Dominic Scheffler

Dominic Scheffler P Daytona Tortugas

Age 22 LHP 6'4" / 196 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 145

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%19.7%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.3%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	6	28	145	42	33	1	50%	2.4	19.7%	28.4%	-8.8%	0.9%	7.62	5.54	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	6	28	145	42	33	1	50%	2.4	19.7%	28.4%	-8.8%	0.9%	7.62	5.54	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	6	28	145	42	33	1	50%	2.4	29.0%	22.8%	6.2%	0.7%	7.62	4.09	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	34	167	38	27	1	0%	1.8	15.9%	19.5%	-3.6%	0.7%	9.36	4.59	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	34	167	38	27	1	0%	1.8	15.9%	19.5%	-3.6%	0.7%	9.36	4.59	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	34	167	38	27	1	0%	1.8	22.8%	16.2%	6.6%	0.6%	9.36	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	0	48	228	50	40	4	0%	1.9	16.2%	20.7%	-4.5%	2.3%	5.03	5.60	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	0	48	228	50	40	4	0%	1.9	16.2%	20.7%	-4.5%	2.3%	5.03	5.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CIN	25	0	48	228	50	40	4	0%	1.9	21.9%	17.5%	4.4%	1.8%	5.03	4.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	47	0	49	207	43	35	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	16.8%	4.2%	2.8%	5.51	5.36	-0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	48	0	50	212	46	31	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	14.6%	7.1%	2.8%	5.18	5.02	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	23	0	24	101	21	17	3	0%	1.0	21.0%	16.8%	4.2%	2.8%	5.51	5.36	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	33	0	35	148	32	22	4	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.6%	7.1%	2.8%	5.18	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	250	54	39	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	15.5%	5.9%	2.8%	5.31	4.78	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	132	24	0%	1.1	21.4%	15.5%	5.9%	2.8%	5.31	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		56	6	110	540	92	121	8	11%	2.0	17.0%	22.4%	-5.3%	1.4%	7.02	5.27	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	11	200	979	167	219	14	11%	2.0	17.0%	22.4%	-5.3%	1.4%	7.02	5.27	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dominic Scheffler (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	19.7%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.19	21.3%	5.7%	99	-0.71	—	—	—
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	85
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	84
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	84
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	84
Felix Polanco L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	22	SU	5.19	18.7%	19.9%	2.1%	.290	3.68	18.8%	12.8%	27	-1.51	3.68	105	83
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	83
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	82
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	82
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	81
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	81
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	81
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	81
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	80
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	79
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	79
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	79
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	78
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	78
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	77
Alex Katz L 2017 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	14.4%	18.0%	1.7%	.314	4.48	16.3%	1.2%	56	-0.63	2.69	240	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	21.1%	16.4%	1.08	5.43
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48