Joel Valdez

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 181 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	A+NYY	25	13	79	6.06	4.79	22.3%	15.1%	—	K 17.1% · BB 17.4% · FIP 5.73
2024	24	A+NYY	36	0	58	3.41	2.79	28.6%	11.5%	—	K 22.0% · BB 13.2% · FIP 3.71
2025	25	MIX2 levels	35	0	58	2.34	2.53	26.9%	10.0%	—	K 22.0% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.12
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBCIN	1	0	1	4.39	4.39	22.5%	10.7%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCIN	20	0	21	4.44	4.47	22.5%	10.7%	0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCIN	26	0	27	4.52	4.59	22.3%	10.8%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control45Command55

CompsHector Hernandez (age 28) · Mark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Ryan Verdugo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%22.5%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	4	20	106	16	16	0	36%	1.8	10.3%	18.9%	-8.6%	0.0%	5.31	4.62	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	11	4	20	106	16	16	0	36%	1.8	15.1%	15.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.31	3.89	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	15	15	55	220	54	16	0	100%	3.7	16.7%	9.1%	7.6%	0.0%	1.63	2.84	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	15	15	55	220	54	16	0	100%	3.7	24.5%	7.3%	17.3%	0.0%	1.63	2.02	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	54	232	80	32	2	100%	4.1	24.4%	16.8%	7.6%	1.1%	3.52	3.78	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	54	232	80	32	2	100%	4.1	34.5%	13.8%	20.7%	0.9%	3.52	2.39	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	25	13	79	364	81	55	10	52%	3.1	17.1%	17.4%	-0.2%	3.4%	6.06	5.73	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	25	13	79	364	81	55	10	52%	3.1	22.3%	15.1%	7.1%	2.7%	6.06	4.79	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	36	0	58	252	72	29	3	0%	1.6	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	1.4%	3.41	3.71	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	36	0	58	252	72	29	3	0%	1.6	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	1.4%	3.41	3.71	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	36	0	58	252	72	29	3	0%	1.6	28.6%	11.5%	17.1%	1.2%	3.41	2.79	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	58	249	67	25	2	0%	1.6	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	1.0%	2.34	3.12	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	58	249	67	25	2	0%	1.6	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	1.0%	2.34	3.12	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	58	249	67	25	2	0%	1.6	26.9%	10.0%	16.9%	0.8%	2.34	2.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CIN	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.7%	11.9%	2.7%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	53	0	56	236	53	25	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.7%	11.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.47	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	46	0	48	203	45	22	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.59	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	20	0	21	89	20	9	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.7%	11.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.47	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	26	0	27	114	25	12	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	48	202	45	22	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	2.9%	4.48	4.16	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	92	25	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	2.9%	4.48	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		135	45	324	1423	277	202	21	33%	2.4	19.5%	14.2%	5.3%	1.5%	3.70	4.07	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	28	200	879	171	125	13	33%	2.4	19.5%	14.2%	5.3%	1.5%	3.70	4.07	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 46 IPFIP 2.28 → 2.93 (+0.64)K% 28.8% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.80%	—	×0.810	23.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.47%	—	×1.100	11.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.52%	÷1.021	×1.200	0.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.28 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 12 IPFIP 3.39 → 3.73 (+0.34)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.860	17.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×0.900	7.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷0.901	×1.100	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 58 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.71 (+0.91)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.770	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.51%	—	×1.150	13.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.032	×1.250	1.44%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 79 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.73 (+1.08)K% 22.3% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.25%	—	×0.770	17.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.11%	—	×1.150	17.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.006	×1.250	3.41%

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Yankees · 28 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.87 (+1.53)K% 35.2% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.25%	—	×0.680	23.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.93%	—	×1.250	17.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷1.066	×1.400	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ATampa Tarpons · 26 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.67 (+1.18)K% 33.6% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.64%	—	×0.740	24.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.180	16.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.91%	÷1.026	×1.300	1.15%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Phillies Red · 55 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.84 (+0.89)K% 24.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.55%	—	×0.680	16.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.250	9.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.096	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKDSL Phillies White · 20 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.62 (+0.89)K% 15.1% → 10.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.09%	—	×0.680	10.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.09%	—	×1.250	18.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	22.5%	10.7%	2.7%	—	4.53	22.4%	11.7%	104	+0.14	—	—	—
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	78
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	77
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	77
Tommy Vail L 2024 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	27.5%	15.3%	1.7%	.237	5.19	19.5%	2.9%	99	+1.54	3.65	168	76
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	75
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	74
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	73
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	73
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	72
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	72
Colton Turner L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	27	SU	3.27	21.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.235	4.23	22.4%	13.2%	94	+0.96	2.79	325	71
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	70
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	70
Chad Bell L 2016 · 3.39 FIP	27	SW	3.39	18.8%	9.7%	1.2%	.307	4.50	19.2%	10.8%	153	+1.11	3.39	393	70
Mike Matthews L 2001 · 4.09 FIP	27	SW	4.09	19.6%	7.9%	3.0%	.246	4.55	15.0%	4.6%	140	+0.46	3.64	239	70
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	70
Josh Outman L 2012 · 4.49 FIP	27	SW	4.49	21.6%	10.8%	3.4%	.339	3.46	22.0%	12.2%	82	-1.03	2.95	380	69
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	69
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	69
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	22.5%	10.7%	1.08	4.44
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*