Bryan King
P
Houston Astros
+0.7
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA3.35
FIP3.80
xFIP4.05
SIERA3.37
K%25.2%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%18.7%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p1720.6%
K%
p6024.0%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
FB+2.2 (69%)
SI (13%)
CH (1%)
SL-2.4 (30%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 23 | 0 | 44 | 196 | 42 | 27 | 4 | 17.4% | 17.8% | 2.4% | 4.53 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 14 | 0 | 22 | 96 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 13.5% | 13.3% | 1.8% | 1.61 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 62 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 76 | 24 | 2 | 27.2% | 9.5% | 0.8% | 2.29 | 2.47 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 68 | 0 | 68 | 275 | 69 | 11 | 10 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.78 | 3.55 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 7 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 44 | 12 | 5 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 3.23 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 53 | 224 | 55 | 15 | 5 | 24.4% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 2.91 | 3.34 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 52 | 15 | 6 | 23.8% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 3.52 | 3.84 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 49 | 14 | 6 | 23.2% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 45 | 14 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 42 | 14 | 6 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 39 | 14 | 6 | 21.2% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 32 | 13 | 5 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 179 | 0 | 214 | 897 | 209 | 90 | 19 | 23.3% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 2.69 | 3.57 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 0 | 200 | 837 | 195 | 84 | 18 | 23.3% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 2.69 | 3.57 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan King (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.93 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% | — | 3.94 | 23.2% | 16.3% | 149 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.33 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | .271 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.33 | 101 | 81 |
| Matt Grace L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.16 | 19.4% | 4.5% | 2.1% | .273 | 4.82 | 17.0% | 12.1% | 47 | +1.66 | 2.68 | 289 | 80 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.48 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | .271 | 4.07 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.59 | 3.48 | 158 | 79 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2024 · 2.97 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.97 | 20.7% | 5.7% | 1.6% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 245 | 78 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 76 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2028 · 2.79 FIP | 31 | SW | 2.79 | 19.5% | 6.8% | 0.9% | .329 | 4.68 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 172 | +1.89 | 2.79 | 225 | 76 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 75 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 75 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 75 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.29 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .290 | 4.54 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.25 | 2.82 | 414 | 75 |
| Jose Alvarez L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.79 | 22.6% | 7.7% | 1.1% | .268 | 3.30 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 124 | +0.51 | 2.79 | 375 | 74 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2025 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.09 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.08 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 56 | +0.99 | 3.09 | 145 | 74 |
| Jorge Ibarra L 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 146 | 74 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 73 |
| Manny Parra L 2029 · 2.90 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.90 | 17.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | .300 | 3.33 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 55 | +0.43 | 2.43 | 114 | 73 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.72 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .329 | 3.96 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.76 | 1.36 | 350 | 73 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.50 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 188 | 72 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 13.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .331 | 4.20 | 14.1% | 8.7% | 111 | +0.61 | 2.65 | 233 | 72 |
| Duane Below L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.65 | 12.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.56 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 140 | +0.91 | 3.65 | 189 | 71 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.89 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.581 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.7M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $11M | +$4M | ||