Hunter Patteson — OGILVIE

Hunter Patteson P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION116 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 125

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%18.1%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	18	80	23	3	1	88%	2.3	21.0%	5.5%	15.5%	2.1%	4.42	3.16	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	18	80	23	3	1	88%	2.3	21.0%	5.5%	15.5%	2.1%	4.42	3.16	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	18	80	23	3	1	88%	2.3	28.7%	3.8%	25.0%	1.2%	4.42	1.79	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	91	369	91	19	11	62%	3.8	18.5%	6.0%	12.5%	3.9%	4.25	4.41	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	91	369	91	19	11	62%	3.8	18.5%	6.0%	12.5%	3.9%	4.25	4.41	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	15	91	369	91	19	11	62%	3.8	24.7%	5.1%	19.5%	3.0%	4.25	3.30	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	121	494	107	39	13	88%	5.1	17.0%	8.9%	8.1%	3.0%	2.97	4.45	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	121	494	107	39	13	88%	5.1	17.0%	8.9%	8.1%	3.0%	2.97	4.45	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	121	494	107	39	13	88%	5.1	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	2.6%	2.97	3.69	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	26	23	116	502	96	56	23	88%	4.5	15.5%	12.0%	3.6%	5.5%	4.19	6.30	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	26	23	116	502	96	56	23	88%	4.5	15.5%	12.0%	3.6%	5.5%	4.19	6.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	KC	22	21	100	426	83	48	21	95%	4.5	19.5%	11.3%	8.2%	4.9%	4.52	5.59	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	KC	4	2	16	76	13	8	2	50%	4.1	17.1%	10.5%	6.6%	2.6%	2.20	4.43	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	12	50	9	4	2	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.81	4.81	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	128	552	105	60	25	—	—	19.0%	10.9%	8.1%	4.5%	4.25	6.16	-1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	139	588	109	50	19	100%	6.1	18.5%	8.6%	9.9%	3.3%	4.77	4.79	+0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	135	570	106	49	19	100%	6.1	18.6%	8.6%	10.0%	3.3%	4.79	4.83	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	129	544	101	48	19	100%	6.1	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.87	4.93	-0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	121	512	94	47	19	100%	6.1	18.3%	9.1%	9.2%	3.7%	5.00	5.09	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	52	220	41	19	7	100%	5.8	18.5%	8.6%	9.9%	3.0%	4.64	4.66	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	80	338	63	29	10	100%	6.2	18.6%	8.6%	10.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	91	384	71	34	12	100%	6.1	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.73	4.79	-0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	95	401	73	36	14	100%	5.9	18.3%	9.1%	9.2%	3.4%	4.85	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	319	1347	249	119	43	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.73	4.41	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	75	27	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	3.2%	4.73	4.41	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		82	66	347	1445	247	131	58	80%	4.2	17.1%	9.0%	8.1%	4.0%	3.79	5.01	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	38	200	834	143	75	34	80%	4.2	17.1%	9.0%	8.1%	4.0%	3.79	5.01	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Patteson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	18.1%	8.6%	3.2%	—	4.85	18.6%	9.9%	403	+0.04	—	—	—
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	87
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	83
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	83
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	81
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	81
Roenis Elías L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SP	4.32	17.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.299	3.98	17.7%	8.3%	251	-0.34	3.15	564	80
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	80
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	80
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	80
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	80
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	80
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	79
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.79	20.0%	12.2%	267	-1.32	2.79	473	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	79
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	79
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	78
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	78
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	78
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	133	18.4%	8.7%	1.31	4.84
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75