Jake Miller
P
Erie SeaWolves
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.19
FIP4.19
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%14.2%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
OFP—45
STUF5050
CTRL5560
CMD5055
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 5 | 5 | 15 | 71 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 21.9% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 8.59 | 6.03 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 12 | 9 | 35 | 162 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 7.13 | 5.55 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 24 | 3 | 87 | 342 | 104 | 17 | 5 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 1.85 | 3.01 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 6 | 6 | 20 | 83 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 1.80 | 3.22 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | DET | 13 | — | 13 | 54 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 23.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | DET | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 10 | 4 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | DET | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 29 | 10 | 4 | 22.7% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 23 | 157 | 658 | 139 | 53 | 20 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.99 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 29 | 200 | 836 | 177 | 67 | 25 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.08 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.11 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 96 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Rodolfo Aguilar L 2027 · 2.92 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.92 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 1.2% | .253 | 3.59 | 15.8% | 2.7% | 65 | +0.67 | 2.92 | 115 | 84 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 84 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 84 |
| Jeff Malm L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 101 | 83 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .231 | 3.89 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 352 | +0.02 | 2.68 | 740 | 81 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 81 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 80 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.21 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .276 | 4.94 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.73 | 2.63 | 160 | 80 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 80 |
| David Rollins L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 17.8% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .391 | 4.73 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 107 | +0.86 | 3.60 | 132 | 80 |
| Tyler Webb L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .324 | 3.32 | 24.3% | 17.3% | 185 | -0.41 | 3.10 | 337 | 79 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 79 |
| Jordan Jess L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 19.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 136 | 79 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .331 | 3.71 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.42 | 3.12 | 310 | 79 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 78 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.22 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.63 | 2.48 | 122 | 78 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.27 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .317 | 3.29 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.98 | 2.97 | 245 | 77 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2029 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 77 |
| Luis Avilán L 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.42 | 22.3% | 5.9% | 2.6% | .276 | 2.71 | 26.1% | 17.6% | 145 | -0.71 | 2.65 | 256 | 76 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.94 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 1.2% | .358 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 40 | +1.38 | 2.94 | 141 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.