Larson Kindreich
P
Frisco RoughRiders
+0.1
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.8%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4545
CMD5050
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 18 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.12 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 18 | 12 | 65 | 282 | 91 | 45 | 4 | 24.3% | 18.6% | 1.5% | 3.62 | 4.23 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 30 | 13 | 70 | 312 | 87 | 51 | 7 | 21.5% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 25 | 0 | 30 | 134 | 42 | 25 | 1 | 24.4% | 20.4% | 1.0% | 3.03 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 42 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 78 | 28 | 8 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 4.5% | 3.69 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 44 | 22 | 6 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 43 | 21 | 6 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 37 | 19 | 6 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 21.9% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 33 | 18 | 6 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 5.18 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 28 | 17 | 5 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 5.31 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 25 | 236 | 1029 | 246 | 169 | 27 | 23.9% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 21 | 200 | 873 | 209 | 143 | 23 | 23.9% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 4.59 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Larson Kindreich (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.75 | 22.8% | 11.6% | 133 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 82 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 81 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 80 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.09 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.75 | 3.09 | 145 | 80 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 80 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 80 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 79 |
| David Rollins L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.50 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 4.3% | .260 | 5.70 | 15.9% | 12.5% | 20 | +0.20 | 3.60 | 132 | 79 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 3.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 229 | 79 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 79 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 78 |
| Jake Rice L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.73 | 21.8% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .273 | 6.14 | 16.9% | -1.3% | 54 | +2.41 | 3.14 | 199 | 78 |
| Jeff Belge L 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 175 | 78 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 141 | 77 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.12 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .285 | 6.29 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.17 | 3.36 | 144 | 77 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 77 |
| Reagan Todd L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 122 | 77 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 265 | 77 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .336 | 3.58 | 25.2% | 16.4% | 44 | -0.49 | 1.84 | 238 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.