Bryan King — OGILVIE

Bryan King P Houston Astros

Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA3.55

FIP3.73

K%20.1%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD6565

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p1017.3%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

FB+2.2 (72%)

SI (16%)

CH (1%)

SL-2.4 (27%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	5	0	9	36	11	4	0	0%	1.9	30.6%	11.1%	19.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.93	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	5	0	9	36	11	4	0	0%	1.9	30.6%	11.1%	19.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.03	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	44	196	42	27	4	0%	1.9	17.4%	17.8%	-0.4%	2.4%	4.53	5.20	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	44	196	42	27	4	0%	1.9	21.4%	13.8%	7.7%	2.0%	4.53	4.22	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	22	96	22	9	1	0%	1.6	13.5%	13.3%	0.2%	1.8%	1.61	4.64	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	22	96	22	9	1	0%	1.6	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	1.0%	1.61	2.92	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	63	260	76	24	2	0%	1.0	26.4%	8.7%	17.7%	0.9%	2.29	2.45	+1.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	63	260	76	24	2	0%	1.0	26.4%	8.7%	17.7%	0.9%	2.29	2.45	+1.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	63	260	76	24	2	0%	1.0	29.2%	9.2%	20.0%	0.8%	2.29	2.24	+1.7
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	68	0	68	275	69	11	10	0%	1.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.1%	3.7%	2.78	3.54	+0.8
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	68	0	68	275	69	11	10	0%	1.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.1%	3.7%	2.78	3.54	+0.8
2025	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	68	0	68	275	69	11	10	0%	1.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.1%	3.6%	2.78	3.47	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			151	1	150	637	145	40	19	1%	1.0	22.8%	6.3%	16.5%	3.0%	3.54	3.61	+1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	60	2	60	275	50	21	8	3%	1.0	17.4%	7.5%	9.9%	3.3%	4.62	4.37	+0.1
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	60	2	60	275	50	21	8	3%	1.0	17.4%	7.5%	9.9%	3.3%	4.62	4.37	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	HOU	5	1	5	22	6	2	0	20%	0.9	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.95	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	HOU	55	1	56	253	44	19	8	2%	1.0	17.4%	7.5%	9.9%	3.2%	5.01	4.32	+0.2
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	HOU	55	1	56	253	44	19	8	2%	1.0	17.4%	7.5%	9.9%	3.2%	5.01	4.32	+0.2
ROS	29	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	5	1	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	5.7%	14.4%	2.9%	3.55	3.73	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	HOU	6	0	6	25	5	1	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	5.7%	14.4%	2.9%	3.55	3.73	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	66	300	55	22	9	—	—	18.3%	7.5%	10.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.31	+0.2
FULL	29	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	62	260	55	22	9	—	—	21.2%	8.6%	12.5%	3.4%	4.87	4.25	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	67	0	70	297	59	18	9	0%	1.1	19.9%	6.0%	13.9%	3.2%	4.16	4.31	+0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	66	277	53	18	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	6.4%	12.8%	3.4%	4.39	4.54	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	64	0	67	283	56	17	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	6.0%	13.9%	3.2%	4.16	4.31	+0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	59	0	62	262	50	17	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	6.4%	12.8%	3.4%	4.39	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		280	1	285	1207	257	75	38	0%	1.0	21.3%	6.2%	15.0%	3.1%	3.87	3.81	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		196	1	200	847	180	53	27	0%	1.0	21.3%	6.2%	15.0%	3.1%	3.87	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		232	2	267	1138	243	106	28	1%	1.1	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	2.5%	3.17	3.82	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	2	200	854	183	79	21	1%	1.1	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	2.5%	3.17	3.82	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan King (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.66	23.3%	4.5%	2.9%	—	4.42	19.6%	13.3%	136	+0.76	—	—	—
Matt Grace L 2018 · 3.13 FIP	29	SU	3.13	19.4%	4.5%	2.0%	.273	5.21	17.0%	12.1%	47	+2.08	2.68	289	81
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	79
Franklin Morales L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SU	3.37	15.9%	5.4%	1.7%	.271	4.02	15.0%	7.0%	39	+0.65	3.37	101	78
Jake McGee L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	18.5%	7.3%	3.9%	.329	3.93	22.1%	15.6%	150	-0.67	1.39	350	78
Ryan Sherriff L 2017 · 2.96 FIP	27	SU	2.96	20.7%	5.7%	1.6%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	245	77
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	77
Scott Alexander L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	29	SU	3.30	20.9%	9.3%	1.4%	.290	4.64	13.3%	5.0%	45	+1.34	2.90	426	76
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	76
Ryan O'Rourke L 2016 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	23.4%	6.7%	1.9%	.284	4.08	22.1%	7.8%	56	+1.03	3.05	145	75
Jorge Ibarra L 2017 · 3.09 FIP	29	SU	3.09	19.3%	6.5%	1.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	146	75
Jose Alvarez L 2018 · 2.78 FIP	29	SU	2.78	22.6%	7.7%	1.1%	.268	3.38	17.8%	11.6%	124	+0.60	2.78	375	74
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	74
Cesár Ramos L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	19.5%	6.8%	0.9%	.329	4.68	15.9%	7.8%	172	+1.88	2.80	225	74
Manny Parra L 2015 · 2.88 FIP	32	SU	2.88	17.7%	3.8%	1.4%	.300	3.33	18.4%	8.1%	55	+0.45	2.43	114	73
Tim Hill L 2019 · 3.18 FIP	29	SU	3.18	23.4%	6.2%	2.3%	.271	3.66	18.9%	12.1%	126	+0.48	2.57	606	73
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2019 · 3.68 FIP	29	SU	3.68	17.1%	5.3%	2.5%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	322	72
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	72
Marc Rzepczynski L 2015 · 2.73 FIP	29	SU	2.73	25.9%	6.3%	1.8%	.356	3.73	19.4%	7.9%	101	+1.00	2.73	181	72
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	72
James Russell L 2015 · 3.71 FIP	29	SU	3.71	13.5%	4.7%	2.1%	.331	4.20	14.1%	8.7%	111	+0.49	2.66	233	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	70	20.9%	5.6%	1.22	3.99
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21