Dillon Larsen — OGILVIE

Dillon Larsen P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 28 LHP 6'5" / 230 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.52

FIP5.52

K%19.3%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%2.1%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	34	150	40	28	3	0%	1.4	21.7%	21.6%	0.1%	3.5%	4.72	5.90	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	34	150	40	28	3	0%	1.4	26.7%	18.7%	8.0%	2.0%	4.72	4.35	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	70	337	81	70	3	0%	1.7	18.8%	23.4%	-4.6%	0.7%	5.01	4.83	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	70	337	81	70	3	0%	1.7	18.8%	23.4%	-4.6%	0.7%	5.01	4.83	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	70	337	81	70	3	0%	1.7	24.0%	20.8%	3.3%	0.9%	5.01	4.34	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	33	146	30	26	0	5%	1.6	15.5%	17.8%	-2.2%	0.0%	4.68	4.04	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	33	146	30	26	0	5%	1.6	15.5%	17.8%	-2.2%	0.0%	4.68	4.04	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	33	146	30	26	0	5%	1.6	20.5%	17.8%	2.7%	0.0%	4.68	3.65	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	ARI	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.3%	17.2%	2.1%	2.7%	5.52	5.52	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	16	14	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	16.6%	2.8%	2.9%	5.48	5.53	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	ARI	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	16.6%	2.8%	2.9%	5.48	5.53	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	4	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	16.6%	2.8%	2.9%	5.48	5.15	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	128	32	0%	1.1	19.4%	16.6%	2.8%	2.9%	5.48	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		86	1	137	633	119	137	7	1%	1.6	18.7%	21.7%	-2.9%	1.2%	4.86	4.90	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	1	200	924	173	200	11	1%	1.6	18.7%	21.7%	-2.9%	1.2%	4.86	4.90	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dillon Larsen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.52	19.3%	17.2%	2.7%	—	5.53	19.4%	2.8%	20	+0.01	—	—	—
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	81
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	77
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	76
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.90	18.7%	4.0%	103	+0.49	3.16	199	76
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	76
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	75
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	75
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	74
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	74
R.C. Orlan L 2019 · 6.15 FIP	28	SU	6.15	13.8%	19.5%	3.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	1.71	206	73
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	72
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	72
Joey Marciano L 2023 · 4.96 FIP	28	SU	4.96	19.3%	17.3%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	330	71
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	71
Cam Booser L 2022 · 6.54 FIP	30	SU	6.54	20.8%	20.7%	4.7%	.350	4.52	24.3%	14.8%	157	-2.02	2.96	309	71
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	71
Evan Lee L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	26	SU	5.38	17.2%	25.3%	0.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	129	70
Austin Briggs L 2023 · 4.40 FIP	27	SU	4.40	19.8%	18.0%	1.3%	.307	5.31	12.0%	-7.1%	32	+0.91	3.62	187	70
Anthony Gose L 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	19.2%	22.5%	0.0%	.250	4.70	30.1%	12.6%	54	+0.37	3.85	219	70
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	70