Kruz Schoolcraft

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 20 LHP 6'8" / 229 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#171ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ASD	1	1	2	10.80	3.70	44.4%	33.3%	—	K 44.4% · BB 33.3% · FIP 3.57
2026	19	ASD	22	22	79	5.90	3.84	22.3%	15.5%	—	K 16.5% · BB 18.3% · FIP 4.80
2027PROJ	20	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.67	5.67	18.7%	18.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBSD	9	9	47	5.37	5.23	20.3%	15.4%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBSD	15	15	84	5.01	4.81	22.0%	13.4%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Arb-2$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 9.3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 86%

CompsJacob Bresnahan (age 19) · Doug Nikhazy (age 22) · John Beller (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%18.7%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%0.7%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$52M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$8M	+$6M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	+1.5	$7M	+$4M
2035	Arb-3	$7M	+1.3	$6M	+$3M
Totals		$18M		$43M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	1	1	2	9	4	3	0	100%	1.7	44.4%	33.3%	11.1%	0.0%	10.80	3.57	—
2025	18	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	1	1	2	9	4	3	0	100%	1.7	44.4%	33.3%	11.1%	0.0%	10.80	3.57	—
2025	18	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	1	1	2	9	4	3	0	100%	1.7	44.4%	33.3%	11.1%	0.0%	10.80	3.70	—
2026	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	22	79	368	82	57	4	100%	3.6	16.5%	18.3%	-1.8%	1.4%	5.90	4.80	—
2026	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	22	79	368	82	57	4	100%	3.6	16.5%	18.3%	-1.8%	1.4%	5.90	4.80	—
2026	19	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	22	79	368	82	57	4	100%	3.6	22.3%	15.5%	6.8%	1.1%	5.90	3.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	18.0%	0.7%	2.7%	5.67	5.67	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	95	403	82	62	11	100%	5.6	20.3%	15.4%	5.0%	2.7%	5.33	5.19	+0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	116	489	108	66	13	100%	5.5	22.0%	13.4%	8.6%	2.7%	4.97	4.77	+0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	116	489	113	59	13	100%	5.5	23.1%	12.1%	11.0%	2.6%	4.68	4.51	+1.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	118	496	118	56	13	100%	5.6	23.7%	11.3%	12.5%	2.6%	4.47	4.34	+1.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	116	491	118	53	13	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	2.6%	4.33	4.23	+1.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	117	492	120	53	13	100%	6.1	24.3%	10.7%	13.6%	2.6%	4.26	4.21	+1.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	114	481	117	52	13	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	2.6%	4.25	4.25	+1.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	109	459	111	50	13	100%	6.0	24.2%	11.0%	13.2%	2.7%	4.30	4.33	+1.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	101	428	103	48	12	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.40	4.46	+1.1
2037	30	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	92	391	92	45	12	100%	6.2	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	3.1%	4.54	4.64	+0.8
2038	31	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	83	352	82	42	12	100%	6.0	23.2%	11.8%	11.4%	3.3%	4.72	4.84	+0.5
2039	32	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	75	315	72	39	11	100%	6.2	22.8%	12.2%	10.5%	3.6%	4.93	5.07	+0.3
2040	33	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	67	281	63	36	11	100%	6.1	22.3%	12.7%	9.6%	3.8%	5.16	5.32	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	47	198	40	31	5	100%	5.2	20.3%	15.4%	5.0%	2.8%	5.37	5.23	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	84	355	78	48	10	100%	5.6	22.0%	13.4%	8.6%	2.7%	5.01	4.81	+0.6
2030	23	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	98	414	96	50	11	100%	5.4	23.1%	12.1%	11.0%	2.7%	4.72	4.55	+1.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	105	443	105	50	12	100%	5.5	23.7%	11.3%	12.5%	2.7%	4.51	4.38	+1.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	107	452	109	49	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	2.7%	4.37	4.27	+1.5
2033	26	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	109	460	112	49	12	100%	6.1	24.3%	10.7%	13.6%	2.7%	4.30	4.25	+1.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	108	456	111	49	12	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	2.7%	4.29	4.29	+1.5
2035	28	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	103	435	105	48	12	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.0%	13.2%	2.8%	4.34	4.37	+1.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	96	405	97	45	12	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	3.0%	4.44	4.50	+1.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	88	372	88	43	12	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	3.2%	4.58	4.68	+0.8
2038	31	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	79	334	77	39	11	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.8%	11.4%	3.4%	4.77	4.89	+0.5
2039	32	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	71	300	68	37	11	100%	5.9	22.8%	12.2%	10.5%	3.7%	4.98	5.12	+0.3
2040	33	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	63	266	59	34	10	100%	6.3	22.3%	12.7%	9.6%	3.9%	5.21	5.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		201	201	1159	4891	1147	571	144	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.7%	11.8%	2.9%	4.61	4.21	+16.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	198	99	25	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.7%	11.8%	2.9%	4.61	4.21	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		23	23	81	377	65	70	5	100%	3.5	17.2%	18.6%	-1.5%	1.4%	6.00	4.77	+12.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	57	200	931	160	173	13	100%	3.5	17.2%	18.6%	-1.5%	1.4%	6.00	4.77	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 79 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.80 (+1.02)K% 22.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.28%	—	×0.740	16.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.49%	—	×1.180	18.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kruz Schoolcraft (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.80	21.9%	8.4%	327	-0.87	—	—	—
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	82
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.75	20.9%	8.5%	312	-0.24	4.12	463	82
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	80
Jacob Heatherly L 2018 · 6.27 FIP	20	SP	6.27	18.1%	27.2%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	192	80
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	78
Matt Imhof L 2015 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP	5.13	13.6%	13.5%	2.7%	.282	5.68	15.9%	-5.4%	53	+0.55	5.13	131	78
Dennis Herrera L 2019 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	14.8%	16.0%	2.0%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	124	78
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	77
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	76
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	75
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	75
Kodi Medeiros L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	20	SP	4.93	12.0%	17.6%	1.1%	.349	4.54	17.4%	5.3%	349	-0.39	3.13	568	75
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	74
Diomede Sierra L 2022 · 5.23 FIP	20	SP	5.23	17.1%	16.1%	2.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	137	74
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	74
Frank Mozzicato L 2023 · 5.42 FIP	20	SP	5.42	23.6%	18.9%	3.5%	.284	5.95	17.9%	-1.5%	266	+0.53	5.00	428	74
Blake Taylor L 2017 · 4.93 FIP	21	SP	4.93	13.7%	14.8%	2.0%	.293	3.89	18.8%	5.9%	174	-1.04	3.18	395	74
Naswell Paulino L 2021 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP	4.82	18.9%	15.8%	2.4%	.265	5.21	16.9%	4.4%	167	+0.39	3.72	320	73
Bryan Magdaleno L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	20	SP	4.62	14.3%	18.0%	0.8%	.290	3.80	22.2%	5.9%	63	-0.82	3.40	191	73
Liam Norris L 2022 · 6.64 FIP	20	SP	6.64	19.5%	22.6%	4.2%	.296	5.53	27.7%	4.1%	80	-1.11	3.98	184	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.0	101	23.0%	12.2%	1.10	4.67
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Jorge De La Rosa ('18)	7.6	109	19.1%	10.3%	1.05	4.58
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15