Dillon Larsen
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 28
LHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 123
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
K%22.0%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%10.1%
ROS IP19
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 34 | 150 | 40 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 0.1% | 4.2% | 4.72 | 6.31 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 34 | 150 | 40 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.7% | 18.7% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 4.72 | 4.35 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 70 | 337 | 81 | 70 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 23.4% | -4.6% | 0.5% | 5.01 | 4.73 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 70 | 337 | 81 | 70 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 24.0% | 20.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 5.01 | 4.34 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 1 | 33 | 146 | 30 | 26 | 0 | 5% | 1.6 | 15.5% | 17.8% | -2.2% | 0.0% | 4.68 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 1 | 33 | 146 | 30 | 26 | 0 | 5% | 1.6 | 20.5% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 4.68 | 3.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 0 | 19 | 82 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.34 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 86 | 1 | 137 | 633 | 119 | 137 | 8 | 1% | 1.6 | 18.7% | 21.7% | -2.9% | 1.2% | 4.86 | 4.95 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 126 | 1 | 200 | 924 | 173 | 200 | 12 | 1% | 1.6 | 18.7% | 21.7% | -2.9% | 1.2% | 4.86 | 4.95 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dillon Larsen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 22.0% | 11.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.72 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 20 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 82 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 82 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 80 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 79 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 79 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 79 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 79 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 78 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 246 | 77 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 77 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 77 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 77 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 77 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 76 |
| Tristan Garnett L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.13 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 185 | 76 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.71 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 265 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 76 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 76 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 76 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 75 |