Joel Valdez
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 181 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.5%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 11 | 4 | 20 | 106 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 10.3% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 5.31 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 15 | 15 | 55 | 220 | 54 | 16 | 0 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 1.63 | 2.84 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 13 | 13 | 54 | 232 | 80 | 32 | 2 | 24.4% | 16.8% | 1.1% | 3.52 | 3.76 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 25 | 13 | 79 | 364 | 81 | 55 | 10 | 17.1% | 17.4% | 3.4% | 6.06 | 5.73 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 36 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 72 | 29 | 3 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 1.4% | 3.41 | 3.70 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 35 | 0 | 58 | 249 | 67 | 25 | 2 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 1.0% | 2.34 | 3.15 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 56 | 27 | 6 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 56 | 27 | 6 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 55 | 26 | 6 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 54 | 26 | 6 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 52 | 25 | 6 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 50 | 24 | 6 | 21.9% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 47 | 24 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 44 | 23 | 6 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 41 | 22 | 6 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 20.6% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 35 | 20 | 6 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 45 | 324 | 1423 | 277 | 203 | 21 | 19.5% | 14.3% | 1.5% | 3.70 | 4.07 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 28 | 200 | 879 | 171 | 125 | 13 | 19.5% | 14.3% | 1.5% | 3.70 | 4.07 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Valdez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.35 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 175 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 93 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 89 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 88 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 88 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 87 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 85 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .368 | 3.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.27 | 3.02 | 153 | 85 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 85 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 85 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 85 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.59 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.75 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +2.16 | 3.29 | 142 | 85 |
| Luis González L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.33 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .290 | 5.07 | 24.6% | 16.7% | 74 | +1.74 | 3.19 | 416 | 84 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .257 | 4.72 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.81 | 2.70 | 655 | 84 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .226 | 5.06 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.32 | 2.02 | 280 | 84 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 84 |
| Jake Diekman L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 84 |
| Andrew Magno L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 3.23 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 66 | -1.27 | 3.23 | 275 | 84 |
| Carson Skipper L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 83 |
| Mitch Horacek L 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 23.8% | 11.6% | 1.2% | .313 | 4.68 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 64 | +1.44 | 3.24 | 466 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $5M | $8M | +$3M | ||