Develson Aria
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
A
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%23.1%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | 17 | 1 | 36 | 171 | 39 | 27 | 2 | 6% | 2.1 | 15.5% | 19.7% | -4.2% | 1.6% | 5.25 | 5.19 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | 17 | 1 | 36 | 171 | 39 | 27 | 2 | 6% | 2.1 | 22.8% | 15.8% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 5.25 | 3.91 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 13 | 6 | 26 | 112 | 39 | 23 | 0 | 46% | 2.0 | 23.7% | 25.7% | -2.0% | 0.0% | 3.16 | 4.35 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 13 | 6 | 26 | 112 | 39 | 23 | 0 | 46% | 2.0 | 34.8% | 20.5% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 3.16 | 2.75 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 7 | 32 | 144 | 43 | 15 | 3 | 54% | 2.4 | 19.9% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 4.83 | 4.07 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 7 | 32 | 144 | 43 | 15 | 3 | 54% | 2.4 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 19.4% | 2.1% | 4.83 | 3.04 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 25 | 12 | 47 | 252 | 57 | 61 | 4 | 48% | 1.9 | 16.7% | 28.6% | -11.8% | 2.2% | 9.45 | 6.50 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 25 | 12 | 47 | 252 | 57 | 61 | 4 | 48% | 1.9 | 22.6% | 24.2% | -1.6% | 1.6% | 9.45 | 5.69 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.06 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 202 | 84 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 26 | 140 | 679 | 124 | 152 | 11 | 38% | 2.1 | 18.3% | 22.4% | -4.1% | 1.6% | 6.17 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 97 | 37 | 200 | 970 | 177 | 217 | 16 | 38% | 2.1 | 18.3% | 22.4% | -4.1% | 1.6% | 6.17 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Develson Aria (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.44 | 23.3% | 13.1% | 28 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 79 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 75 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 74 |
| Parker Mushinski L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .357 | 4.17 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 143 | +0.67 | 3.21 | 439 | 74 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.91 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 2.2% | .237 | 5.18 | 19.7% | 3.3% | 81 | +1.27 | 3.91 | 151 | 73 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .338 | 3.46 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.54 | 1.78 | 560 | 73 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 73 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 72 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 71 |
| Braulio Lara L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 71 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.99 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 3.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 196 | 71 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 71 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 70 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.01 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .292 | 4.17 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 109 | +0.16 | 3.91 | 383 | 70 |
| Kyle Bird L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 2.3% | .250 | 5.55 | 20.6% | 6.3% | 47 | +1.82 | 2.68 | 379 | 70 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 69 |
| Bryan Warzek L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.98 | 22.1% | 15.0% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 138 | 69 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .326 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.15 | 0.84 | 577 | 69 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 25.3% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .284 | 5.07 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 42 | +0.50 | 3.33 | 152 | 68 |
| Caleb Smith L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.30 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 1.7% | .335 | 4.17 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 347 | +0.87 | 3.30 | 784 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 1.15 | 4.46 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |