Jake Miller
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.3 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93103vR 112
ERA4.06
FIP4.06
K%21.4%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%14.8%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 5 | 5 | 15 | 71 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 100% | 2.9 | 21.9% | 5.0% | 16.9% | 5.9% | 8.59 | 5.11 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 5 | 5 | 15 | 71 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 100% | 2.9 | 29.6% | 4.2% | 25.4% | 7.0% | 8.59 | 5.28 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 9 | 35 | 162 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 75% | 2.9 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 7.13 | 5.19 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 9 | 35 | 162 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 75% | 2.9 | 25.9% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 7.13 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 3 | 87 | 342 | 104 | 17 | 5 | 12% | 3.6 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 17.0% | 2.0% | 1.85 | 3.01 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 3 | 87 | 342 | 104 | 17 | 5 | 12% | 3.6 | 30.4% | 5.0% | 25.4% | 1.5% | 1.85 | 2.05 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 20 | 83 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 1.6% | 1.80 | 3.18 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 20 | 83 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 25.3% | 4.8% | 20.5% | 1.2% | 1.80 | 2.25 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 7 | 7 | 23 | 87 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | — | — | — | — | 0.77 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 36 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.99 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 63 | 256 | 60 | 19 | 6 | — | — | 23.5% | 7.4% | 16.1% | 2.3% | 2.85 | 2.56 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 16 | 68 | 14 | 4 | 2 | — | — | 21.4% | 6.5% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.61 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 60 | 251 | 55 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 6.8% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 59 | 247 | 54 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 7.0% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 52 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 54 | 229 | 50 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 42 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 8.2% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 38 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 4.81 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.8% | 6.8% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.9% | 7.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 43 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 43 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 41 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 8.2% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 55 | 323 | 1366 | 292 | 103 | 42 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 3.94 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 64 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 54 | 30 | 181 | 745 | 163 | 61 | 18 | 56% | 3.3 | 21.8% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 2.5% | 3.29 | 3.65 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 33 | 200 | 825 | 180 | 67 | 20 | 56% | 3.3 | 21.8% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 2.5% | 3.29 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.8% | 175 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 86 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 81 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 77 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.18 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .393 | 3.47 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 224 | +0.29 | 3.02 | 409 | 73 |
| Ben Shields L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.20 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 2.91 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.29 | 2.91 | 147 | 73 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.3% | 6.9% | 1.5% | .347 | 5.39 | 14.8% | 5.5% | 58 | +2.46 | 2.93 | 431 | 73 |
| Nico Tellache L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 71 |
| Avery Weems L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.13 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | .323 | 5.19 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.06 | 2.46 | 227 | 71 |
| Parker Mushinski L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .357 | 4.17 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 143 | +0.67 | 3.21 | 439 | 71 |
| Drake Owenby L 2024 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.88 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 140 | 70 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 69 |
| Brant Hurter L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 3.9% | .298 | 3.14 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 88 | -1.18 | 2.84 | 430 | 69 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 24.2% | 3.1% | 5.0% | .263 | 4.74 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 298 | +0.56 | 3.88 | 523 | 68 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.86 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.87 | 14.9% | 6.2% | 162 | +0.01 | 3.39 | 261 | 68 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 12.5% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .340 | 3.76 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 169 | -0.07 | 2.92 | 226 | 67 |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.34 | 20.6% | 7.0% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.27 | 21.7% | 14.5% | 159 | +0.93 | 2.24 | 269 | 67 |
| Jacques Pucheu L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.21 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 134 | 66 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.42 | 19.1% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .313 | 6.01 | 15.5% | 3.8% | 53 | +2.59 | 3.42 | 205 | 66 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 66 |
| Antonio Velez L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.70 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | .324 | 5.31 | 18.7% | 12.5% | 26 | +0.61 | 3.46 | 187 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 51 | 21.4% | 7.4% | 1.23 | 4.30 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jake McGee ('22) | 8 | 44 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 1.34 | 4.27 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |