Hunter Patteson

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	24	15	91	4.25	3.30	24.7%	5.1%	—	K 18.5% · BB 6.0% · FIP 4.41
2025	25	MIX2 levels	24	21	121	2.97	3.69	21.7%	7.9%	—	K 17.0% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.45
2026	26	MIX2 levels	27	23	118	4.12	5.41	19.0%	11.0%	—	K 15.5% · BB 11.7% · FIP 6.22
2027PROJ	27	MLBKC	1	1	3	5.55	5.55	16.7%	10.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	28	MLBKC	5	5	29	5.47	5.50	17.1%	10.7%	-0.0
2029PROJ42% MLB	29	MLBKC	6	6	39	5.48	5.54	17.2%	10.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJustin Marks (age 27) · Luis Leroy Cruz (age 24) · Darin Gorski (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 139

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%16.7%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP141

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	18	80	23	3	1	88%	2.3	21.0%	5.5%	15.5%	2.1%	4.42	3.16	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	18	80	23	3	1	88%	2.3	28.7%	3.8%	25.0%	1.2%	4.42	1.79	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	91	369	91	19	11	62%	3.8	18.5%	6.0%	12.5%	3.9%	4.25	4.41	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	91	369	91	19	11	62%	3.8	18.5%	6.0%	12.5%	3.9%	4.25	4.41	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	15	91	369	91	19	11	62%	3.8	24.7%	5.1%	19.5%	3.0%	4.25	3.30	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	121	494	107	39	13	88%	5.1	17.0%	8.9%	8.1%	3.0%	2.97	4.45	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	121	494	107	39	13	88%	5.1	17.0%	8.9%	8.1%	3.0%	2.97	4.45	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	121	494	107	39	13	88%	5.1	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	2.6%	2.97	3.69	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	118	511	97	56	23	85%	4.4	15.5%	11.7%	3.8%	5.4%	4.12	6.22	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	118	511	97	56	23	85%	4.4	15.5%	11.7%	3.8%	5.4%	4.12	6.22	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	118	511	97	56	23	85%	4.4	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	4.5%	4.12	5.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	KC	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	16.7%	10.8%	5.8%	3.8%	5.55	5.55	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	108	455	78	49	18	100%	6.0	17.1%	10.7%	6.4%	3.9%	5.47	5.50	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	92	388	67	41	15	100%	6.1	17.2%	10.7%	6.5%	3.9%	5.48	5.54	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	81	343	59	37	14	100%	5.8	17.1%	10.8%	6.3%	4.1%	5.56	5.65	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	29	122	21	13	5	100%	5.8	17.1%	10.7%	6.4%	3.9%	5.47	5.50	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	39	165	28	18	6	100%	6.5	17.2%	10.7%	6.5%	3.9%	5.48	5.54	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	44	186	32	20	8	100%	6.3	17.1%	10.8%	6.3%	4.1%	5.56	5.65	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	19	112	475	81	51	19	100%	5.9	17.1%	10.7%	6.4%	4.0%	5.51	5.20	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	144	91	34	100%	6.0	17.1%	10.7%	6.4%	4.0%	5.51	5.20	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		83	66	349	1454	249	131	58	80%	4.2	17.1%	9.0%	8.1%	4.0%	3.77	4.99	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	38	200	834	143	75	33	80%	4.2	17.1%	9.0%	8.1%	4.0%	3.77	4.99	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 100 IPFIP 5.59 → 6.58 (+1.00)K% 19.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.48%	—	×0.810	15.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×1.100	12.39%
HR / BF /BF	4.93%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.92%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.59 → 6.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 18 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.40 (+0.20)K% 16.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.47%	—	×0.860	14.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.41%	—	×0.900	8.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 72 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.57 (+0.73)K% 22.0% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.95%	—	×0.770	16.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.01%	—	×1.150	9.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.05%	÷0.983	×1.250	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 49 IPFIP 4.94 → 5.68 (+0.74)K% 21.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.26%	—	×0.810	17.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.73%	—	×1.100	8.50%
HR / BF /BF	4.83%	÷1.077	×1.200	5.38%

Result: FIP 4.94 → 5.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 55 IPFIP 2.39 → 3.33 (+0.95)K% 26.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.29%	—	×0.740	19.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.76%	—	×1.180	4.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷1.020	×1.300	2.39%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.39 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 36 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.88 (+1.32)K% 22.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.44%	—	×0.770	17.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.05%	—	×1.150	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	4.49%	÷0.959	×1.250	5.85%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Royals · 15 IPFIP 1.86 → 3.16 (+1.30)K% 30.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.88%	—	×0.680	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.41%	—	×1.250	5.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.06%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Patteson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.8%	—	5.56	17.1%	6.4%	281	+0.01	—	—	—
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	83
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	82
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	81
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	80
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	78
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	78
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	78
Matt Crouse L 2017 · 4.64 FIP	27	SP	4.64	12.0%	7.4%	2.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	342	75
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	74
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	74
Brian Burres L 2008 · 4.79 FIP	27	SP-	4.79	10.6%	8.1%	2.9%	.316	4.87	13.0%	5.0%	93	+0.08	4.50	344	74
Alex Troop L 2023 · 5.03 FIP	27	SP-	5.03	17.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.275	5.10	17.3%	10.5%	43	+0.07	2.93	379	74
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	72
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	72
Wandy Rodriguez L 2006 · 4.43 FIP	27	SP-	4.43	16.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.311	3.58	21.7%	14.6%	526	-0.85	3.37	1,572	71
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2024 · 5.19 FIP	27	SP-	5.19	12.4%	7.9%	3.9%	.290	3.85	16.3%	7.3%	118	-1.34	2.95	313	71
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	71
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	71
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	71
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	106	17.0%	10.7%	1.51	5.52
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Dan Wright ('04)	1.8	122	13.7%	10.2%	1.60	5.65
Armando Galarraga ('12)	2.7	108	14.6%	9.6%	1.56	4.78
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Jerry Ujdur ('80-'84, -1 WAR*)	1.3	87	16.2%*	9.7%*	1.82*	5.05*