Larson Kindreich

Larson Kindreich P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%22.6%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	6	0	8	33	18	3	0	0%	1.3	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	1.12	-0.35	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	6	0	8	33	18	3	0	0%	1.3	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	1.12	-0.27	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	65	282	91	45	4	67%	3.6	24.3%	18.6%	5.7%	1.6%	3.62	4.27	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	12	65	282	91	45	4	67%	3.6	32.3%	16.0%	16.3%	1.4%	3.62	3.18	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	30	13	70	312	87	51	7	43%	2.3	21.5%	18.8%	2.7%	3.0%	5.14	5.29	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	30	13	70	312	87	51	7	43%	2.3	21.5%	18.8%	2.7%	3.0%	5.14	5.29	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	30	13	70	312	87	51	7	43%	2.3	27.9%	16.3%	11.5%	2.2%	5.14	4.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	30	134	42	25	1	0%	1.2	24.4%	20.4%	4.0%	1.0%	3.03	4.16	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	30	134	42	25	1	0%	1.2	24.4%	20.4%	4.0%	1.0%	3.03	4.16	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	30	134	42	25	1	0%	1.2	31.3%	18.7%	12.7%	0.7%	3.03	3.23	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	63	268	78	28	8	0%	1.5	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	4.4%	3.69	4.96	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	63	268	78	28	8	0%	1.5	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	4.4%	3.69	4.96	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	63	268	78	28	8	0%	1.5	29.1%	10.4%	18.7%	3.0%	3.69	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TEX	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.3%	9.3%	3.2%	5.01	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	65	0	68	287	65	37	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	13.1%	9.5%	3.3%	4.99	5.02	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	62	0	65	274	61	36	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.0%	9.4%	3.4%	5.04	5.10	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	25	0	26	110	25	14	4	0%	1.0	22.5%	13.1%	9.5%	3.3%	4.99	5.02	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	34	0	36	152	34	20	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	13.0%	9.4%	3.4%	5.04	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	58	34	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.0%	9.4%	3.3%	5.02	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	110	29	0%	1.1	22.4%	13.0%	9.4%	3.3%	5.02	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		121	25	236	1029	246	169	27	21%	1.9	23.9%	16.4%	7.4%	2.6%	3.93	4.60	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	21	200	873	208	144	23	21%	1.9	23.9%	16.4%	7.4%	2.6%	3.93	4.60	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Larson Kindreich (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	22.6%	13.3%	3.2%	—	5.06	22.5%	9.4%	133	+0.05	—	—	—
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	83
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	82
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	80
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	80
Andy Oliver L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	23.4%	16.9%	1.6%	.283	4.56	19.2%	8.6%	108	+0.40	3.93	165	78
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	78
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	78
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	77
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	77
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	76
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	76
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	76
Josh D. Smith L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	20.5%	12.6%	2.0%	.306	3.38	23.1%	12.3%	164	-0.67	3.17	335	75
Tony Cingrani L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	18.1%	13.3%	1.7%	.271	3.50	32.4%	26.1%	65	-0.69	1.68	186	75
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	74
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	74
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	74
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	73
Brendan Cellucci L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	21.2%	14.6%	3.3%	.381	4.25	23.2%	9.2%	137	-0.74	3.98	288	73
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	22.5%	13.1%	1.27	5.01
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82