Julian Merryweather
P
FCL Twins
Age 34
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION7 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 106
ERA4.71
FIP4.67
K%24.1%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p1019.2%
K%
p1417.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.391
SL (51%)
CH-0.7 (1%)
FB-2.8 (48%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A | Lake County Captains | 21 | 4 | 71 | 318 | 69 | 11 | 6 | 19% | 3.4 | 16.1% | 4.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 4.08 | 3.27 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A | Lake County Captains | 21 | 4 | 71 | 318 | 69 | 11 | 6 | 19% | 3.4 | 21.7% | 3.5% | 18.2% | 1.9% | 4.08 | 2.72 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 135 | 561 | 119 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 16.8% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 2.5% | 2.60 | 3.85 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 135 | 561 | 119 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 2.60 | 3.01 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 129 | 561 | 128 | 35 | 16 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 2.4% | 5.32 | 3.60 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 129 | 561 | 128 | 35 | 16 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.8% | 6.2% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 5.32 | 3.54 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 24.1% | 6.9% | 17.2% | 3.4% | 9.00 | 3.83 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 24.1% | 6.9% | 17.2% | 3.4% | 9.00 | 3.93 | — |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 8 | 3 | 13 | 55 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 38% | 1.6 | 27.3% | 10.9% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 2.18 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 8 | 3 | 13 | 55 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 38% | 1.6 | 27.3% | 10.9% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 2.18 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 3 | 18 | 78 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 16% | 0.9 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 7.3% | 5.00 | 6.17 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 3 | 18 | 78 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 16% | 0.9 | 24.4% | 7.7% | 16.7% | 5.1% | 5.00 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 4 levels | 41 | 2 | 43 | 180 | 45 | 12 | 4 | 5% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 7.1% | 15.3% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 3.37 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 4 levels | 41 | 2 | 43 | 180 | 45 | 12 | 4 | 5% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 18.3% | 2.2% | 4.19 | 3.05 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 69 | 0 | 72 | 303 | 98 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.3% | 11.9% | 20.5% | 2.6% | 3.38 | 3.29 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 69 | 0 | 72 | 303 | 98 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.3% | 11.9% | 20.5% | 2.6% | 3.38 | 3.32 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 0 | 22 | 102 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 4.98 | 3.04 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 0 | 22 | 102 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 4.98 | 2.45 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 42 | 189 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 5.83 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 42 | 189 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 5.83 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 6 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 33% | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | 9.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | MIN | 53 | 0 | 55 | 234 | 56 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.1% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.67 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 62 | 269 | 66 | 31 | 8 | — | — | 24.6% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 5.22 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 48 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 41 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 5.18 | 5.38 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 5.01 | — |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.1% | 14.1% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 5.18 | 5.38 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 152 | 5 | 158 | 694 | 177 | 70 | 18 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 3.65 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 6 | 200 | 877 | 224 | 88 | 23 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 280 | 65 | 556 | 2411 | 503 | 184 | 59 | 23% | 2.0 | 20.9% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 3.65 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 23 | 200 | 867 | 181 | 66 | 21 | 23% | 2.0 | 20.9% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julian Merryweather (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 2.9% | — | 5.18 | 22.6% | 8.8% | 94 | +0.51 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 70 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 187 | 68 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .253 | 5.26 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 32 | +1.54 | 3.41 | 212 | 68 |
| Radhames Liz R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 67 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 67 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 66 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 66 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 65 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 65 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 65 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.93 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 277 | 65 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 65 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 64 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 64 |
| Matt Bush R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.74 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 64 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 64 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 63 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.83 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 4.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 170 | 62 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 62 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.24 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .412 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 137 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 50 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 1.24 | 4.91 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |