Alec Gamboa — OGILVIE

Alec Gamboa P Worcester Red Sox

Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%15.2%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%5.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p1017.9%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.248

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	12	7	25	96	33	2	0	58%	2.1	23.4%	2.6%	20.8%	0.0%	2.88	1.46	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	12	7	25	96	33	2	0	58%	2.1	34.4%	2.1%	32.3%	0.0%	2.88	0.70	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	22	11	77	329	71	30	9	50%	3.5	16.6%	10.5%	6.1%	3.7%	4.21	5.04	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	22	11	77	329	71	30	9	50%	3.5	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	2.7%	4.21	3.94	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	30	6	88	395	72	47	11	20%	2.9	14.8%	13.1%	1.7%	3.4%	5.91	5.36	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	30	6	88	395	72	47	11	20%	2.9	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	2.8%	5.91	4.68	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	3	76	326	76	48	5	8%	2.1	19.1%	14.4%	4.7%	1.7%	3.66	4.23	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	3	76	326	76	48	5	8%	2.1	19.1%	14.4%	4.7%	1.7%	3.66	4.23	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	3	76	326	76	48	5	8%	2.1	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	1.5%	3.66	3.85	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	22	12	74	316	51	31	3	55%	3.3	13.4%	8.8%	4.6%	1.2%	3.30	3.73	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	22	12	74	316	51	31	3	55%	3.3	13.4%	8.8%	4.6%	1.2%	3.30	3.73	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	22	12	74	316	51	31	3	55%	3.3	16.1%	9.8%	6.3%	0.9%	3.30	3.51	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	8	2	19	83	12	12	0	25%	2.4	12.0%	13.0%	-1.0%	0.0%	4.19	3.73	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	8	2	19	83	12	12	0	25%	2.4	12.0%	13.0%	-1.0%	0.0%	4.19	3.73	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	8	2	19	83	12	12	0	25%	2.4	14.5%	14.5%	0.0%	0.0%	4.19	3.72	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			17	2	28	109	20	8	1	12%	1.6	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	0.9%	1.29	2.99	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	34	10	79	318	67	21	8	29%	2.3	18.6%	6.2%	12.4%	2.7%	2.84	3.82	+0.7
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	34	10	79	318	67	21	8	29%	2.3	18.6%	6.2%	12.4%	2.7%	2.84	3.82	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	BOS	17	8	51	209	47	13	7	47%	3.0	22.5%	6.2%	16.3%	3.3%	3.68	3.83	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	BOS	17	2	28	109	20	8	1	12%	1.6	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	0.9%	1.29	2.98	+0.5
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	BOS	17	2	28	109	20	8	1	12%	1.6	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	0.9%	1.29	2.98	+0.5
ROS	29	MLB MLE	BOS	5	0	5	21	3	2	0	0%	1.0	15.2%	9.9%	5.3%	2.3%	4.31	4.31	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	BOS	5	0	5	21	3	2	0	0%	1.0	15.2%	9.9%	5.3%	2.3%	4.31	4.31	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	84	339	70	23	8	—	—	20.7%	6.8%	13.9%	2.5%	2.92	3.85	+0.9
FULL	29	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	33	139	70	23	8	—	—	50.5%	16.6%	33.9%	6.1%	7.48	4.28	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BOS	52	0	55	231	35	24	5	0%	1.1	15.1%	10.4%	4.7%	2.3%	4.72	4.79	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	BOS	49	0	51	216	33	23	6	0%	1.0	15.3%	10.7%	4.7%	2.6%	4.85	4.95	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	52	220	33	23	5	0%	1.0	15.1%	10.4%	4.7%	2.3%	4.72	4.79	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	BOS	47	0	49	207	32	22	5	0%	1.0	15.3%	10.7%	4.7%	2.6%	4.85	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	2	134	555	88	55	12	2%	1.1	15.8%	9.9%	5.9%	2.1%	4.03	4.19	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		176	3	200	831	132	82	18	2%	1.1	15.8%	9.9%	5.9%	2.1%	4.03	4.19	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		165	51	439	1863	309	194	43	31%	2.7	16.6%	10.4%	6.2%	2.3%	3.98	4.29	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	23	200	849	141	88	20	31%	2.7	16.6%	10.4%	6.2%	2.3%	3.98	4.29	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alec Gamboa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	13.2%	11.1%	2.2%	—	4.87	15.2%	4.7%	106	-0.13	—	—	—
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	82
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	79
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	75
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	74
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	74
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	71
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	71
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	70
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	70
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	69
Sam Freeman L 2016 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	16.3%	11.8%	1.8%	.345	4.02	22.1%	10.5%	169	-0.20	3.03	299	69
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	68
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	68
Jeremy Bleich L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	29	SU	4.35	10.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.333	3.64	19.1%	13.1%	146	-0.71	3.20	241	68
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	65
Caleb Thielbar L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	28	SU	4.15	11.8%	10.8%	1.2%	.253	2.68	19.0%	16.6%	57	-1.47	2.22	505	64
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	64
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	64
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	64
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	14.5%	10.8%	0.92	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91