Christian Oppor

P Birmingham Barons

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2032

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#965ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKCWS	12	9	38	5.21	3.23	27.1%	16.5%	—	K 18.4% · BB 20.6% · FIP 4.57
2025	21	MIX2 levels	22	22	88	3.08	2.78	31.7%	11.5%	—	K 24.1% · BB 13.3% · FIP 3.96
2026	22	MIX3 levels	23	13	38	12.68	8.47	17.7%	35.9%	—	K 13.8% · BB 37.5% · FIP 7.34
2027PROJ	23	MLBCWS	1	1	2	5.90	5.90	19.1%	20.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBCWS	7	7	39	5.53	5.38	20.9%	16.8%	0.0
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBCWS	10	10	61	5.20	5.03	21.9%	14.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsNate Savino (age 22) · Adam Laskey (age 23) · Garrett Williams (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 145

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%19.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	5	1	8	30	9	2	0	20%	1.5	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.41	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	5	1	8	30	9	2	0	20%	1.5	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.53	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	12	9	38	170	46	28	1	75%	3.2	18.4%	20.6%	-2.2%	0.8%	5.21	4.57	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	12	9	38	170	46	28	1	75%	3.2	18.4%	20.6%	-2.2%	0.8%	5.21	4.57	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	12	9	38	170	46	28	1	75%	3.2	27.1%	16.5%	10.6%	0.6%	5.21	3.23	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	88	366	116	42	6	100%	4.0	24.1%	13.3%	10.9%	2.2%	3.08	3.96	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	88	366	116	42	6	100%	4.0	24.1%	13.3%	10.9%	2.2%	3.08	3.96	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	88	366	116	42	6	100%	4.0	31.7%	11.5%	20.2%	1.6%	3.08	2.78	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	38	231	41	83	3	57%	1.7	13.8%	37.5%	-23.7%	1.2%	12.68	7.34	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	38	231	41	83	3	57%	1.7	13.8%	37.5%	-23.7%	1.2%	12.68	7.34	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	13	38	231	41	83	3	57%	1.7	17.7%	35.9%	-18.2%	1.3%	12.68	8.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CWS	1	1	2	8	2	2	0	100%	2.0	19.1%	20.0%	-0.9%	2.7%	5.90	5.90	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	90	380	79	64	10	100%	5.6	20.9%	16.8%	4.0%	2.7%	5.50	5.35	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	91	385	84	57	11	100%	5.7	21.9%	14.8%	7.1%	2.7%	5.17	5.00	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	96	406	91	58	11	100%	6.0	22.5%	14.4%	8.1%	2.8%	5.00	4.91	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	93	392	88	56	11	100%	6.2	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	2.8%	4.95	4.93	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	88	372	83	54	11	100%	5.9	22.4%	14.4%	7.9%	2.9%	4.99	5.02	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	82	347	77	51	11	100%	5.9	22.1%	14.7%	7.4%	3.1%	5.09	5.15	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	75	317	69	47	10	100%	5.8	21.8%	15.0%	6.8%	3.3%	5.23	5.33	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	39	165	34	28	5	100%	5.6	20.9%	16.8%	4.0%	2.8%	5.53	5.38	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	61	258	56	38	7	100%	6.1	21.9%	14.8%	7.1%	2.8%	5.20	5.03	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	76	321	72	46	9	100%	5.8	22.5%	14.4%	8.1%	2.8%	5.03	4.94	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	79	334	75	48	10	100%	6.1	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.98	4.96	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	79	334	75	48	10	100%	6.1	22.4%	14.4%	7.9%	3.0%	5.02	5.05	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	75	317	70	46	10	100%	6.2	22.1%	14.7%	7.4%	3.1%	5.12	5.18	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	69	291	63	44	10	100%	5.8	21.8%	15.0%	6.8%	3.3%	5.26	5.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	81	479	2021	447	298	60	100%	5.9	22.1%	14.8%	7.3%	3.0%	5.13	4.73	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	124	25	100%	5.9	22.1%	14.8%	7.3%	3.0%	5.13	4.73	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		62	45	172	797	161	172	12	73%	2.8	20.1%	21.6%	-1.5%	1.5%	5.61	4.98	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	52	200	929	187	201	14	73%	2.8	20.1%	21.6%	-1.5%	1.5%	5.61	4.98	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 25 IPFIP 6.31 → 7.06 (+0.75)K% 14.0% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.95%	—	×0.810	11.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	27.91%	—	×1.100	30.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.31 → 7.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL White Sox · 11 IPFIP 5.87 → 7.87 (+2.00)K% 27.1% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.14%	—	×0.680	18.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	40.00%	—	×1.250	50.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.87 → 7.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 3 IPFIP 11.28 → 13.08 (+1.80)K% 12.5% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.770	9.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	59.38%	—	×1.150	68.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 11.28 → 13.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 65 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.61 (+1.22)K% 29.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.29%	—	×0.770	22.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.150	14.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷0.923	×1.250	2.90%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 22 IPFIP 0.79 → 1.85 (+1.05)K% 39.5% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.53%	—	×0.740	29.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.14%	—	×1.180	9.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.853	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 0.79 → 1.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL White Sox · 38 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.57 (+1.35)K% 27.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.680	18.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.47%	—	×1.250	20.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.59%	÷1.076	×1.400	0.77%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL White Sox · 8 IPFIP 1.41 → 2.43 (+1.02)K% 30.0% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.680	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.250	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷2.194	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.41 → 2.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Oppor (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	5.08	21.8%	6.5%	277	-0.82	—	—	—
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	77
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	75
Garrett Williams L 2018 · 5.04 FIP	23	SW	5.04	14.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.335	4.33	19.3%	4.5%	162	-0.71	3.37	470	75
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	74
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	74
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	21	SP-	5.99	13.6%	16.7%	3.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	128	72
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	71
Jhordany Mezquita L 2021 · 5.16 FIP	23	SP-	5.16	17.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.321	5.10	22.4%	14.0%	14	-0.06	3.02	223	71
Joel Valdez L 2023 · 5.73 FIP	23	SP-	5.73	17.1%	17.4%	3.4%	.266	3.42	22.0%	10.1%	116	-2.31	2.84	324	70
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	70
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	69
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	69
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	69
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	69
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	68
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	68
Nathan Kirby L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	17.7%	16.2%	2.7%	.318	3.84	25.3%	8.7%	38	-1.28	3.84	145	68
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	68
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	66
Develson Aria L 2023 · 6.47 FIP	22	SW	6.47	16.7%	28.6%	2.1%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	137	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	88	21.6%	15.6%	1.11	5.23
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
John D'Acquisto ('73-'82, -3 WAR*)	3.9	97	25.1%*	15.1%*	0.92*	5.36*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*