Hunter Patteson
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+0.7
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.8%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%11.1%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 8 | 7 | 18 | 80 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 21.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 4.42 | 3.16 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 24 | 15 | 91 | 369 | 91 | 19 | 11 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.25 | 4.41 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 24 | 21 | 121 | 494 | 107 | 39 | 13 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 2.97 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 3 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 10 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 14.21 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 85 | 37 | 14 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | KC | — | — | 108 | 465 | 95 | 43 | 15 | 20.4% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 5.24 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 89 | 38 | 14 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 89 | 38 | 14 | 20.1% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 87 | 37 | 14 | 20.1% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.66 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 84 | 37 | 14 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 80 | 36 | 14 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.79 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 76 | 35 | 14 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 71 | 34 | 13 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 66 | 33 | 13 | 18.8% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.09 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 68 | 29 | 13 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.97 | 4.94 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 62 | 28 | 12 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 5.03 | 5.07 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 45 | 237 | 979 | 179 | 77 | 32 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 3.87 | 4.32 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 38 | 200 | 826 | 151 | 65 | 27 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 3.87 | 4.32 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Patteson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.65 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 313 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Pena L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 88 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .310 | 3.54 | 23.9% | 16.0% | 205 | -0.55 | 3.17 | 372 | 86 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 86 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 86 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2024 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 85 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 85 |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 84 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.53 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.39 | 2.83 | 845 | 84 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .338 | 3.68 | 24.4% | 21.0% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.29 | 412 | 84 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 83 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2023 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 82 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 82 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 82 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 81 |
| Eric Wooten L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 81 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 80 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 80 |
| Avery Weems L 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 4.5% | .323 | 5.15 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.26 | 2.46 | 227 | 79 |
| Sam Garcia L 2023 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 79 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2023 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$7M | ||