Thomas Ireland — OGILVIE

Thomas Ireland P Round Rock Express

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%15.8%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	44	180	43	13	5	54%	3.4	16.7%	8.7%	8.0%	3.4%	3.27	4.64	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	44	180	43	13	5	54%	3.4	16.7%	8.7%	8.0%	3.4%	3.27	4.64	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	44	180	43	13	5	54%	3.4	23.9%	7.2%	16.7%	2.8%	3.27	3.51	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	68	298	75	23	5	56%	3.8	17.6%	9.5%	8.1%	2.2%	4.37	4.05	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	68	298	75	23	5	56%	3.8	17.6%	9.5%	8.1%	2.2%	4.37	4.05	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	68	298	75	23	5	56%	3.8	25.2%	7.7%	17.4%	1.7%	4.37	2.86	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	81	334	71	24	1	7%	3.0	16.5%	8.0%	8.5%	0.4%	3.10	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	81	334	71	24	1	7%	3.0	16.5%	8.0%	8.5%	0.4%	3.10	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	2	81	334	71	24	1	7%	3.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	0.3%	3.10	2.40	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	34	2	64	294	68	31	7	6%	1.9	17.9%	10.9%	7.0%	2.9%	6.19	4.59	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	34	2	64	294	68	31	7	6%	1.9	17.9%	10.9%	7.0%	2.9%	6.19	4.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	TEX	2	0	5	19	8	1	0	0%	2.5	42.1%	5.3%	36.8%	0.0%	3.60	0.21	—
2026	24	AA RAW	TEX	14	2	24	119	27	15	4	14%	1.7	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.4%	8.51	4.63	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	TEX	18	0	35	156	33	15	3	0%	1.9	21.2%	9.6%	11.5%	1.9%	4.93	3.59	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TEX	5	0	6	24	4	2	1	0%	1.1	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	2.6%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	70	318	72	33	8	—	—	22.6%	10.4%	12.2%	2.4%	6.07	4.59	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	71	0	74	313	54	28	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	8.9%	8.3%	2.6%	4.61	4.58	-0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	71	0	74	313	56	28	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	8.9%	9.1%	2.6%	4.55	4.53	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	70	0	73	308	56	28	8	0%	1.0	18.2%	9.0%	9.2%	2.7%	4.55	4.56	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	67	0	71	299	54	27	8	0%	1.1	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	2.8%	4.60	4.64	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	64	0	68	285	51	27	8	0%	1.1	18.0%	9.4%	8.6%	3.0%	4.70	4.77	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	60	0	64	268	47	26	8	0%	1.1	17.6%	9.7%	8.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.95	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	34	0	36	152	26	14	4	0%	1.1	17.2%	8.9%	8.3%	2.6%	4.61	4.58	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	49	0	51	215	39	19	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	8.9%	9.1%	2.6%	4.55	4.53	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	55	0	58	245	45	22	7	0%	1.1	18.2%	9.0%	9.2%	2.7%	4.55	4.56	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	57	0	60	253	46	23	7	0%	1.1	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	2.8%	4.60	4.64	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	57	0	60	253	45	24	7	0%	1.1	18.0%	9.4%	8.6%	3.0%	4.70	4.77	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	54	0	57	241	42	23	8	0%	1.1	17.6%	9.7%	8.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.95	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		307	0	323	1363	244	125	38	0%	1.1	17.9%	9.2%	8.7%	2.8%	4.65	4.30	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	77	24	0%	1.1	17.9%	9.2%	8.7%	2.8%	4.65	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		92	21	257	1106	190	103	23	23%	2.8	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	2.1%	4.23	3.95	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	16	200	860	148	80	18	23%	2.8	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	2.1%	4.23	3.95	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Ireland (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	15.8%	9.0%	2.6%	—	4.56	17.8%	8.9%	221	-0.13	—	—	—
Matt Crouse L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.0%	6.3%	2.0%	.276	4.40	12.2%	4.3%	268	+0.41	3.99	342	85
Jordan Harrison L 2015 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	15.6%	9.0%	2.0%	.263	4.14	16.3%	0.5%	152	+0.10	3.80	244	85
Brad Hand L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	25	SW	3.95	16.4%	7.6%	2.3%	.326	2.71	32.9%	25.0%	241	-1.24	0.84	577	82
Haylen Green L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	16.9%	8.1%	2.4%	.291	4.09	18.6%	7.8%	49	+0.07	4.02	104	82
Steve Ascher L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SU	4.14	13.3%	9.5%	1.8%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	151	82
Austin Hamilton L 2018 · 4.49 FIP	24	SW	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.323	4.02	17.3%	9.4%	68	-0.47	4.02	135	82
Michael Heesch L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	25	SU	3.79	14.0%	10.3%	1.1%	.284	4.56	11.1%	2.8%	44	+0.77	3.79	109	82
Shane McCain L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	.261	5.14	14.2%	10.7%	51	+0.66	4.34	201	81
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	81
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	80
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	80
Jacob Evans L 2018 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	15.3%	8.8%	1.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	179	80
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	80
Joel Bender L 2015 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	15.8%	9.2%	1.1%	.309	3.35	19.2%	13.4%	45	-0.22	3.22	117	80
Patrick McCoy L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	26	SU	3.81	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.336	4.28	15.4%	1.6%	44	+0.47	3.81	113	80
Hayden Howard L 2018 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	17.9%	9.6%	1.9%	.295	3.76	17.5%	9.1%	61	-0.08	3.76	200	80
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	132	80
Colton Turner L 2015 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	13.4%	10.2%	0.9%	.335	3.23	22.0%	13.6%	166	-0.53	2.79	325	79
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	78
Justin Kelly L 2017 · 3.51 FIP	24	SW	3.51	15.6%	11.2%	0.6%	.277	3.83	21.9%	4.7%	74	+0.32	3.51	160	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	70	17.6%	9.1%	1.07	4.65
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79