Christian Oppor
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.7
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 2.1 · 2030
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%12.0%
IP88
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.1peak
2030
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 5 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.17 | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 12 | 9 | 38 | 170 | 46 | 28 | 1 | 18.4% | 20.6% | 0.7% | 5.21 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 22 | 22 | 88 | 366 | 116 | 42 | 6 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 2.2% | 3.08 | 3.93 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 2 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 3 | 9 | 1 | — | — | — | 15.43 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 86 | 42 | 10 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 92 | 400 | 89 | 51 | 11 | 22.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 4.26 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 111 | 469 | 112 | 48 | 13 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 133 | 52 | 15 | 24.3% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.16 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 149 | 55 | 17 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.08 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 27 | 27 | 150 | 635 | 157 | 58 | 18 | 24.7% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 28 | 28 | 153 | 647 | 160 | 59 | 18 | 24.8% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +2.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 28 | 28 | 153 | 646 | 160 | 59 | 18 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +2.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 27 | 27 | 150 | 632 | 155 | 58 | 18 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +2.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 149 | 57 | 18 | 24.4% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +1.8 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 143 | 56 | 18 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.29 | +1.6 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 134 | 567 | 135 | 55 | 17 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 128 | 53 | 17 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.47 | +1.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 119 | 51 | 17 | 23.2% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 111 | 50 | 16 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 41 | 34 | 138 | 596 | 132 | 95 | 10 | 22.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | 3.98 | 4.18 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 49 | 200 | 864 | 191 | 138 | 14 | 22.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | 3.98 | 4.18 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Oppor (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.17 | 24.3% | 14.7% | 384 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Will Johnston L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 95 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 93 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 90 |
| A.J. Block L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 88 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 88 |
| Connelly Early L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.34 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .292 | 2.66 | 27.5% | 17.6% | 139 | -0.68 | 2.56 | 243 | 87 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 86 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 86 |
| Brandon Finnegan L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.50 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .287 | 5.02 | 18.5% | 6.5% | 273 | +0.52 | 3.85 | 489 | 85 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .279 | 4.19 | 24.1% | 14.1% | 271 | +0.15 | 3.49 | 432 | 85 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 85 |
| Greg Farone L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 85 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 85 |
| Andrew Abbott L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.36 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.86 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 468 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 606 | 84 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.36 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .206 | 4.44 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.08 | 4.35 | 193 | 84 |
| Brian Holmes L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 84 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 83 |
| Pete Hansen L 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 83 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.08 | 4.01 | 212 | 83 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .357 | 3.74 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.21 | 3.01 | 453 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.7 | $14M | +$14M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.0 | $17M | +$17M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.1 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $4M | +2.1 | $19M | +$15M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +2.1 | $20M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +2.0 | $20M | +$10M |
| Totals | $24M | $110M | +$86M | ||