.12 (+0.40)K% 32.7% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.73%	—	×0.880	28.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×1.050	11.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.951	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.72 → 2.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAColumbus Clippers · 78 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.24 (+0.05)K% 21.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.29%	—	×0.880	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.00%	—	×1.050	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.231	×1.100	3.25%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAkron RubberDucks · 51 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.00 (+0.62)K% 25.5% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.810	20.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.90%	—	×1.100	5.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.008	×1.200	1.75%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julian Merryweather (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	23.6%	11.8%	2.9%	—	4.94	22.6%	10.2%	33	+0.37	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	70
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	69
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	68
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	67
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	66
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	66
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	66
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	66
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	65
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	65
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	64
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	64
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	63
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	63
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	60
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	60
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	60
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	58
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	219	57
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	60	24.8%	11.0%	1.06	4.75
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*