John Beller
P
Lansing Lugnuts
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 175 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%23.3%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 21 | 19 | 80 | 369 | 98 | 44 | 6 | 90% | 3.8 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 4.59 | 4.59 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 21 | 19 | 80 | 369 | 98 | 44 | 6 | 90% | 3.8 | 26.6% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 1.6% | 4.59 | 3.27 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 2 | 43 | 181 | 53 | 26 | 4 | 7% | 1.5 | 22.9% | 16.1% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.43 | 4.46 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 2 | 43 | 181 | 53 | 26 | 4 | 7% | 1.5 | 29.3% | 14.4% | 14.9% | 2.2% | 4.43 | 3.66 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 38 | 0 | 47 | 210 | 59 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 4.18 | 4.00 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 38 | 0 | 47 | 210 | 59 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.1% | 12.4% | 15.7% | 1.9% | 4.18 | 3.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 0 | 27 | 116 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.05 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 80 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 87 | 21 | 170 | 760 | 159 | 111 | 17 | 24% | 2.0 | 21.0% | 14.6% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 4.44 | 4.40 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 25 | 200 | 892 | 187 | 130 | 20 | 24% | 2.0 | 21.0% | 14.6% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 4.44 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Beller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 23.2% | 13.5% | 27 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 79 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 76 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 75 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 75 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 75 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 74 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 73 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 73 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 73 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 73 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 72 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.3% | .367 | 4.30 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.04 | 3.26 | 180 | 72 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 72 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 72 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 72 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 71 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 71 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.32 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.2% | .368 | 3.66 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.34 | 3.04 | 153 | 71 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 71 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.65 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 308 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 1.17 | 4.37 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |