Christian Oppor — OGILVIE

Christian Oppor P Birmingham Barons

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 125

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%24.8%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4545

CMD3045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$8M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+1.2	$7M	+$2M
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$30M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	5	1	8	30	9	2	0	20%	1.5	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.41	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	5	1	8	30	9	2	0	20%	1.5	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.41	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	5	1	8	30	9	2	0	20%	1.5	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	0.0%	1.17	1.53	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	12	9	38	170	46	28	1	75%	3.2	18.4%	20.6%	-2.2%	0.8%	5.21	4.57	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	12	9	38	170	46	28	1	75%	3.2	18.4%	20.6%	-2.2%	0.8%	5.21	4.57	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	12	9	38	170	46	28	1	75%	3.2	27.1%	16.5%	10.6%	0.6%	5.21	3.23	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	88	366	116	42	6	100%	4.0	24.1%	13.3%	10.9%	2.2%	3.08	3.96	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	88	366	116	42	6	100%	4.0	24.1%	13.3%	10.9%	2.2%	3.08	3.96	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	88	366	116	42	6	100%	4.0	31.7%	11.5%	20.2%	1.6%	3.08	2.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	23	13	38	231	41	83	3	57%	1.7	13.8%	37.5%	-23.7%	1.2%	12.68	7.34	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	23	13	38	231	41	83	3	57%	1.7	13.8%	37.5%	-23.7%	1.2%	12.68	7.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	CWS	8	5	11	70	19	28	0	62%	1.4	27.1%	40.0%	-12.9%	0.0%	10.64	5.87	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CWS	7	0	3	32	4	19	1	0%	0.4	12.5%	59.4%	-46.9%	3.1%	50.62	11.28	—
2026	22	AA RAW	CWS	8	8	25	129	18	36	2	100%	3.1	14.0%	27.9%	-14.0%	1.6%	9.49	6.31	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	CWS	1	1	8	34	9	5	1	100%	8.2	24.8%	14.9%	9.9%	2.8%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	46	265	50	88	4	—	—	18.7%	33.2%	-14.5%	1.5%	11.30	6.90	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	127	538	136	70	15	100%	5.5	25.3%	13.0%	12.3%	2.8%	4.62	4.52	+0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	28	28	157	661	169	78	18	100%	5.6	25.6%	11.8%	13.9%	2.8%	4.44	4.34	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	30	30	175	739	191	81	21	100%	5.8	25.8%	11.0%	14.8%	2.8%	4.31	4.22	+1.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	29	29	175	739	192	80	21	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.9%	15.0%	2.8%	4.24	4.20	+1.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	29	29	172	728	189	80	21	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.9%	15.0%	2.8%	4.24	4.24	+1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	28	28	167	706	182	78	21	100%	6.0	25.8%	11.1%	14.7%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	27	27	160	674	172	76	21	100%	5.9	25.6%	11.3%	14.2%	3.1%	4.39	4.45	+0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	150	634	160	74	21	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.6%	13.6%	3.3%	4.53	4.63	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	140	591	147	71	21	100%	6.1	24.8%	12.0%	12.8%	3.5%	4.71	4.83	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	130	547	133	68	21	100%	5.9	24.3%	12.4%	12.0%	3.8%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
2037	33	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	119	502	120	64	20	100%	5.9	23.8%	12.8%	11.0%	4.0%	5.15	5.31	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	64	270	68	35	8	100%	5.3	25.3%	13.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.65	4.55	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	110	464	119	55	13	100%	5.5	25.6%	11.8%	13.9%	2.8%	4.47	4.37	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	142	600	155	66	17	100%	5.9	25.8%	11.0%	14.8%	2.8%	4.34	4.25	+1.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	26	26	153	646	167	70	18	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.9%	15.0%	2.8%	4.27	4.23	+1.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	26	26	156	659	171	72	19	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.27	4.27	+1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	26	26	154	650	168	72	19	100%	5.9	25.8%	11.1%	14.7%	3.0%	4.32	4.35	+1.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	25	25	149	629	161	71	20	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.2%	3.1%	4.42	4.48	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	141	595	150	69	20	100%	5.9	25.2%	11.6%	13.6%	3.3%	4.56	4.66	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	133	562	139	67	20	100%	6.0	24.8%	12.0%	12.8%	3.6%	4.74	4.86	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	123	519	126	64	20	100%	6.2	24.3%	12.4%	12.0%	3.8%	4.96	5.10	-0.2
2037	33	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	113	477	114	61	20	100%	5.9	23.8%	12.8%	11.0%	4.1%	5.19	5.35	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		243	243	1438	6071	1538	703	194	100%	5.9	25.3%	11.6%	13.7%	3.2%	4.53	4.18	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	214	98	27	100%	5.9	25.3%	11.6%	13.7%	3.2%	4.53	4.18	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		62	45	172	797	161	172	12	73%	2.8	20.1%	21.6%	-1.5%	1.5%	5.61	4.98	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	52	200	929	187	201	14	73%	2.8	20.1%	21.6%	-1.5%	1.5%	5.61	4.98	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Oppor (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	24.8%	14.9%	2.8%	—	4.34	25.6%	13.8%	459	-0.48	—	—	—
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	83
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.24	24.9%	6.8%	152	-0.42	2.97	282	80
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	79
Brandon Finnegan L 2015 · 4.48 FIP	22	SW	4.48	21.3%	12.8%	2.8%	.287	5.01	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.53	3.86	489	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	79
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	78
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	76
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	76
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	75
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	74
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	74
Parker Mushinski L 2018 · 3.73 FIP	22	SW	3.73	22.3%	13.7%	1.4%	.269	3.53	23.3%	14.7%	118	-0.20	3.11	455	74
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	73
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	72
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	72
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	71
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	70
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	70
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	70
Travis Ott L 2017 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	20.9%	12.3%	1.7%	.253	3.67	24.7%	14.4%	70	-0.15	3.67	188	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.8	147	25.3%	11.8%	1.20	4.51
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45