Joel Valdez — OGILVIE

Joel Valdez P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 181 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%21.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

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K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	4	20	106	16	16	0	36%	1.8	10.3%	18.9%	-8.6%	0.0%	5.31	4.62	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	11	4	20	106	16	16	0	36%	1.8	15.1%	15.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.31	3.89	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	15	15	55	220	54	16	0	100%	3.7	16.7%	9.1%	7.6%	0.0%	1.63	2.84	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	15	15	55	220	54	16	0	100%	3.7	24.5%	7.3%	17.3%	0.0%	1.63	2.02	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	54	232	80	32	2	100%	4.1	24.4%	16.8%	7.6%	1.1%	3.52	3.78	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	54	232	80	32	2	100%	4.1	34.5%	13.8%	20.7%	0.9%	3.52	2.39	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	25	13	79	364	81	55	10	52%	3.1	17.1%	17.4%	-0.2%	3.4%	6.06	5.73	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	25	13	79	364	81	55	10	52%	3.1	17.1%	17.4%	-0.2%	3.4%	6.06	5.73	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	25	13	79	364	81	55	10	52%	3.1	22.3%	15.1%	7.1%	2.7%	6.06	4.79	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	36	0	58	252	72	29	3	0%	1.6	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	1.4%	3.41	3.71	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	36	0	58	252	72	29	3	0%	1.6	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	1.4%	3.41	3.71	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	36	0	58	252	72	29	3	0%	1.6	28.6%	11.5%	17.1%	1.2%	3.41	2.79	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	58	249	67	25	2	0%	1.6	21.9%	10.6%	11.2%	1.0%	2.34	3.13	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	58	249	67	25	2	0%	1.6	21.9%	10.6%	11.2%	1.0%	2.34	3.13	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	58	249	67	25	2	0%	1.6	26.9%	10.0%	16.9%	0.8%	2.34	2.53	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CIN	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.9%	10.0%	2.5%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	66	0	69	291	64	34	7	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	2.6%	4.49	4.51	+0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	64	0	67	282	62	33	8	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.54	4.58	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	270	59	32	8	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.69	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	25	0	26	110	24	13	3	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	2.6%	4.49	4.51	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	38	0	40	169	37	20	5	0%	1.1	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.54	4.58	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	43	0	45	190	41	22	5	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	103	55	13	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	2.7%	4.56	4.23	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	99	23	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	2.7%	4.56	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		135	45	324	1423	277	202	21	33%	2.4	19.4%	14.2%	5.2%	1.5%	3.70	4.07	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	28	200	879	171	125	13	33%	2.4	19.4%	14.2%	5.2%	1.5%	3.70	4.07	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	21.8%	11.9%	2.5%	—	4.59	21.9%	10.2%	200	+0.10	—	—	—
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	82
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	80
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	80
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	79
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	78
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.70	15.6%	-1.7%	46	-0.57	4.17	315	78
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	77
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	76
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	76
Adam Wolf L 2023 · 3.95 FIP	26	SW	3.95	17.2%	11.5%	1.5%	.257	5.00	15.2%	6.5%	24	+1.05	3.91	383	75
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	75
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	75
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	75
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	74
Tyler Holton L 2022 · 4.30 FIP	26	SU	4.30	20.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.288	3.67	21.7%	16.8%	258	-0.63	2.97	436	74
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	74
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	73
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	73
Rob Zastryzny L 2018 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	18.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.264	4.81	19.8%	10.8%	142	+0.50	3.34	634	73
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	21.9%	11.7%	1.02	4.54
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93