Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 7 | 1 | 13 | 59 | 16 | 17 | 0 | 14% | 1.8 | 20.1% | 34.0% | -13.9% | 0.0% | 2.13 | 5.71 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 7 | 1 | 13 | 59 | 16 | 17 | 0 | 14% | 1.8 | 27.1% | 28.8% | -1.7% | 0.0% | 2.13 | 4.60 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 12 | 91 | 354 | 86 | 31 | 5 | 52% | 4.0 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 1.98 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 12 | 91 | 354 | 86 | 31 | 5 | 52% | 4.0 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 15.5% | 1.4% | 1.98 | 2.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 20 | 1 | 31 | 145 | 34 | 26 | 2 | 5% | 1.5 | 18.1% | 20.6% | -2.6% | 1.7% | 5.28 | 5.13 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ATL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 48 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.2% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 5.31 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 101 | 441 | 82 | 64 | 11 | — | — | 18.6% | 14.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 5.30 | 5.26 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.2% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 49 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.23 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 49 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.22 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 47 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.28 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.23 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 28 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.22 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.28 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 0 | 110 | 465 | 80 | 58 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 12.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 4.91 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 145 | 105 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 12.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 4.91 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 14 | 134 | 558 | 103 | 86 | 11 | 28% | 2.7 | 18.5% | 15.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.75 | 4.59 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 21 | 200 | 831 | 153 | 128 | 17 | 28% | 2.7 | 18.5% | 15.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.75 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Kroeger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.31 | 16.2% | 12.7% | 2.9% | — | 5.28 | 17.2% | 4.8% | 200 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 82 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .258 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 4.6% | 144 | +0.04 | 4.44 | 188 | 80 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 80 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 80 |
| Drake Britton L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 79 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 78 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 78 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 77 |
| Will Lamb L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 76 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 219 | 75 |
| Adam Scott L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.27 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 4.1% | .317 | 4.96 | 16.5% | -3.6% | 46 | -0.31 | 4.53 | 315 | 75 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.01 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 49 | -0.26 | 2.69 | 221 | 75 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.82 | 2.92 | 226 | 75 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 75 |
| Jose Molina L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.23 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 144 | 74 |
| Sean Keselica L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 235 | 74 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2029 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 73 |
| Rob Zastryzny L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.44 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | 4.82 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 142 | +0.38 | 3.26 | 634 | 73 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.43 | 13.9% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 212 | 73 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.41 | 18.9% | 16.3% | 3.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 316 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 16.9% | 12.5% | 1.17 | 5.26 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |