Jared Beck — OGILVIE

Jared Beck P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 26 LHP 7'0" / 225 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127136vR 144

ERA5.82

FIP5.82

K%22.2%

BB%20.6%

K-BB%1.6%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	10	45	10	5	0	0%	2.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	3.60	2.63	—
2022	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	10	45	10	5	0	0%	2.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	3.60	2.60	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	12	75	347	98	47	4	52%	3.3	21.1%	15.9%	5.2%	1.5%	4.30	4.15	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	12	75	347	98	47	4	52%	3.3	21.1%	15.9%	5.2%	1.5%	4.30	4.15	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	12	75	347	98	47	4	52%	3.3	28.2%	13.5%	14.7%	1.2%	4.30	3.06	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	46	218	64	44	3	0%	1.4	22.0%	24.3%	-2.3%	1.6%	4.86	5.17	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	46	218	64	44	3	0%	1.4	22.0%	24.3%	-2.3%	1.6%	4.86	5.17	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	46	218	64	44	3	0%	1.4	29.4%	20.2%	9.2%	1.4%	4.86	4.03	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	23	116	29	29	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	26.9%	-5.3%	3.7%	4.24	6.70	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	23	116	29	29	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	26.9%	-5.3%	3.7%	4.24	6.70	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	23	116	29	29	3	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	2.6%	4.24	6.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	19	0	28	150	34	45	2	0%	1.5	16.8%	35.4%	-18.6%	1.7%	7.48	7.12	—
YTD	26	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	19	0	28	150	34	45	2	0%	1.5	16.8%	35.4%	-18.6%	1.7%	7.48	7.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A RAW	WSH	19	0	28	150	34	45	2	0%	1.5	22.7%	30.0%	-7.3%	1.3%	7.48	5.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	39	0	41	174	39	34	5	0%	1.1	22.3%	19.5%	2.7%	3.0%	5.69	5.71	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	14	0	15	63	14	12	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	19.5%	2.7%	3.0%	5.69	5.71	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	14	12	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	19.5%	2.7%	3.0%	5.69	5.33	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	161	27	0%	1.1	22.3%	19.5%	2.7%	3.0%	5.69	5.33	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		102	12	183	876	181	197	15	12%	1.8	20.7%	22.5%	-1.8%	1.8%	4.88	5.17	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	13	200	959	198	216	17	12%	1.8	20.7%	22.5%	-1.8%	1.8%	4.88	5.17	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.82	22.2%	20.6%	2.9%	—	5.71	22.3%	2.7%	41	-0.11	—	—	—
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	85
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	82
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	81
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	81
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	80
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	80
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	79
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	78
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	77
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	77
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	77
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	76
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	76
Cody Beckman L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	26	SU	5.27	19.3%	14.9%	3.5%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	189	74
Cam Booser L 2016 · 6.61 FIP	24	SU	6.61	19.8%	28.0%	3.0%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	309	74
Yoan Aybar L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	20.9%	19.7%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	166	73
Brendan Cellucci L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	21.2%	14.6%	3.3%	.381	4.25	23.2%	9.2%	137	-0.74	3.98	288	73
Anderson Polanco L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	18.9%	16.3%	2.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	73
Hunter Schryver L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	21.0%	14.1%	3.2%	.294	4.00	17.7%	4.9%	37	-0.88	3.58	206	72
Max Schuh L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	25	SU	4.70	19.2%	13.6%	2.7%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	118	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	22.2%	19.9%	1.14	5.73
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15