Thomas Ireland

P Round Rock Express

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	18	10	68	4.37	2.86	25.2%	7.7%	—	K 17.6% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.05
2025	23	MIX3 levels	27	2	81	3.10	2.40	21.3%	7.2%	—	K 16.5% · BB 8.0% · FIP 2.95
2026	24	MIX3 levels	35	3	69	6.16	3.83	22.1%	10.4%	—	K 17.4% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.49
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	7	0	7	4.87	4.87	16.4%	10.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBTEX	26	0	27	4.80	4.78	17.5%	10.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBTEX	30	0	32	4.78	4.78	17.9%	10.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsLuis Perez (age 26) · Matt Crouse (age 25) · Matt Tracy (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 126

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%16.4%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	44	180	43	13	5	54%	3.4	16.7%	8.7%	8.0%	3.4%	3.27	4.64	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	44	180	43	13	5	54%	3.4	23.9%	7.2%	16.7%	2.8%	3.27	3.51	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	68	298	75	23	5	56%	3.8	17.6%	9.5%	8.1%	2.2%	4.37	4.05	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	68	298	75	23	5	56%	3.8	17.6%	9.5%	8.1%	2.2%	4.37	4.05	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	68	298	75	23	5	56%	3.8	25.2%	7.7%	17.4%	1.7%	4.37	2.86	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	81	334	71	24	1	7%	3.0	16.5%	8.0%	8.5%	0.4%	3.10	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	81	334	71	24	1	7%	3.0	16.5%	8.0%	8.5%	0.4%	3.10	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	2	81	334	71	24	1	7%	3.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	0.3%	3.10	2.40	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	3	69	317	70	33	7	9%	2.0	17.4%	10.8%	6.6%	2.7%	6.16	4.49	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	3	69	317	70	33	7	9%	2.0	17.4%	10.8%	6.6%	2.7%	6.16	4.49	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	3	69	317	70	33	7	9%	2.0	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	2.2%	6.16	3.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	16.4%	10.2%	6.2%	2.7%	4.87	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	52	0	55	233	41	23	6	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.1%	7.4%	2.7%	4.80	4.78	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	46	0	48	202	36	20	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.1%	7.8%	2.8%	4.78	4.78	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	42	0	44	185	33	19	5	0%	1.0	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	2.9%	4.81	4.85	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	38	0	40	170	31	18	5	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.1%	4.90	4.96	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	35	0	37	155	27	17	5	0%	1.0	17.6%	10.7%	6.9%	3.3%	5.04	5.14	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	26	0	27	114	20	11	3	0%	1.0	17.5%	10.1%	7.4%	2.7%	4.80	4.78	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	32	135	24	14	4	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.1%	7.8%	2.8%	4.78	4.78	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	32	0	34	144	26	15	4	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	2.9%	4.81	4.85	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	31	0	33	139	25	14	4	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.1%	4.90	4.96	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	32	135	24	14	4	0%	1.1	17.6%	10.7%	6.9%	3.3%	5.04	5.14	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	0	157	664	118	68	20	0%	1.0	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	3.0%	4.87	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	87	25	0%	1.1	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	3.0%	4.87	4.53	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		93	22	262	1129	193	105	23	24%	2.8	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	2.0%	4.26	3.94	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	17	200	862	147	80	17	24%	2.8	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	2.0%	4.26	3.94	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 35 IPFIP 3.59 → 3.82 (+0.23)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.15%	—	×0.860	18.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×0.900	8.65%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.12%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 29 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.23 (+0.79)K% 20.4% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.42%	—	×0.810	16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.97%	—	×1.100	13.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.38%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 60 IPFIP 2.13 → 2.86 (+0.72)K% 23.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.69%	—	×0.740	17.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.43%	—	×1.180	7.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.40%	÷1.037	×1.300	0.50%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.13 → 2.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 14 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.35 (+0.47)K% 15.8% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.79%	—	×0.770	12.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.77%	—	×1.150	10.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.215	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 7 IPFIP 3.55 → 3.86 (+0.31)K% 10.7% → 8.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.71%	—	×0.810	8.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.100	11.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.55 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rangers · 43 IPFIP 2.91 → 4.26 (+1.35)K% 26.8% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.77%	—	×0.680	18.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.250	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.040	×1.400	2.72%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 25 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.63 (+0.82)K% 22.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.00%	—	×0.740	16.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.180	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷1.008	×1.300	1.29%

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Rangers · 25 IPFIP 1.83 → 2.91 (+1.08)K% 29.0% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.00%	—	×0.680	19.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.250	6.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷1.124	×1.400	1.25%

Result: FIP 1.83 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Ireland (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	16.4%	10.2%	2.7%	—	4.80	17.8%	7.7%	147	-0.07	—	—	—
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	82
Matt Crouse L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.0%	6.3%	2.0%	.276	4.40	12.2%	4.3%	268	+0.41	3.99	342	82
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	81
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	80
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	80
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	80
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	80
Michael Heesch L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	25	SU	3.79	14.0%	10.3%	1.1%	.284	4.56	11.1%	2.8%	44	+0.77	3.79	109	80
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	80
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	79
Jose Molina L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	14.4%	8.9%	2.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	144	78
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	78
Alec Gamboa L 2022 · 5.36 FIP	25	SW	5.36	14.8%	13.1%	3.4%	.287	3.92	16.3%	4.4%	169	-1.44	1.46	444	78
Adam Wolf L 2022 · 3.91 FIP	25	SW	3.91	19.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.292	4.18	16.8%	5.9%	109	+0.27	3.91	383	78
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	77
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	77
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	76
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	76
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	76
Diego Barrera L 2024 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	17.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.310	4.55	17.9%	7.4%	89	+0.86	3.66	155	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	49	17.4%	10.2%	1.11	4.86
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Mike Munoz ('89-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.8	46	17.6%*	10.2%*	0.93*	4.46*