Bryan King

P Houston Astros

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	62	0	63	2.29	2.24	29.2%	9.2%	1.7	K 26.9% · BB 8.7% · FIP 2.41
2025	28	MLBHOU	68	0	68	2.78	3.47	25.1%	4.0%	0.9
2026	29	MIX2 levels	65	2	65	4.82	4.20	19.0%	7.7%	0.3	K 18.3% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.33
2027PROJ	30	MLBHOU	50	0	53	3.98	4.23	19.4%	5.6%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBHOU	33	0	35	4.27	4.46	18.6%	6.0%	0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBHOU	23	0	24	4.54	4.71	17.8%	6.4%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs51

K%23

FB Velo15

Form9.60 ERA (proj 3.98) · K 19.0% (proj 19.4%) · BB 8.9% (proj 5.6%) ▼ last 90d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsMatt Thornton (age 30) · Jose Alvarez (age 30) · Hideki Okajima (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94102vR 110

ERA3.98

FIP4.23

K%19.4%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD6565

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p1018.3%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	5	0	9	36	11	4	0	0%	1.9	30.6%	11.1%	19.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.93	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	5	0	9	36	11	4	0	0%	1.9	30.6%	11.1%	19.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.03	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	44	196	42	27	4	0%	1.9	17.4%	17.8%	-0.4%	2.4%	4.53	5.20	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	44	196	42	27	4	0%	1.9	21.4%	13.8%	7.7%	2.0%	4.53	4.22	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	22	96	22	9	1	0%	1.6	13.5%	13.3%	0.2%	1.8%	1.61	4.64	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	22	96	22	9	1	0%	1.6	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	1.0%	1.61	2.92	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	63	260	76	24	2	0%	1.0	26.9%	8.7%	18.2%	0.9%	2.29	2.41	+1.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	63	260	76	24	2	0%	1.0	26.9%	8.7%	18.2%	0.9%	2.29	2.41	+1.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	63	260	76	24	2	0%	1.0	29.2%	9.2%	20.0%	0.8%	2.29	2.24	+1.7
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	68	0	68	275	69	11	10	0%	1.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.1%	3.7%	2.78	3.54	+0.8
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	68	0	68	275	69	11	10	0%	1.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.1%	3.7%	2.78	3.54	+0.8
2025	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	68	0	68	275	69	11	10	0%	1.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.1%	3.6%	2.78	3.47	+0.9
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	2	65	300	57	23	9	3%	1.0	18.3%	7.6%	10.8%	3.3%	4.82	4.33	+0.2
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	2	65	300	57	23	9	3%	1.0	18.3%	7.6%	10.8%	3.3%	4.82	4.33	+0.2
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	2	65	300	57	23	9	3%	1.0	19.0%	7.7%	11.3%	3.0%	4.82	4.20	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			156	1	155	662	152	42	20	1%	1.0	23.0%	6.3%	16.6%	3.0%	3.66	3.63	+1.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	HOU	50	0	53	224	43	13	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	5.6%	13.7%	3.0%	3.98	4.23	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	35	0	37	155	29	9	5	0%	1.0	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.3%	4.27	4.46	+0.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	HOU	24	0	25	107	19	7	4	0%	1.1	17.8%	6.4%	11.4%	3.5%	4.54	4.71	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	33	0	35	148	27	9	5	0%	1.1	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.3%	4.27	4.46	+0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	HOU	23	0	24	101	18	6	4	0%	1.0	17.8%	6.4%	11.4%	3.5%	4.54	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		212	1	214	911	197	57	28	0%	1.0	21.7%	6.3%	15.4%	3.1%	3.86	3.78	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	1	200	852	184	53	26	0%	1.0	21.7%	6.3%	15.4%	3.1%	3.86	3.78	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		237	2	272	1163	252	108	29	1%	1.1	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	2.5%	3.25	3.81	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	1	200	856	186	79	21	1%	1.1	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	2.5%	3.25	3.81	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 5 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.16 (+0.21)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.860	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 37 IPFIP 2.18 → 2.48 (+0.31)K% 29.1% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.14%	—	×0.860	25.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.27%	—	×0.900	8.34%
HR / BF /BF	0.66%	÷0.903	×1.100	0.81%

Result: FIP 2.18 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATennessee Smokies · 14 IPFIP 4.06 → 4.64 (+0.58)K% 16.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.810	13.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.100	13.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.010	×1.200	1.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 8 IPFIP 0.43 → 1.31 (+0.88)K% 36.7% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.67%	—	×0.740	27.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.33%	—	×1.180	3.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.942	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 0.43 → 1.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+South Bend Cubs · 38 IPFIP 4.13 → 5.20 (+1.07)K% 22.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.62%	—	×0.770	17.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.48%	—	×1.150	17.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.928	×1.250	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 4.13 → 5.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATennessee Smokies · 6 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.86 (+0.56)K% 14.3% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.810	11.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.57%	—	×1.100	3.93%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.050	×1.200	4.08%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Cubs 2 · 9 IPFIP 1.93 → 3.10 (+1.18)K% 30.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.680	20.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.250	13.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.93 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan King (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	19.4%	5.6%	3.0%	—	4.56	18.3%	12.2%	62	+0.33	—	—	—
Matt Thornton L 2007 · 3.13 FIP	30	SU	3.13	22.1%	8.0%	1.6%	.324	2.19	30.7%	24.4%	200	-0.94	1.71	663	76
Jose Alvarez L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	30	SU	3.71	20.0%	5.5%	2.9%	.319	3.46	16.5%	9.0%	80	-0.25	2.78	414	74
Hideki Okajima L 2007 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	23.2%	5.5%	2.2%	.234	3.87	20.2%	12.6%	169	+0.82	3.05	238	73
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	73
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	72
Buddy Boshers L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	22.9%	6.6%	2.2%	.314	3.73	25.3%	14.9%	55	+0.51	2.76	239	72
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	72
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	71
Matt Grace L 2019 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	17.0%	4.9%	5.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	289	71
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	2.60	344	71
Brian Tallet L 2008 · 3.36 FIP	30	SU	3.36	19.6%	7.9%	1.7%	.282	5.06	16.0%	6.3%	251	+1.70	2.59	443	71
Jorge Ibarra L 2017 · 3.09 FIP	29	SU	3.09	19.3%	6.5%	1.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	146	71
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	70
Jeremy Bleich L 2017 · 3.20 FIP	30	SU	3.20	17.6%	5.0%	1.7%	.307	3.97	20.2%	13.5%	84	+0.77	3.20	241	70
Armando Almanza L 2003 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	21.3%	10.0%	4.3%	.331	5.29	24.1%	14.8%	12	+0.34	2.90	211	70
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	69
Vic Darensbourg L 2001 · 3.06 FIP	30	SU	3.06	16.3%	2.0%	2.0%	.298	5.46	14.2%	4.8%	48	+2.40	2.94	287	69
Brian Fuentes L 2006 · 3.47 FIP	30	SU	3.47	26.6%	8.0%	2.9%	.246	3.22	24.6%	15.8%	179	-0.25	2.08	602	68
Adam Kolarek L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	30	SU	3.71	19.7%	5.2%	2.9%	.248	4.34	15.0%	5.7%	126	+0.63	2.20	504	68
Doug Slaten L 2010 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	20.7%	9.8%	1.1%	.269	4.85	13.5%	3.1%	29	+1.63	3.22	139	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	45	21.2%	6.3%	1.20	3.89
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*