Jeremy Pilon — OGILVIE

Jeremy Pilon P FCL Rays

Age 20 LHP 6'0" / 200 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%21.5%

BB%19.0%

K-BB%2.5%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	61	261	83	46	3	75%	3.8	22.1%	21.7%	0.5%	1.6%	3.26	4.86	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	61	261	83	46	3	75%	3.8	22.1%	21.7%	0.5%	1.6%	3.26	4.86	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	61	261	83	46	3	75%	3.8	31.8%	17.6%	14.2%	1.1%	3.26	3.28	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	28	126	29	19	1	100%	3.5	15.2%	20.1%	-4.9%	0.0%	4.45	4.36	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	28	126	29	19	1	100%	3.5	15.2%	20.1%	-4.9%	0.0%	4.45	4.36	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	28	126	29	19	1	100%	3.5	23.0%	15.1%	7.9%	0.8%	4.45	3.52	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	17	7	58	261	72	42	0	41%	3.4	19.1%	19.7%	-0.7%	0.0%	4.06	3.99	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	17	7	58	261	72	42	0	41%	3.4	19.1%	19.7%	-0.7%	0.0%	4.06	3.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	TB	12	7	49	211	59	28	0	58%	4.1	28.0%	13.3%	14.7%	0.0%	2.96	2.42	—
2026	20	A RAW	TB	5	0	9	50	13	14	0	0%	1.8	26.0%	28.0%	-2.0%	0.0%	10.00	4.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	59	250	55	40	7	100%	5.9	22.1%	16.1%	6.0%	2.8%	5.31	5.19	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	62	263	61	37	7	100%	5.7	23.1%	13.9%	9.2%	2.7%	4.98	4.80	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	65	273	65	34	7	100%	5.9	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.70	4.54	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	66	280	68	32	8	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.49	4.35	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	67	283	70	30	8	100%	6.1	24.7%	10.8%	14.0%	2.7%	4.33	4.23	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	67	283	71	30	8	100%	6.1	24.9%	10.7%	14.2%	2.7%	4.25	4.20	+0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	66	279	69	30	8	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	2.7%	4.25	4.24	+0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	64	270	67	30	8	100%	5.8	24.8%	11.0%	13.8%	2.8%	4.30	4.33	+0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	TB	5	5	29	122	27	20	4	100%	5.8	22.1%	16.1%	6.0%	2.9%	5.36	5.24	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	45	190	44	26	5	100%	5.6	23.1%	13.9%	9.2%	2.8%	5.03	4.85	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	54	228	54	28	6	100%	6.0	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.74	4.58	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	59	249	61	28	7	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.4%	12.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.39	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	61	258	64	28	7	100%	6.1	24.7%	10.8%	14.0%	2.8%	4.37	4.27	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	62	262	65	28	7	100%	6.2	24.9%	10.7%	14.2%	2.8%	4.29	4.24	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	63	266	66	29	7	100%	6.3	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	2.8%	4.29	4.28	+0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	61	258	64	28	8	100%	6.1	24.8%	11.0%	13.8%	2.9%	4.35	4.38	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	435	1839	447	217	52	100%	5.9	24.3%	11.8%	12.5%	2.8%	4.55	4.08	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	205	100	24	100%	5.9	24.3%	11.8%	12.5%	2.8%	4.55	4.08	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		41	27	147	648	127	133	4	66%	3.6	19.5%	20.6%	-1.0%	0.6%	3.80	4.41	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	37	200	884	173	182	6	66%	3.6	19.5%	20.6%	-1.0%	0.6%	3.80	4.41	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeremy Pilon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	21.5%	19.0%	2.8%	—	4.83	23.0%	8.9%	186	-0.80	—	—	—
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	74
Manuel Osorio L 2023 · 4.83 FIP	17	SP-	4.83	15.5%	17.7%	1.4%	.276	4.91	16.8%	-0.2%	130	+0.08	3.90	168	73
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	73
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	73
Carlos Meza L 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP-	5.03	15.5%	12.2%	3.1%	.325	4.67	20.6%	4.4%	138	-0.36	3.72	229	73
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	71
Brayan Restituyo L 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.397	4.46	18.4%	6.3%	144	-0.35	3.66	239	71
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	71
Carlos Velez L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	20	SW	4.56	16.3%	19.4%	0.7%	.283	3.91	17.8%	2.3%	35	-0.65	3.91	133	71
Luis Cesar L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	19	SP-	5.28	14.8%	20.6%	1.5%	.351	5.77	14.3%	-8.1%	91	+0.49	4.84	131	71
Luis Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.75 FIP	20	SW	4.75	14.7%	15.8%	1.6%	.374	4.08	16.2%	7.4%	210	-0.67	3.26	296	70
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	70
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	70
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	69
Cooper Hjerpe L 2023 · 6.23 FIP	22	SP-	6.23	23.0%	16.8%	5.3%	.207	3.77	28.5%	11.7%	86	-2.46	3.61	127	69
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	69
Gregory Reinoso L 2016 · 5.11 FIP	20	SP-	5.11	12.3%	15.6%	1.9%	.299	6.70	11.3%	-7.8%	29	+1.59	4.18	105	69
Salvador Montano L 2015 · 5.23 FIP	21	SP-	5.23	11.5%	15.9%	2.0%	.301	4.65	21.3%	-0.0%	71	-0.58	4.44	116	68
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	60	24.0%	12.4%	1.06	4.61
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10