Alex Ayala Jr.
P
Charleston RiverDogs
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101111vR 120
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%22.8%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | 4 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 45.5% | 13.6% | 31.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | 4 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 45.5% | 13.6% | 31.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.16 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 6 | 57 | 236 | 68 | 24 | 4 | 38% | 3.6 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 3.63 | 4.28 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 6 | 57 | 236 | 68 | 24 | 4 | 38% | 3.6 | 28.8% | 10.2% | 18.6% | 1.7% | 3.63 | 2.89 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 17 | 74 | 325 | 59 | 46 | 11 | 74% | 3.2 | 13.6% | 16.7% | -3.1% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 5.86 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 17 | 74 | 325 | 59 | 46 | 11 | 74% | 3.2 | 18.2% | 14.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 50 | 209 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 50 | 212 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 50 | 212 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 49 | 208 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 48 | 202 | 47 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 133 | 561 | 131 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 3.95 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 80 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 23 | 136 | 583 | 103 | 86 | 17 | 53% | 3.2 | 17.7% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 5.04 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 34 | 200 | 855 | 151 | 127 | 24 | 53% | 3.2 | 17.7% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 5.04 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Ayala Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.34 | 23.3% | 14.0% | 150 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 84 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 83 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 81 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 81 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 79 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 79 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.23 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 3.54 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 62 | -1.69 | 3.54 | 186 | 78 |
| Angel Perdomo L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.47 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 1.4% | .315 | 4.10 | 32.7% | 17.7% | 100 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 540 | 77 |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 76 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.64 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 2.98 | 26.6% | 12.9% | 99 | -1.66 | 2.15 | 175 | 76 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.28 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .206 | 4.45 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 193 | 76 |
| Jordan Woods L 2024 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 143 | 76 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 75 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.14 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 3.95 | 15.5% | 4.2% | 121 | -1.19 | 3.67 | 288 | 75 |
| JP Sears L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.0% | .268 | 3.25 | 24.7% | 17.8% | 222 | -0.65 | 2.18 | 927 | 73 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 73 |
| Samuel Strickland L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 4.5% | .337 | 3.71 | 20.5% | 14.3% | 133 | -1.15 | 3.09 | 277 | 72 |
| Nick Sando L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.09 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .251 | 2.81 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 21 | -1.28 | 2.81 | 174 | 72 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2029 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 72 |
| Drake Owenby L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.88 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 140 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 49 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 1.17 | 4.39 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |