Hunter Patteson
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 128
ERA4.82
FIP4.82
K%18.1%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 7 | 18 | 80 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 88% | 2.3 | 21.0% | 5.5% | 15.5% | 2.1% | 4.42 | 3.16 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 7 | 18 | 80 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 88% | 2.3 | 28.7% | 3.8% | 25.0% | 1.2% | 4.42 | 1.79 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 15 | 91 | 369 | 91 | 19 | 11 | 62% | 3.8 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 12.5% | 3.9% | 4.25 | 4.46 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 15 | 91 | 369 | 91 | 19 | 11 | 62% | 3.8 | 24.7% | 5.1% | 19.5% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 3.30 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 121 | 494 | 107 | 39 | 13 | 88% | 5.1 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 2.97 | 4.38 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 121 | 494 | 107 | 39 | 13 | 88% | 5.1 | 21.7% | 7.9% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 2.97 | 3.69 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 17 | 16 | 74 | 325 | 61 | 40 | 17 | 94% | 4.4 | 15.2% | 13.5% | 1.7% | 6.3% | 4.72 | 6.98 | -1.8 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | KC | — | — | 139 | 599 | 111 | 64 | 26 | — | — | 18.5% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 4.77 | 5.97 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | KC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 139 | 588 | 109 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.80 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 106 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.85 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 41 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 63 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 105 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.39 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 75 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 59 | 305 | 1268 | 219 | 115 | 51 | 81% | 4.2 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 3.87 | 4.99 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 39 | 200 | 831 | 143 | 75 | 33 | 81% | 4.2 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 3.87 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Patteson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.2% | — | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 274 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 87 |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 83 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.05 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.13 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 252 | +0.08 | 3.47 | 393 | 82 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 81 |
| James Gillheeney L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 81 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 80 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 80 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 80 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.29 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .299 | 3.96 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 251 | -0.33 | 3.19 | 564 | 80 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 80 |
| Darin Gorski L 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.79 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .323 | 4.39 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.40 | 4.39 | 206 | 79 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 79 |
| Miguel Pena L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 79 |
| Kyle Hald L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.17 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 124 | 78 |
| Chris Jones L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.69 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.03 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 118 | +0.34 | 3.69 | 268 | 78 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 78 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.79 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.62 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.83 | 3.79 | 327 | 77 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 77 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 133 | 77 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.70 | 13.1% | 6.0% | 213 | +0.48 | 4.22 | 483 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 138 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 1.25 | 4.81 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |