Alec Gamboa

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	AAAOklahoma City…	22	12	74	3.30	3.51	16.1%	9.8%	—	K 13.9% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.69
2025	28	AAALAD	8	2	19	4.19	3.72	14.5%	14.5%	—	K 12.4% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.70
2026	29	MIX2 levels	38	11	84	2.99	3.53	20.5%	7.0%	1.0	K 18.6% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.78
2027PROJ	30	MLBBOS	29	0	30	4.31	4.48	16.2%	8.5%	0.0
2028PROJ80% MLB	31	MLBBOS	19	0	20	4.54	4.70	16.2%	8.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ85% MLB	32	MLBBOS	12	0	13	4.76	4.93	15.9%	9.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo62

K%17

Form1.80 ERA (proj 4.31) · K 13.8% (proj 16.2%) · BB 7.5% (proj 8.5%) · last 90d · 20 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJohn Rheinecker (age 28) · Kelvin Marte (age 29) · Kyle Hunter (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.31

FIP4.48

K%16.2%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p1016.4%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.272

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	12	7	25	96	33	2	0	58%	2.1	23.4%	2.6%	20.8%	0.0%	2.88	1.46	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	12	7	25	96	33	2	0	58%	2.1	34.4%	2.1%	32.3%	0.0%	2.88	0.70	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	22	11	77	329	71	30	9	50%	3.5	16.6%	10.5%	6.1%	3.7%	4.21	5.04	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	22	11	77	329	71	30	9	50%	3.5	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	2.7%	4.21	3.94	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	30	6	88	395	72	47	11	20%	2.9	14.8%	13.1%	1.7%	3.4%	5.91	5.36	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	30	6	88	395	72	47	11	20%	2.9	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	2.8%	5.91	4.68	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	3	76	326	76	48	5	8%	2.1	19.5%	14.4%	5.1%	1.7%	3.66	4.20	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	3	76	326	76	48	5	8%	2.1	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	1.5%	3.66	3.85	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	22	12	74	316	51	31	3	55%	3.3	13.9%	8.8%	5.1%	1.2%	3.30	3.69	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	22	12	74	316	51	31	3	55%	3.3	13.9%	8.8%	5.1%	1.2%	3.30	3.69	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	22	12	74	316	51	31	3	55%	3.3	16.1%	9.8%	6.3%	0.9%	3.30	3.51	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	8	2	19	83	12	12	0	25%	2.4	12.4%	13.0%	-0.6%	0.0%	4.19	3.70	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	8	2	19	83	12	12	0	25%	2.4	12.4%	13.0%	-0.6%	0.0%	4.19	3.70	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	8	2	19	83	12	12	0	25%	2.4	14.5%	14.5%	0.0%	0.0%	4.19	3.72	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	11	84	341	70	24	8	29%	2.2	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	2.6%	2.99	3.78	+0.8
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	11	84	341	70	24	8	29%	2.2	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	2.6%	2.99	3.78	+0.8
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	11	84	341	70	24	8	29%	2.2	20.5%	7.0%	13.5%	2.3%	2.99	3.53	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	3	33	132	23	11	1	14%	1.6	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	0.8%	1.91	3.10	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BOS	29	0	30	127	21	11	3	0%	1.0	16.2%	8.5%	7.7%	2.4%	4.31	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BOS	24	0	25	106	17	10	3	0%	1.1	16.2%	8.9%	7.2%	2.6%	4.54	4.70	-0.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	BOS	15	0	16	67	11	6	2	0%	1.1	15.9%	9.4%	6.6%	2.9%	4.76	4.93	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	BOS	19	0	20	84	14	8	2	0%	1.1	16.2%	8.9%	7.2%	2.6%	4.54	4.70	-0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	BOS	12	0	13	55	9	5	2	0%	1.1	15.9%	9.4%	6.6%	2.9%	4.76	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	3	67	274	46	24	5	6%	1.3	16.7%	8.7%	8.0%	1.8%	3.28	3.78	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		159	9	200	822	138	72	15	6%	1.3	16.7%	8.7%	8.0%	1.8%	3.28	3.78	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		169	52	444	1886	317	197	43	31%	2.6	16.8%	10.5%	6.3%	2.3%	3.99	4.27	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	23	200	850	143	89	20	31%	2.6	16.8%	10.5%	6.3%	2.3%	3.99	4.27	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 51 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.20 (+0.37)K% 22.5% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.49%	—	×0.860	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.22%	—	×0.900	5.60%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 19 IPFIP 3.71 → 3.70 (−0.01)K% 14.5% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.46%	—	×0.860	12.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.46%	—	×0.900	13.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.956	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.71 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 74 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.69 (+0.19)K% 16.1% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.14%	—	×0.860	13.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.81%	—	×0.900	8.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷0.896	×1.100	1.17%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 40 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.18 (+0.16)K% 23.5% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.50%	—	×0.860	20.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.85%	—	×0.900	14.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.006	×1.100	1.79%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATulsa Drillers · 36 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.22 (+0.62)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.810	18.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.29%	—	×1.100	14.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷1.083	×1.200	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATulsa Drillers · 88 IPFIP 4.60 → 5.36 (+0.76)K% 18.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.23%	—	×0.810	14.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×1.100	13.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.993	×1.200	3.36%

Result: FIP 4.60 → 5.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Great Lakes Loons · 77 IPFIP 3.93 → 5.04 (+1.11)K% 21.6% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.58%	—	×0.770	16.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.12%	—	×1.150	10.49%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷0.930	×1.250	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Dodgers Lasorda · 25 IPFIP 0.46 → 1.46 (+0.99)K% 34.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.680	23.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.08%	—	×1.250	2.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.46 → 1.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alec Gamboa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	16.2%	8.5%	2.4%	—	4.79	16.1%	7.0%	41	+0.31	—	—	—
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	74
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	73
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	73
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	71
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	71
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	70
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	70
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	69
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	69
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	68
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	67
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	66
Bobby Jones L 2002 · 5.24 FIP	30	SU	5.24	14.3%	12.7%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	321	65
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	64
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	64
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	63
Tom Martin L 2000 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	14.7%	9.1%	2.1%	.274	4.29	21.8%	12.3%	68	+0.12	3.40	303	63
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	62
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	62
Luis Perez L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	30	SU	4.00	15.2%	12.6%	1.1%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	173	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	29	16.5%	8.7%	0.80	3.73
Ramon Troncoso ('13)	1.1	45	16.0%	8.5%	0.83	4.00
Mark Dewey ('90-'96, 3 WAR*)	1.2	42	18.7%*	9.6%*	0.80*	3.89*
Javy Guerra ('21)	1.5	50	18.5%	9.1%	0.86	3.98
Blaine Hardy ('21)	1.5	48	18.5%	8.3%	0.99	3.78
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Bill Landrum ('86-'93, 4 WAR*)	1.8	60	18.2%*	8.1%*	0.64*	3.86*