Christian Oppor
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 22
LHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.1 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107117vR 126
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%24.8%
BB%13.8%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 5 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 20% | 1.5 | 30.0% | 6.7% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 1.41 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 5 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 20% | 1.5 | 30.0% | 6.7% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 1.53 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 12 | 9 | 38 | 170 | 46 | 28 | 1 | 75% | 3.2 | 18.4% | 20.6% | -2.2% | 0.7% | 5.21 | 4.55 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 12 | 9 | 38 | 170 | 46 | 28 | 1 | 75% | 3.2 | 27.1% | 16.5% | 10.6% | 0.6% | 5.21 | 3.23 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 88 | 366 | 116 | 42 | 6 | 100% | 4.0 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 2.4% | 3.08 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 88 | 366 | 116 | 42 | 6 | 100% | 4.0 | 31.7% | 11.5% | 20.2% | 1.6% | 3.08 | 2.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 16 | 13 | 36 | 199 | 37 | 64 | 2 | 81% | 2.2 | 13.8% | 37.5% | -23.7% | 1.2% | 9.84 | 7.34 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.8% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 100 | 473 | 105 | 102 | 10 | — | — | 22.2% | 21.5% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 6.54 | 5.65 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 24.8% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 127 | 538 | 136 | 66 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.3% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 28 | 28 | 157 | 661 | 169 | 74 | 19 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.6% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.28 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 30 | 30 | 175 | 739 | 191 | 78 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 10.5% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.18 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 192 | 77 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 189 | 77 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 28 | 28 | 167 | 706 | 182 | 75 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.8% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +2.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 27 | 27 | 160 | 674 | 172 | 73 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.6% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.42 | +1.8 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 25 | 150 | 634 | 160 | 71 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.59 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 147 | 68 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.8% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.80 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 68 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.3% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 119 | 52 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.6% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.31 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 155 | 63 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 10.5% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.21 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 26 | 26 | 153 | 646 | 167 | 67 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 171 | 69 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +2.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 168 | 69 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +1.9 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 161 | 69 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 150 | 67 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.62 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 139 | 65 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.83 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 204 | 204 | 1203 | 5080 | 1299 | 554 | 156 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.6% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.01 | +19.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 216 | 92 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.6% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 45 | 169 | 765 | 156 | 160 | 12 | 82% | 3.1 | 20.4% | 20.9% | -0.5% | 1.6% | 4.90 | 4.92 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 53 | 200 | 905 | 185 | 189 | 15 | 82% | 3.1 | 20.4% | 20.9% | -0.5% | 1.6% | 4.90 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Oppor (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 24.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.29 | 25.6% | 14.4% | 459 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 83 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 1.4% | .335 | 3.81 | 18.5% | 11.0% | 84 | +0.01 | 3.80 | 152 | 82 |
| Mason Molina L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.28 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.56 | 23.3% | 13.3% | 69 | -0.72 | 3.56 | 165 | 82 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 82 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 82 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 82 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.22 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.37 | 4.00 | 170 | 79 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 79 |
| Evan Lee L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 78 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.68 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 108 | -1.49 | 1.94 | 191 | 77 |
| Dalton Rogers L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.40 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 2.4% | .327 | 4.20 | 19.8% | 4.6% | 230 | -0.20 | 3.42 | 326 | 77 |
| Trenton Wallace L 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.67 | 25.8% | 15.8% | 1.3% | .224 | 4.69 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 206 | +1.02 | 2.75 | 286 | 77 |
| Johnny King L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.22 | 23.7% | 15.4% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 129 | 76 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 76 |
| Caden Grice L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.23 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 5.28 | 17.3% | 1.8% | 55 | +1.05 | 4.23 | 105 | 76 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 76 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 76 |
| Bailey Horn L 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 76 |
| A.J. Block L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 75 |
| Travis Ott L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .253 | 3.69 | 24.7% | 14.4% | 70 | -0.21 | 3.69 | 188 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 151 | 25.5% | 11.1% | 1.16 | 4.38 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |