Larson Kindreich
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112122vR 131
ERA4.95
FIP4.95
K%22.6%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 54.5% | 9.1% | 45.5% | 0.0% | 1.12 | -0.35 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 54.5% | 9.1% | 45.5% | 0.0% | 1.12 | -0.27 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 12 | 65 | 282 | 91 | 45 | 4 | 67% | 3.6 | 24.3% | 18.6% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 3.62 | 4.18 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 12 | 65 | 282 | 91 | 45 | 4 | 67% | 3.6 | 32.3% | 16.0% | 16.3% | 1.4% | 3.62 | 3.18 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 30 | 13 | 70 | 312 | 87 | 51 | 7 | 43% | 2.3 | 21.5% | 18.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.14 | 5.39 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 30 | 13 | 70 | 312 | 87 | 51 | 7 | 43% | 2.3 | 27.9% | 16.3% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 5.14 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 30 | 134 | 42 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 20.4% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 3.03 | 4.15 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 30 | 134 | 42 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.3% | 18.7% | 12.7% | 0.7% | 3.03 | 3.23 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 78 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 3.69 | 5.02 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 78 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.1% | 10.4% | 18.7% | 3.0% | 3.69 | 3.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 67 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 65 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.94 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 61 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.94 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 58 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.64 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 107 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 121 | 25 | 236 | 1029 | 246 | 169 | 27 | 21% | 1.9 | 23.9% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 4.62 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 21 | 200 | 873 | 208 | 144 | 23 | 21% | 1.9 | 23.9% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Larson Kindreich (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 22.6% | 12.8% | 3.2% | — | 5.01 | 22.5% | 9.9% | 133 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 82 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 81 |
| Will Lamb L 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 79 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 78 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 78 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 77 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 77 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 77 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | .285 | 6.48 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.19 | 3.40 | 144 | 76 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 76 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | .283 | 5.02 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.94 | 4.08 | 165 | 76 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 75 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 75 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 75 |
| Josh D. Smith L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.03 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 3.34 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 164 | -0.69 | 3.09 | 335 | 75 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.22 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.74 | 32.4% | 26.1% | 65 | -0.48 | 1.79 | 186 | 74 |
| Erik Rivera L 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 74 |
| David Rollins L 2026 · 5.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.89 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 5.1% | .260 | 6.02 | 15.9% | 12.5% | 20 | +0.13 | 3.79 | 132 | 74 |
| Jeff Belge L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 175 | 74 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 5.1% | .275 | 2.95 | 30.5% | 20.8% | 37 | -2.52 | 2.95 | 266 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 1.28 | 4.96 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |