Joel Valdez
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 181 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%22.1%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 11 | 4 | 20 | 106 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 36% | 1.8 | 10.3% | 18.9% | -8.6% | 0.0% | 5.31 | 4.62 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 11 | 4 | 20 | 106 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 36% | 1.8 | 15.1% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.31 | 3.89 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 15 | 15 | 55 | 220 | 54 | 16 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 1.63 | 2.84 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 15 | 15 | 55 | 220 | 54 | 16 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | 24.5% | 7.3% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 1.63 | 2.02 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 54 | 232 | 80 | 32 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 24.4% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 1.1% | 3.52 | 3.75 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 54 | 232 | 80 | 32 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 34.5% | 13.8% | 20.7% | 0.9% | 3.52 | 2.39 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 25 | 13 | 79 | 364 | 81 | 55 | 10 | 52% | 3.1 | 17.1% | 17.4% | -0.2% | 3.4% | 6.06 | 5.72 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 25 | 13 | 79 | 364 | 81 | 55 | 10 | 52% | 3.1 | 22.3% | 15.1% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 6.06 | 4.79 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 36 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 72 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 1.4% | 3.41 | 3.69 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 36 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 72 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.6% | 11.5% | 17.1% | 1.2% | 3.41 | 2.79 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 58 | 249 | 67 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 1.0% | 2.34 | 3.17 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 58 | 249 | 67 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 0.8% | 2.34 | 2.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 65 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 65 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 63 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 62 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.10 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 94 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 135 | 45 | 324 | 1423 | 277 | 203 | 21 | 33% | 2.4 | 19.5% | 14.3% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 3.70 | 4.07 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 28 | 200 | 879 | 171 | 125 | 13 | 33% | 2.4 | 19.5% | 14.3% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 3.70 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Valdez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 2.5% | — | 4.47 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 136 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 86 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 82 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 80 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 80 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 79 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 77 |
| Adam Scott L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.27 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 4.1% | .317 | 4.96 | 16.5% | -3.6% | 46 | -0.31 | 4.53 | 315 | 77 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 77 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 76 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 76 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.39 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 1.2% | .270 | 5.11 | 12.6% | 1.9% | 129 | +1.72 | 3.39 | 261 | 76 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .264 | 5.63 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.74 | 3.12 | 451 | 75 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 75 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 258 | 75 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 4.99 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.11 | 3.88 | 256 | 75 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 17.2% | 11.5% | 1.5% | .257 | 5.13 | 15.2% | 6.5% | 24 | +1.22 | 3.91 | 383 | 75 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .288 | 3.75 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.61 | 3.02 | 409 | 74 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 74 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 74 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 0.7% | .312 | 4.62 | 17.8% | 3.7% | 76 | +1.19 | 3.43 | 134 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 1.00 | 4.43 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |