Dillon Larsen
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%10.1%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 24 | 0 | 34 | 150 | 40 | 28 | 3 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 5.84 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 41 | 0 | 70 | 337 | 81 | 70 | 3 | 18.8% | 23.4% | 0.6% | 5.01 | 4.82 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 21 | 1 | 33 | 146 | 30 | 26 | 0 | 15.5% | 17.8% | 0.0% | 4.68 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 28 | — | 28 | 117 | 26 | 14 | 3 | 22.0% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 27 | — | 27 | 115 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 22.0% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 86 | 1 | 137 | 633 | 119 | 137 | 7 | 18.7% | 21.7% | 1.1% | 4.86 | 4.88 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 126 | 1 | 200 | 924 | 174 | 200 | 10 | 18.7% | 21.7% | 1.1% | 4.86 | 4.88 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dillon Larsen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 22.0% | 11.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.63 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 27 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 85 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 83 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 83 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 81 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 81 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 81 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 80 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 79 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 79 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.05 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 246 | 79 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 79 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 79 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 244 | 78 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 78 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 78 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 78 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 77 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 77 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 76 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.