Dominic Scheffler

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 196 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKCIN	12	6	28	7.62	4.09	29.0%	22.8%	—	K 19.7% · BB 28.4% · FIP 5.54
2025	21	MIX2 levels	19	0	34	9.36	3.63	22.8%	16.2%	—	K 15.9% · BB 19.5% · FIP 4.59
2026	22	ACIN	25	0	48	5.03	4.59	21.9%	17.5%	—	K 16.2% · BB 20.7% · FIP 5.60
2027PROJ	23	MLBCIN	—	—	0	5.96	5.96	18.4%	19.5%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCIN	12	0	13	5.58	5.44	19.8%	16.4%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsNicolo Pinazzi (age 23) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24) · Austin Hamilton (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130138vR 146

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%18.4%

BB%19.5%

K-BB%-1.1%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	6	28	145	42	33	1	50%	2.4	19.7%	28.4%	-8.8%	0.9%	7.62	5.54	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	6	28	145	42	33	1	50%	2.4	19.7%	28.4%	-8.8%	0.9%	7.62	5.54	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	6	28	145	42	33	1	50%	2.4	29.0%	22.8%	6.2%	0.7%	7.62	4.09	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	34	167	38	27	1	0%	1.8	15.9%	19.5%	-3.6%	0.7%	9.36	4.59	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	34	167	38	27	1	0%	1.8	15.9%	19.5%	-3.6%	0.7%	9.36	4.59	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	34	167	38	27	1	0%	1.8	22.8%	16.2%	6.6%	0.6%	9.36	3.63	—
2026	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	0	48	228	50	40	4	0%	1.9	16.2%	20.7%	-4.5%	2.3%	5.03	5.60	—
2026	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	0	48	228	50	40	4	0%	1.9	16.2%	20.7%	-4.5%	2.3%	5.03	5.60	—
2026	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	0	48	228	50	40	4	0%	1.9	21.9%	17.5%	4.4%	1.8%	5.03	4.59	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.4%	19.5%	-1.1%	2.8%	5.96	5.96	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	30	0	31	133	26	22	4	0%	1.0	19.8%	16.4%	3.4%	2.8%	5.58	5.44	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	12	0	13	55	11	9	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	16.4%	3.4%	2.8%	5.58	5.44	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	57	11	9	2	0%	1.0	19.8%	16.4%	3.4%	2.8%	5.58	5.06	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	134	30	0%	1.1	19.8%	16.4%	3.4%	2.8%	5.58	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		56	6	110	540	92	121	8	11%	2.0	17.0%	22.4%	-5.3%	1.4%	7.02	5.27	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	11	200	979	167	219	14	11%	2.0	17.0%	22.4%	-5.3%	1.4%	7.02	5.27	-2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 48 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.60 (+1.17)K% 21.9% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.93%	—	×0.740	16.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.54%	—	×1.180	20.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.28%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Reds · 26 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.54 (+0.97)K% 24.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.680	16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.250	10.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.90%	÷1.252	×1.400	1.01%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 7 IPFIP 5.51 → 6.68 (+1.16)K% 19.6% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.64%	—	×0.740	14.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	32.14%	—	×1.180	37.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.032	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 5.51 → 6.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Reds · 28 IPFIP 3.92 → 5.54 (+1.62)K% 29.0% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.97%	—	×0.680	19.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.76%	—	×1.250	28.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷1.063	×1.400	0.91%

Result: FIP 3.92 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dominic Scheffler (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.96	18.4%	19.5%	2.8%	—	5.44	19.8%	3.4%	31	-0.52	—	—	—
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	86
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	85
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	85
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	84
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	84
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	84
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	83
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	82
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	82
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.06	18.5%	7.5%	165	-1.72	3.79	281	81
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	81
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	80
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	80
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	80
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	79
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	79
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	79
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	79
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	78
Jeff Wallace L 2000 · 5.61 FIP	24	SU	5.61	14.6%	17.8%	2.7%	.308	4.73	16.9%	0.5%	50	-0.88	2.51	137	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	19.2%	17.8%	1.10	5.75
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*