Bryan King P Houston Astros
Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8493vR 102
ERA3.35
FIP3.52
K%20.8%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%15.0%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
K: -4.1 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-4KBB: +2.6 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+3BBCONTACT: +5.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+6CONTACTSTAM: +5.7 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+6STAMTotal WAR: +1.03 (75 IP)+1.0WAR
1.00.50.2-0.1262829
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF4545
CTRL6060
CMD6565
K†5555
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p1017.5%
K%
p2117.9%
xwOBA vs
p500.312
FB+2.2 (71%)
SI (11%)
CH (1%)
SL-2.4 (28%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201922ROKAZL Cubs 25093611400%1.930.6%11.1%19.4%0.0%0.001.93—
201922ROKAZL Cubs 25093611400%1.930.6%11.1%19.4%0.0%0.002.03—
202124MIX2 levels23044196422740%1.917.4%17.8%-0.4%2.6%4.535.31—
202124MIX2 levels23044196422740%1.921.4%13.8%7.7%2.0%4.534.22—
202225MIX2 levels140229622910%1.613.5%13.3%0.2%1.8%1.614.63—
202225MIX2 levels140229622910%1.622.9%9.4%13.5%1.0%1.612.92—
202427MIX2 levels62063260762420%1.027.2%9.5%17.7%0.9%2.292.49+1.6
202427MIX2 levels62063260762420%1.029.2%9.2%20.0%0.8%2.292.24+1.7
202528MLBHouston Astros680682756911100%1.025.1%4.0%21.1%3.4%2.783.37+1.1
202528MLBHouston Astros680682756911100%1.025.1%4.0%21.1%3.6%2.783.47+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
202629MLBHouston Astros40043184331540%1.117.9%8.2%9.8%2.2%2.933.81+0.4
ROS29MLBHOU3003213528840%1.120.8%5.8%15.0%2.6%3.353.52+0.4
ROS29MLBHOU3003213528840%1.120.8%5.8%15.0%2.6%3.353.52+0.4
2026 TOT29MLBHOU——7531961238——19.1%7.2%12.0%2.4%3.113.69+1.0
2026 FULL29MLBHOU——7531661238——19.3%7.2%12.1%2.4%3.113.69+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202730MLBHOU67070297611880%1.120.6%6.1%14.5%2.8%3.914.06+0.6
202831MLBHOU62066277551880%1.119.9%6.5%13.4%3.0%4.144.29+0.3
202932MLBHOU58061256491880%1.019.1%6.9%12.2%3.3%4.384.55+0.0
202730MLBHOU64067283581780%1.020.6%6.1%14.5%2.8%3.914.06+0.5
202831MLBHOU59062262521780%1.119.9%6.5%13.4%3.0%4.144.29+0.2
202932MLBHOU55058245471780%1.119.1%6.9%12.2%3.3%4.384.550.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—3440356149231995430%1.021.4%6.4%15.0%2.9%3.533.66+7.2
/ 200 IP—193020083817953240%1.021.4%6.4%15.0%2.9%3.533.66+4.1
Career—21202491047231102230%1.222.0%9.8%12.3%2.2%2.783.66+5.1
/ 200 IP—170020084018582180%1.222.0%9.8%12.3%2.2%2.783.66+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Bryan King (OGILVIE) —— 3.61 23.4%4.6%2.8%— 4.29 19.9%13.4%197 +0.68 ———
Matt Grace L 2026 · 3.13 FIP 29 SU 3.13 19.4%4.5%2.0%.273 5.21 17.0%12.1%47 +2.08 2.69 289 79
Ryan Sherriff L 2024 · 2.94 FIP 27 SU 2.94 20.7%5.7%1.6%.257 — ——— — 2.94 245 78
Franklin Morales L 2026 · 3.36 FIP 29 SU 3.36 15.9%5.4%1.7%.271 4.06 15.0%7.0%39 +0.70 3.36 101 78
Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.45 FIP 29 SU 3.45 18.1%7.0%1.8%.288 3.17 16.1%9.5%34 -0.28 3.17 163 77
Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.31 FIP 29 SU 4.31 18.5%7.3%3.4%.329 3.67 22.1%15.6%150 -0.64 1.52 350 76
Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP 29 SU 4.56 18.9%8.0%3.7%.300 3.44 24.1%15.6%112 -1.12 2.81 223 76
Ryan O'Rourke L 2025 · 3.06 FIP 28 SU 3.06 23.4%6.7%2.0%.284 4.13 22.1%7.8%56 +1.07 3.06 145 76
Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP 29 SU 3.73 18.1%7.0%2.3%.342 2.95 20.6%17.2%29 -0.78 2.95 101 76
Jose Alvarez L 2026 · 2.82 FIP 29 SU 2.82 22.6%7.7%1.2%.268 3.40 17.8%11.6%124 +0.58 2.82 375 76
Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.38 FIP 29 SU 3.38 20.9%9.3%1.6%.290 4.81 13.3%5.0%45 +1.43 2.90 414 76
Jorge Ibarra L 2026 · 3.02 FIP 29 SU 3.02 19.3%6.5%1.3%.351 — ——— — 2.57 146 76
Cesár Ramos L 2028 · 2.83 FIP 31 SU 2.83 19.5%6.8%0.9%.329 4.69 15.9%7.8%172 +1.86 2.83 225 76
Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 2.83 FIP 29 SU 2.83 25.9%6.3%2.0%.356 3.76 19.4%7.9%101 +0.93 2.79 181 74
Manny Parra L 2029 · 2.89 FIP 32 SU 2.89 17.7%3.8%1.5%.300 3.34 18.4%8.1%55 +0.45 2.43 114 74
Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP 29 SU 3.84 22.1%8.4%2.8%.318 6.37 14.2%3.4%14 +2.53 2.66 230 73
Tim Hill L 2026 · 3.16 FIP 29 SU 3.16 23.4%6.2%2.3%.271 3.79 18.9%12.1%126 +0.63 2.53 587 72
Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 2.44 FIP 29 SU 2.44 26.7%7.4%1.2%.281 4.29 18.6%9.5%30 +1.85 2.44 124 72
Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 3.04 FIP 29 SU 3.04 26.8%10.0%1.7%.238 5.18 22.6%11.3%88 +2.14 3.04 145 72
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.63 FIP 29 SU 3.63 17.1%5.3%2.4%.367 — ——— — 3.63 322 72
Xavier Cedeño L 2026 · 2.55 FIP 29 SU 2.55 24.7%6.9%1.2%.291 2.48 25.5%16.8%55 -0.07 2.48 142 72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION46820.9%5.9%1.153.94
Fernando Salas ('18)45922.5%6.6%1.224.42
Nick Vincent ('20)64522.7%6.3%1.133.71
Craig Stammen ('22)66623.0%5.4%1.193.36
Blaine Hardy ('19)55018.6%7.7%1.113.91
Kelvin Herrera ('19)55923.8%7.3%1.033.58
Jarlín García ('22)56119.6%7.8%1.333.79