Dillon Larsen
P Amarillo Sod Poodles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | MIX2 levels | 24 | 0 | 34 | 4.72 | 4.35 | 26.7% | 18.7% | — | K 21.7% · BB 21.6% · FIP 5.90 | |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX2 levels | 41 | 0 | 70 | 5.01 | 4.34 | 24.0% | 20.8% | — | K 18.8% · BB 23.4% · FIP 4.83 | |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX3 levels | 21 | 1 | 33 | 4.68 | 3.65 | 20.5% | 17.8% | — | K 15.5% · BB 17.8% · FIP 4.04 | |
| 2025 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBARI | — | — | 0 | 4.71 | 4.71 | 21.6% | 11.4% | — | ||
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 30 | MLBARI | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4.78 | 4.85 | 21.4% | 11.5% | -0.0 | ||
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 24 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 34 | 150 | 40 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 0.1% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 5.90 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 34 | 150 | 40 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.7% | 18.7% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 4.72 | 4.35 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 70 | 337 | 81 | 70 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 23.4% | -4.6% | 0.7% | 5.01 | 4.83 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 70 | 337 | 81 | 70 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 24.0% | 20.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 5.01 | 4.34 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 21 | 1 | 33 | 146 | 30 | 26 | 0 | 5% | 1.6 | 15.5% | 17.8% | -2.2% | 0.0% | 4.68 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 21 | 1 | 33 | 146 | 30 | 26 | 0 | 5% | 1.6 | 15.5% | 17.8% | -2.2% | 0.0% | 4.68 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 21 | 1 | 33 | 146 | 30 | 26 | 0 | 5% | 1.6 | 20.5% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 4.68 | 3.65 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.6% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.71 | — |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | ARI | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | ARI | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.47 | +0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 113 | 38 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.47 | +0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 86 | 1 | 137 | 633 | 119 | 137 | 7 | 1% | 1.6 | 18.7% | 21.7% | -2.9% | 1.2% | 4.86 | 4.90 | -0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 126 | 1 | 200 | 924 | 173 | 200 | 11 | 1% | 1.6 | 18.7% | 21.7% | -2.9% | 1.2% | 4.86 | 4.90 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 21 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.04 (+0.51)K% 19.2% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 19.19% | — | ×0.810 | 15.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 16.16% | — | ×1.100 | 17.78% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.229 | ×1.200 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).
Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL D-backs · 9 IPFIP 4.25 → 5.41 (+1.16)K% 18.2% → 12.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 18.18% | — | ×0.680 | 12.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 21.21% | — | ×1.250 | 26.52% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷0.875 | ×1.400 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).
Result: FIP 4.25 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 42 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.07 (+0.88)K% 27.1% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 27.09% | — | ×0.770 | 20.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 18.72% | — | ×1.150 | 21.53% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷0.952 | ×1.250 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).
Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 28 IPFIP 5.72 → 6.00 (+0.29)K% 19.4% → 15.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 19.40% | — | ×0.810 | 15.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 23.88% | — | ×1.100 | 26.27% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.24% | ÷1.637 | ×1.200 | 1.64% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 227).
Result: FIP 5.72 → 6.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 29 IPFIP 4.39 → 5.90 (+1.51)K% 28.1% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 28.12% | — | ×0.770 | 21.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 18.75% | — | ×1.150 | 21.56% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.34% | ÷0.848 | ×1.250 | 3.46% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).
Result: FIP 4.39 → 5.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 5 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.39 (+0.52)K% 18.2% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 18.18% | — | ×0.810 | 14.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 18.18% | — | ×1.100 | 20.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.094 | ×1.200 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).
Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).