Jake Miller

P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

A+40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1213ETA2029MLB%3%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	24	3	87	1.85	2.05	30.4%	5.0%	—	K 23.2% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.00
2025	24	MIX2 levels	6	6	20	1.80	2.25	25.3%	4.8%	—	K 19.3% · BB 6.6% · FIP 3.23
2026	25	MIX4 levels	7	7	23	0.77	2.63	27.6%	9.2%	—	K 27.6% · BB 9.2% · FIP 2.57
2027PROJ	26	MLBDET	1	1	2	4.02	4.02	22.0%	6.3%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBDET	4	4	22	4.01	4.02	22.1%	6.7%	0.3
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBDET	6	6	34	4.08	4.12	22.1%	7.0%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsTommy Shirley (age 26) · T.J. Sikkema (age 26) · Ben Shields (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 110

ERA4.02

FIP4.02

K%22.0%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%15.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	5	15	71	21	3	5	100%	2.9	21.9%	5.0%	16.9%	7.2%	8.59	5.81	—
2022	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	5	15	71	21	3	5	100%	2.9	29.6%	4.2%	25.4%	7.0%	8.59	5.28	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	35	162	42	18	5	75%	2.9	17.2%	14.1%	3.1%	3.8%	7.13	5.50	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	35	162	42	18	5	75%	2.9	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	3.1%	7.13	4.09	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	3	87	342	104	17	5	12%	3.6	23.2%	6.1%	17.0%	2.0%	1.85	3.00	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	3	87	342	104	17	5	12%	3.6	23.2%	6.1%	17.0%	2.0%	1.85	3.00	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	3	87	342	104	17	5	12%	3.6	30.4%	5.0%	25.4%	1.5%	1.85	2.05	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	20	83	21	4	1	100%	3.3	19.3%	6.6%	12.8%	1.7%	1.80	3.23	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	20	83	21	4	1	100%	3.3	19.3%	6.6%	12.8%	1.7%	1.80	3.23	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	20	83	21	4	1	100%	3.3	25.3%	4.8%	20.5%	1.2%	1.80	2.25	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	7	7	23	87	24	8	1	100%	3.3	27.6%	9.2%	18.4%	1.1%	0.77	2.57	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	7	7	23	87	24	8	1	100%	3.3	27.6%	9.2%	18.4%	1.1%	0.77	2.57	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	7	7	23	87	24	8	1	100%	3.3	27.6%	9.2%	18.4%	1.1%	0.77	2.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	DET	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	22.0%	6.3%	15.7%	2.9%	4.02	4.02	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	59	247	55	17	7	100%	5.9	22.1%	6.7%	15.5%	3.0%	4.08	4.09	+0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	57	240	53	17	7	100%	6.3	22.1%	7.0%	15.1%	3.1%	4.15	4.19	+0.8
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	22	93	21	6	3	100%	5.5	22.1%	6.7%	15.5%	2.9%	4.01	4.02	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	34	144	32	10	4	100%	5.7	22.1%	7.0%	15.1%	2.9%	4.08	4.12	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	56	238	53	16	7	100%	6.3	22.1%	6.9%	15.2%	2.9%	4.05	3.70	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	57	25	100%	6.0	22.1%	6.9%	15.2%	2.9%	4.05	3.70	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		54	30	181	745	163	61	20	56%	3.3	21.8%	8.2%	13.7%	2.7%	3.29	3.79	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	33	200	825	180	67	22	56%	3.3	21.8%	8.2%	13.7%	2.7%	3.29	3.79	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 13 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.10 (+0.91)K% 24.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.770	18.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.150	9.39%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 17 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.23 (+0.57)K% 23.9% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.88%	—	×0.810	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.97%	—	×1.100	6.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷1.056	×1.200	1.70%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 62 IPFIP 1.67 → 2.67 (+1.00)K% 33.9% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.89%	—	×0.740	25.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.86%	—	×1.180	6.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷1.099	×1.300	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 1.67 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 20 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.89 (+1.04)K% 23.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.26%	—	×0.770	17.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.49%	—	×1.150	4.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷0.889	×1.250	3.27%

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 29 IPFIP 4.59 → 5.50 (+0.92)K% 23.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.24%	—	×0.740	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.97%	—	×1.180	14.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.52%	÷1.216	×1.300	3.76%

Result: FIP 4.59 → 5.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Tigers · 6 IPFIP -0.07 → 1.31 (+1.37)K% 45.0% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.00%	—	×0.680	30.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.250	6.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.924	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP -0.07 → 1.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 15 IPFIP 5.00 → 5.81 (+0.81)K% 29.6% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.58%	—	×0.740	21.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.23%	—	×1.180	4.99%
HR / BF /BF	7.04%	÷1.279	×1.300	7.16%

Result: FIP 5.00 → 5.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.14	22.1%	15.3%	115	+0.12	—	—	—
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	84
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	84
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	77
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	75
Pat Misch L 2008 · 5.05 FIP	26	SW	5.05	16.5%	5.7%	4.8%	.268	4.53	10.8%	5.4%	100	-0.52	3.50	265	74
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	73
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	73
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	72
Drew Parrish L 2024 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP-	4.66	20.2%	4.8%	4.9%	.290	4.93	15.1%	5.7%	70	+0.27	3.47	522	72
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	70
Sam Long L 2021 · 3.34 FIP	26	SW	3.34	24.6%	8.5%	2.2%	.274	4.20	19.5%	10.3%	191	+0.86	3.08	446	70
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	70
Hunter Patteson L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	18.5%	6.0%	3.9%	.302	5.32	16.3%	6.0%	239	+0.91	3.16	346	70
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	68
Jason Wheeler L 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	16.1%	5.8%	3.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	401	67
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	67
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	67
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	66
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	66
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	22.1%	6.7%	1.16	4.08
Dale Thayer ('15)	1.3	63	20.4%	6.3%	1.07	3.47
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*