Jeremy Pilon

P FCL Rays

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 200 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1249ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	16	12	61	3.26	3.28	31.8%	17.6%	—	K 22.1% · BB 21.7% · FIP 4.86
2025	19	MIX2 levels	8	8	28	4.45	3.52	23.0%	15.1%	—	K 15.2% · BB 20.1% · FIP 4.36
2026	20	MIX2 levels	17	7	58	4.06	2.79	27.6%	16.1%	—	K 19.1% · BB 19.7% · FIP 3.99
2027PROJ	21	MLBTB	—	—	0	5.59	5.59	20.7%	18.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTB	4	4	21	5.20	5.05	21.9%	15.7%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBTB	5	5	31	4.88	4.71	22.7%	13.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsLuichi Casilla (age 19) · Colby Langford (age 22) · Bryce Hubbart (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%20.7%

BB%18.8%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	61	261	83	46	3	75%	3.8	22.1%	21.7%	0.5%	1.6%	3.26	4.86	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	61	261	83	46	3	75%	3.8	22.1%	21.7%	0.5%	1.6%	3.26	4.86	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	61	261	83	46	3	75%	3.8	31.8%	17.6%	14.2%	1.1%	3.26	3.28	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	28	126	29	19	1	100%	3.5	15.2%	20.1%	-4.9%	0.0%	4.45	4.36	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	28	126	29	19	1	100%	3.5	15.2%	20.1%	-4.9%	0.0%	4.45	4.36	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	28	126	29	19	1	100%	3.5	23.0%	15.1%	7.9%	0.8%	4.45	3.52	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	7	58	261	72	42	0	41%	3.4	19.1%	19.7%	-0.7%	0.0%	4.06	3.99	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	7	58	261	72	42	0	41%	3.4	19.1%	19.7%	-0.7%	0.0%	4.06	3.99	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	7	58	261	72	42	0	41%	3.4	27.6%	16.1%	11.5%	0.0%	4.06	2.79	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.7%	18.8%	1.9%	2.7%	5.59	5.59	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	43	181	40	28	5	100%	6.1	21.9%	15.7%	6.1%	2.7%	5.24	5.09	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	43	181	41	25	5	100%	6.1	22.7%	13.7%	9.0%	2.6%	4.92	4.75	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	43	181	42	22	5	100%	6.1	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	2.6%	4.68	4.53	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	42	177	42	20	5	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	2.6%	4.50	4.38	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	42	178	43	20	5	100%	6.0	23.9%	11.5%	12.4%	2.6%	4.41	4.36	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	41	174	41	20	5	100%	5.9	23.9%	11.5%	12.3%	2.7%	4.40	4.40	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	21	89	19	14	2	100%	5.2	21.9%	15.7%	6.1%	2.6%	5.20	5.05	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	5	5	31	131	30	18	3	100%	6.2	22.7%	13.7%	9.0%	2.6%	4.88	4.71	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	35	148	34	18	4	100%	5.8	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	2.6%	4.64	4.49	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	37	156	37	18	4	100%	6.2	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	2.6%	4.46	4.34	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	39	165	39	19	4	100%	6.5	23.9%	11.5%	12.4%	2.6%	4.37	4.32	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	38	160	38	18	4	100%	6.3	23.9%	11.5%	12.3%	2.6%	4.36	4.36	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	201	850	198	106	22	100%	5.9	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	2.6%	4.60	4.12	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	197	105	22	100%	5.9	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	2.6%	4.60	4.12	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		41	27	147	648	127	133	4	66%	3.6	19.5%	20.6%	-1.0%	0.6%	3.80	4.41	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	37	200	884	173	182	6	66%	3.6	19.5%	20.6%	-1.0%	0.6%	3.80	4.41	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Rays · 49 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.60 (+1.18)K% 28.0% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.96%	—	×0.680	19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.27%	—	×1.250	16.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 9 IPFIP 4.45 → 5.66 (+1.21)K% 26.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.00%	—	×0.740	19.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.00%	—	×1.180	33.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.45 → 5.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Rays · 25 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.36 (+1.11)K% 22.3% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.32%	—	×0.680	15.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.07%	—	×1.250	20.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.809	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Rays · 47 IPFIP 3.38 → 5.04 (+1.67)K% 30.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.65%	—	×0.680	20.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.08%	—	×1.250	20.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷1.002	×1.400	2.11%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 14 IPFIP 2.96 → 4.26 (+1.29)K% 35.5% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.48%	—	×0.740	26.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.58%	—	×1.180	26.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.824	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.96 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeremy Pilon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	20.7%	18.8%	2.7%	—	4.79	22.6%	8.7%	128	-0.80	—	—	—
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	79
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	78
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	78
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	78
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.5%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	77
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	76
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	76
Gabriel Cotto L 2021 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP-	5.09	19.8%	17.8%	2.6%	.307	5.21	15.5%	1.4%	155	+0.12	5.02	236	76
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	76
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Christian Oppor L 2024 · 4.57 FIP	20	SP-	4.57	18.4%	20.6%	0.8%	.389	4.94	21.1%	0.8%	123	+0.37	3.96	161	75
Julio Robaina L 2022 · 5.55 FIP	21	SP-	5.55	17.4%	16.9%	3.2%	.347	4.04	18.2%	8.7%	178	-1.51	2.72	453	75
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	74
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	73
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	73
Esmerlin Vinicio L 2024 · 4.81 FIP	21	SW	4.81	16.2%	16.8%	1.7%	.261	4.29	19.5%	3.3%	113	-0.52	3.73	383	73
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	73
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	72
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	72
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	41	22.9%	13.4%	1.03	4.80
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*