Thomas Ireland
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%11.8%
IP69
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 13 | 7 | 44 | 180 | 43 | 13 | 5 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 3.27 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 18 | 10 | 68 | 298 | 75 | 23 | 5 | 17.6% | 9.5% | 2.2% | 4.37 | 4.02 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 27 | 2 | 81 | 334 | 71 | 24 | 1 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 0.4% | 3.10 | 2.95 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 3 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 61 | 26 | 8 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 77 | 325 | 72 | 29 | 8 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 4.18 | 3.83 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 64 | 26 | 8 | 21.7% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.19 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 64 | 26 | 8 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 69 | 290 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 62 | 25 | 8 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 54 | 24 | 8 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 50 | 23 | 7 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 40 | 21 | 7 | 19.5% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 19 | 201 | 844 | 149 | 74 | 14 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 3.58 | 3.63 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 19 | 200 | 838 | 148 | 74 | 14 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 3.58 | 3.63 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Thomas Ireland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 210 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 94 |
| Diego Barrera L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .310 | 3.67 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 44 | -0.05 | 3.67 | 111 | 92 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 92 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.05 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.67 | 4.31 | 201 | 92 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.98 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .291 | 4.09 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.11 | 3.98 | 104 | 91 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 90 |
| Billy Strode L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.85 | 16.0% | 7.3% | 47 | -0.83 | 2.51 | 155 | 90 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 90 |
| Christian Jones L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.32 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .319 | 3.98 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 89 | +0.66 | 3.32 | 161 | 89 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 89 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 88 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 88 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 88 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .304 | 4.45 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 276 | +1.08 | 3.37 | 353 | 88 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 87 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 87 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 87 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.83 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.76 | 17.5% | 9.1% | 61 | -0.07 | 3.76 | 200 | 87 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 87 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $16M | +$9M | ||