Julian Smith — OGILVIE

Julian Smith P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%23.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Mota	14	6	47	216	46	30	2	43%	3.3	14.5%	17.4%	-2.9%	1.3%	5.98	4.79	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Mota	14	6	47	216	46	30	2	43%	3.3	21.3%	13.9%	7.4%	0.9%	5.98	3.61	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	59	274	66	23	5	0%	1.8	18.0%	9.8%	8.1%	2.5%	6.56	4.18	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	59	274	66	23	5	0%	1.8	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	1.8%	6.56	3.13	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	39	0	51	234	54	30	11	0%	1.3	17.8%	14.7%	3.0%	5.8%	5.29	6.65	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	39	0	51	234	54	30	11	0%	1.3	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	4.7%	5.29	5.55	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	32	133	42	15	0	0%	1.7	23.2%	13.6%	9.5%	0.0%	3.90	2.87	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	32	133	42	15	0	0%	1.7	23.2%	13.6%	9.5%	0.0%	3.90	2.87	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	32	133	42	15	0	0%	1.7	31.6%	11.3%	20.3%	0.0%	3.90	1.89	—
2024	27	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	8	0	6	33	4	10	0	0%	0.8	12.1%	30.3%	-18.2%	0.0%	15.00	5.91	—
2024	27	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	8	0	6	33	4	10	0	0%	0.8	12.1%	30.3%	-18.2%	0.0%	15.00	5.91	—
2024	27	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	8	0	6	33	4	10	0	0%	0.8	12.1%	30.3%	-18.2%	0.0%	15.00	6.77	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYM	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	19	0	20	84	19	9	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.8%	12.3%	3.2%	4.56	4.63	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.8%	12.3%	3.2%	4.56	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.8%	12.3%	3.2%	4.56	4.25	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	99	33	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.8%	12.3%	3.2%	4.56	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		112	6	195	890	157	127	23	5%	1.7	17.6%	14.3%	3.3%	2.6%	5.91	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	6	200	913	161	130	24	5%	1.7	17.6%	14.3%	3.3%	2.6%	5.91	4.85	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julian Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	23.4%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.63	23.0%	12.3%	20	+0.16	—	—	—
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	79
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	78
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	77
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	77
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	76
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	76
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	74
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	74
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	74
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	73
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	73
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	73
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	73
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	72
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	72
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	71
Felix Doubront L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	23.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.304	3.44	17.6%	12.6%	126	-0.68	3.44	291	71
Dario Alvarez L 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	20.7%	12.4%	1.0%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	160	70
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	70
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	70