John Beller
P
Lansing Lugnuts
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 175 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.7%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 21 | 19 | 80 | 369 | 98 | 44 | 6 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | 4.59 | 4.60 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 28 | 2 | 43 | 181 | 53 | 26 | 4 | 22.9% | 16.1% | 2.5% | 4.43 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 38 | 0 | 47 | 210 | 59 | 26 | 4 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 21 | 170 | 760 | 159 | 111 | 18 | 21.0% | 14.6% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 25 | 200 | 892 | 187 | 130 | 21 | 21.0% | 14.6% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Beller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 116 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 84 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 83 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 82 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 81 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 80 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 80 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.09 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.75 | 3.09 | 145 | 79 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .336 | 3.58 | 25.2% | 16.4% | 44 | -0.49 | 1.84 | 238 | 79 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.4% | .367 | 4.35 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.06 | 3.29 | 180 | 78 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 78 |
| Edward Paredes L 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 78 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .368 | 3.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.27 | 3.02 | 153 | 78 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 78 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 77 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 77 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 77 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 206 | 77 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 128 | 77 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 141 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.