Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 5 | 35 | 136 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 50% | 3.5 | 19.0% | 15.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 2.34 | 6.11 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 5 | 35 | 136 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 50% | 3.5 | 25.7% | 9.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 2.34 | 3.71 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 19 | 97 | 396 | 82 | 31 | 4 | 86% | 4.4 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 2.50 | 3.68 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 19 | 97 | 396 | 82 | 31 | 4 | 86% | 4.4 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 1.0% | 2.50 | 2.90 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 60 | 264 | 48 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 14.2% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.62 | 5.87 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 60 | 264 | 48 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 14 | 4 | 60 | 280 | 58 | 27 | 6 | 29% | 4.3 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 6.75 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 40 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.46 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.46 | 5.46 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 130 | 576 | 98 | 59 | 15 | — | — | 17.0% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 6.06 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.46 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 42 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 42 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 10.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.35 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 41 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 11.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.39 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 25 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.0% | 10.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.35 | 5.39 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 29 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 11.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.39 | 5.46 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 0 | 110 | 465 | 69 | 51 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.9% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.37 | 5.04 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 125 | 93 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.9% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.37 | 5.04 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 83 | 28 | 252 | 1076 | 172 | 112 | 31 | 34% | 3.0 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.64 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 22 | 200 | 853 | 136 | 88 | 25 | 34% | 3.0 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Adametz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.46 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | — | 5.41 | 14.8% | 4.0% | 200 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Drake Britton L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 87 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 82 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 82 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 80 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 79 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 78 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .258 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 4.6% | 144 | +0.04 | 4.44 | 188 | 77 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2026 · 6.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.06 | 11.5% | 12.7% | 4.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 145 | 73 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 73 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 219 | 72 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 72 |
| José Manuel Fernández L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 13.6% | 8.7% | 3.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 263 | 70 |
| Dalton Stambaugh L 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.33 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 3.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 148 | 70 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.01 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 49 | -0.26 | 2.69 | 221 | 69 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2029 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 69 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 69 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.43 | 13.9% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 212 | 69 |
| Stu Flesland III L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 211 | 68 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.35 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .307 | 5.37 | 17.6% | 3.8% | 50 | +1.02 | 4.24 | 501 | 68 |
| Will Lamb L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 14.5% | 10.9% | 1.26 | 5.39 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |