Jake Miller — OGILVIE

Jake Miller P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94102vR 110

ERA4.05

FIP4.05

K%21.4%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—60

CMD4555

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	5	15	71	21	3	5	100%	2.9	21.9%	5.0%	16.9%	7.2%	8.59	5.81	—
2022	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	5	15	71	21	3	5	100%	2.9	29.6%	4.2%	25.4%	7.0%	8.59	5.28	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	35	162	42	18	5	75%	2.9	17.2%	14.1%	3.1%	3.8%	7.13	5.50	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	35	162	42	18	5	75%	2.9	17.2%	14.1%	3.1%	3.8%	7.13	5.50	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	35	162	42	18	5	75%	2.9	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	3.1%	7.13	4.09	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	3	87	342	104	17	5	12%	3.6	23.2%	6.1%	17.0%	2.0%	1.85	3.00	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	3	87	342	104	17	5	12%	3.6	23.2%	6.1%	17.0%	2.0%	1.85	3.00	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	3	87	342	104	17	5	12%	3.6	30.4%	5.0%	25.4%	1.5%	1.85	2.05	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	20	83	21	4	1	100%	3.3	19.3%	6.6%	12.8%	1.7%	1.80	3.23	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	20	83	21	4	1	100%	3.3	19.3%	6.6%	12.8%	1.7%	1.80	3.23	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	20	83	21	4	1	100%	3.3	25.3%	4.8%	20.5%	1.2%	1.80	2.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	7	7	23	87	24	8	1	100%	3.3	—	—	—	—	0.77	—	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	7	7	23	87	24	8	1	100%	3.3	—	—	—	—	0.77	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	DET	1	1	3	10	5	1	0	100%	2.7	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2026	25	A RAW	DET	2	2	5	18	5	1	0	100%	2.5	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.46	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	DET	3	3	13	49	12	4	1	100%	4.2	24.5%	8.2%	16.3%	2.0%	1.42	3.19	—
2026	25	AA RAW	DET	1	1	3	10	2	2	0	100%	3.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.94	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	5	23	5	1	1	100%	5.4	21.4%	6.5%	14.9%	2.8%	4.05	4.05	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	29	110	29	9	2	—	—	26.3%	8.6%	17.7%	1.5%	1.39	0.76	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	79	332	72	22	9	100%	6.0	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	2.9%	4.06	4.06	+0.8
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	77	327	72	23	10	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.0%	14.9%	2.9%	4.10	4.11	+0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	75	317	69	23	10	100%	5.8	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	3.0%	4.17	4.21	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	72	303	66	23	10	100%	6.0	21.6%	7.5%	14.2%	3.2%	4.27	4.34	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	67	285	61	22	10	100%	6.1	21.3%	7.8%	13.5%	3.4%	4.42	4.52	+0.3
2032	31	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	63	266	55	22	10	100%	6.3	20.9%	8.1%	12.8%	3.6%	4.60	4.72	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	38	160	35	11	4	100%	6.3	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	2.7%	3.99	3.99	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	51	215	47	15	6	100%	6.4	21.9%	7.0%	14.9%	2.8%	4.03	4.04	+0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	58	245	53	18	7	100%	5.8	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	2.9%	4.10	4.14	+0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	59	249	54	19	8	100%	5.9	21.6%	7.5%	14.2%	3.0%	4.20	4.27	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	58	245	52	19	8	100%	5.8	21.3%	7.8%	13.5%	3.2%	4.34	4.44	+0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	56	236	49	19	8	100%	6.2	20.9%	8.1%	12.8%	3.4%	4.52	4.64	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	322	1357	292	101	41	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.21	3.89	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	63	26	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.21	3.89	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		54	30	181	745	163	61	20	56%	3.3	21.8%	8.2%	13.7%	2.7%	3.29	3.79	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	33	200	825	180	67	22	56%	3.3	21.8%	8.2%	13.7%	2.7%	3.29	3.79	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.05	21.4%	6.5%	2.8%	—	4.13	21.8%	14.9%	231	+0.08	—	—	—
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	86
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	76
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	75
Liarvis Breto L 2018 · 2.89 FIP	25	SW	2.89	22.0%	7.8%	1.2%	.329	3.72	20.0%	4.8%	30	+0.83	2.83	148	75
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	436	74
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	72
Parker Mushinski L 2021 · 3.50 FIP	25	SW	3.50	24.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.357	4.06	21.3%	11.5%	143	+0.56	3.11	455	72
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	72
Hunter Patteson L 2023 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	21.0%	5.5%	2.1%	.372	5.09	16.9%	7.7%	328	+1.93	3.16	344	71
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	71
Aaron Rozek L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	25	SP-	3.93	24.2%	3.1%	4.5%	.263	4.72	16.3%	8.7%	298	+0.79	3.70	569	70
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	70
Brent Headrick L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	22.6%	7.6%	4.3%	.299	2.87	28.1%	21.0%	138	-1.67	2.21	409	69
Drake Owenby L 2017 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP-	4.13	23.4%	7.8%	3.7%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	140	69
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	68
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	68
Brady Basso L 2023 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	20.6%	7.0%	2.2%	.264	4.04	20.2%	14.3%	196	+0.57	2.24	306	68
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	68
Matt Purke L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	12.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.340	3.78	20.6%	7.6%	169	-0.04	3.01	226	67
Will Dion L 2023 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	22.3%	8.4%	2.0%	.289	4.06	21.2%	13.2%	294	+0.69	3.09	526	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	70	21.6%	7.2%	1.20	4.23
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43