Colby Langford

P Asheville Tourists

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 196 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	21	8	58	5.46	4.24	28.8%	19.3%	—	K 21.6% · BB 22.5% · FIP 5.34
2025	23	A+HOU	42	0	61	3.26	3.99	31.1%	22.5%	—	K 23.9% · BB 25.9% · FIP 4.92
2026	24	MIX2 levels	41	0	57	6.16	5.70	27.3%	17.3%	—	K 20.2% · BB 20.3% · FIP 7.34
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	—	—	0	5.93	5.93	22.3%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBHOU	17	0	18	5.75	5.74	22.8%	18.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBHOU	22	0	23	5.66	5.67	22.8%	18.2%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control20Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSeth Clark (age 24) · Brian Marconi (age 25) · Graeme Stinson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130138vR 146

ERA5.93

FIP5.93

K%22.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%2.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	4	1	5	22	6	4	0	25%	1.3	27.3%	18.2%	9.1%	0.0%	5.06	3.10	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	4	1	5	22	6	4	0	25%	1.3	27.3%	18.2%	9.1%	0.0%	5.06	3.10	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	8	58	264	76	51	5	38%	2.7	21.6%	22.5%	-1.0%	2.2%	5.46	5.34	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	8	58	264	76	51	5	38%	2.7	21.6%	22.5%	-1.0%	2.2%	5.46	5.34	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	8	58	264	76	51	5	38%	2.7	28.8%	19.3%	9.5%	1.9%	5.46	4.24	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	42	0	61	280	87	63	3	0%	1.4	23.9%	25.9%	-1.9%	1.0%	3.26	4.92	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	42	0	61	280	87	63	3	0%	1.4	23.9%	25.9%	-1.9%	1.0%	3.26	4.92	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	42	0	61	280	87	63	3	0%	1.4	31.1%	22.5%	8.6%	1.1%	3.26	3.99	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	278	76	48	12	0%	1.4	20.2%	20.3%	-0.1%	6.1%	6.16	7.34	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	278	76	48	12	0%	1.4	20.2%	20.3%	-0.1%	6.1%	6.16	7.34	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	57	278	76	48	12	0%	1.4	27.3%	17.3%	10.1%	4.3%	6.16	5.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	20.0%	2.3%	3.3%	5.93	5.93	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	41	0	43	181	41	34	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	18.9%	3.9%	3.3%	5.75	5.74	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	35	0	37	155	35	28	5	0%	1.0	22.8%	18.2%	4.6%	3.3%	5.66	5.67	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	17	0	18	76	17	14	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	18.9%	3.9%	3.3%	5.75	5.74	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	22	0	23	97	22	18	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	18.2%	4.6%	3.3%	5.66	5.67	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	175	40	32	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	18.5%	4.3%	3.3%	5.70	5.32	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	154	29	0%	1.1	22.8%	18.5%	4.3%	3.3%	5.70	5.32	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		108	9	181	844	186	192	26	8%	1.7	22.0%	22.8%	-0.7%	3.1%	4.93	5.80	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	10	200	934	206	213	29	8%	1.7	22.0%	22.8%	-0.7%	3.1%	4.93	5.80	-2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 50 IPFIP 5.82 → 7.34 (+1.52)K% 26.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.23%	—	×0.770	20.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.62%	—	×1.150	20.27%
HR / BF /BF	4.92%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.82 → 7.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 7 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.73 (+0.75)K% 35.3% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.29%	—	×0.810	28.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.71%	—	×1.100	16.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 61 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.92 (+1.01)K% 31.1% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.07%	—	×0.770	23.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.50%	—	×1.150	25.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷1.297	×1.250	1.03%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 41 IPFIP 3.79 → 5.07 (+1.28)K% 31.6% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.740	23.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.37%	—	×1.180	19.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷1.118	×1.300	2.72%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.79 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 17 IPFIP 4.83 → 5.85 (+1.03)K% 23.7% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.66%	—	×0.770	18.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.73%	—	×1.150	28.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.073	×1.250	1.25%

Result: FIP 4.83 → 5.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Astros · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.41 (+1.31)K% 27.3% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.680	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×1.250	22.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.379	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colby Langford (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.93	22.3%	20.0%	3.3%	—	5.71	22.8%	4.2%	80	-0.22	—	—	—
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	84
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	84
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	83
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	83
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	83
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	83
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	82
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	80
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	80
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	79
Yoan Aybar L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	20.9%	19.7%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	166	78
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	78
Brendan Cellucci L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	21.2%	14.6%	3.3%	.381	4.21	23.7%	9.6%	137	-0.78	3.98	288	78
Dante Biasi L 2023 · 6.65 FIP	25	SU	6.65	20.1%	18.4%	5.3%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.91	224	78
Matt Mikulski L 2024 · 6.18 FIP	25	SU	6.18	15.3%	17.1%	4.0%	.275	4.98	19.5%	-8.3%	18	-1.20	4.92	223	77
Anderson Polanco L 2018 · 5.95 FIP	25	SW	5.95	19.9%	20.9%	3.4%	.298	5.09	18.9%	2.6%	47	-0.86	4.10	316	77
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	77
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	77
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.82	14.5%	3.2%	142	-0.92	3.41	239	75
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	22.6%	19.2%	1.27	5.80
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*