Liam Norris
P
Hillsboro Hops
+0.0
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
A+
ERA5.30
FIP5.30
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.7%
BB%16.2%
K-BB%7.5%
IP26
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 16 | 14 | 42 | 227 | 54 | 60 | 2 | 17.4% | 30.7% | 1.4% | 9.35 | 6.26 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 20 | 18 | 66 | 318 | 84 | 61 | 11 | 19.5% | 22.6% | 4.1% | 7.33 | 6.55 | -1.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 42 | 0 | 56 | 241 | 93 | 37 | 5 | 30.0% | 16.8% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 8 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 8 | 9 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.87 | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 22 | 0 | 27 | 155 | 47 | 50 | 6 | 23.3% | 37.1% | 5.0% | 8.67 | 8.58 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 26 | — | 26 | 110 | 26 | 18 | 4 | 23.7% | 16.2% | 3.2% | 5.30 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 24.0% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 5.07 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 33 | 199 | 979 | 218 | 248 | 30 | 22.3% | 25.4% | 3.0% | 6.96 | 6.09 | -1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 33 | 200 | 984 | 219 | 249 | 30 | 22.3% | 25.4% | 3.0% | 6.96 | 6.09 | -1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Liam Norris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 23.7% | 16.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.98 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 26 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .305 | 3.85 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -1.02 | 3.49 | 165 | 95 |
| Ben Harris L 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.64 | 23.8% | 19.6% | 3.8% | .291 | 5.13 | 21.6% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.06 | 183 | 86 |
| Dillon Larsen L 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.84 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 3.4% | .277 | 4.64 | 18.0% | -4.1% | 91 | -1.20 | 4.04 | 120 | 86 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2027 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 86 |
| Jimmy Burnette L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.52 | 25.5% | 18.2% | 2.3% | .336 | 3.62 | 20.0% | 4.1% | 59 | -0.90 | 3.06 | 158 | 83 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 22.3% | 20.0% | 2.1% | .361 | 4.75 | 18.5% | 5.2% | 136 | -0.15 | 4.15 | 151 | 83 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 170 | 83 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.13 | 18.9% | 17.6% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.27 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 82 | -0.86 | 4.16 | 101 | 83 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 2.8% | .294 | 3.59 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 63 | -1.06 | 2.63 | 160 | 83 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 24.7% | 15.6% | 3.1% | .320 | 4.48 | 22.5% | 10.5% | 163 | -0.23 | 3.96 | 265 | 83 |
| Randy Labaut L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 23.2% | 14.0% | 3.6% | .240 | 4.80 | 19.5% | 5.0% | 190 | -0.12 | 1.91 | 302 | 82 |
| Gil Luna L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.37 | 22.5% | 24.5% | 1.9% | .303 | 4.96 | 19.7% | -6.0% | 73 | -0.41 | 4.57 | 113 | 81 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.29 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .368 | 4.12 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.17 | 3.52 | 175 | 81 |
| Ty Damron L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 24.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .358 | 4.34 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 134 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 346 | 80 |
| Matt Minnick L 2025 · 5.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.59 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.67 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 105 | -0.92 | 3.81 | 147 | 79 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | .289 | 3.60 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 60 | -1.01 | 3.60 | 136 | 79 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.65 | 18.9% | 16.2% | 3.8% | .267 | 4.55 | 17.7% | -2.7% | 32 | -1.10 | 4.22 | 128 | 79 |
| Yoan Aybar L 2026 · 5.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.91 | 19.2% | 16.2% | 4.3% | .323 | 6.02 | 20.9% | 1.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 3.41 | 166 | 79 |
| Christian Chamberlain L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 27.0% | 18.9% | 2.2% | .238 | 3.91 | 20.7% | 0.5% | 43 | -0.51 | 3.91 | 148 | 78 |
| Brian Moran L 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.