Develson Aria
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%12.8%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | 17 | 1 | 36 | 171 | 39 | 27 | 2 | 15.5% | 19.7% | 1.6% | 5.25 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 13 | 6 | 26 | 112 | 39 | 23 | 0 | 23.7% | 25.7% | 0.0% | 3.16 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 13 | 7 | 32 | 144 | 43 | 15 | 3 | 19.9% | 12.2% | 2.0% | 4.83 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 25 | 12 | 47 | 252 | 57 | 61 | 4 | 16.7% | 28.6% | 2.1% | 9.45 | 6.46 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 23.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 23.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 26 | 140 | 679 | 124 | 152 | 11 | 18.3% | 22.4% | 1.6% | 6.17 | 5.29 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 97 | 37 | 200 | 970 | 177 | 217 | 16 | 18.3% | 22.4% | 1.6% | 6.17 | 5.29 | +0.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Develson Aria (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.45 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 118 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 87 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 87 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .341 | 8.17 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.12 | 3.97 | 158 | 85 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 85 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 84 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .331 | 3.71 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.42 | 3.12 | 310 | 83 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 83 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 83 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 83 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .338 | 3.49 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.22 | 1.78 | 560 | 82 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 82 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 82 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 82 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .303 | 4.47 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.77 | 3.70 | 229 | 82 |
| Jake Miednik L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.93 | 23.7% | 11.7% | 4.3% | .308 | 6.03 | 10.5% | -4.1% | 32 | +1.10 | 1.55 | 126 | 81 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 81 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 81 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | .382 | 3.51 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.61 | 2.88 | 206 | 81 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.65 | 3.93 | 264 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.