Adam Kolarek

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 38 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	33	MIX2 levels	52	0	59	5.64	3.79	18.6%	9.3%	0.5	K 16.8% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.00
2023	34	MIX2 levels	51	0	49	3.33	3.78	23.1%	14.4%	0.4	K 19.0% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.27
2024	35	AAALAA	31	0	31	6.97	4.39	22.0%	12.0%	—	K 18.9% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.69
2025	36	No MLB games played
2026	37	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	38	MLBLAA	5	0	5	4.41	4.60	20.2%	9.6%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	39	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.78	5.03	19.1%	10.3%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

xwOBA vs31

FB Velo10

K%10

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 37) · Juan Sandoval (age 38) · Keiichi Yabu (age 39)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 121

ERA4.41

FIP4.60

K%20.2%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.4

Whiff%

p1011.7%

p1011.4%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	26	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	51	1	67	288	61	27	4	2%	1.3	17.2%	10.3%	6.8%	1.5%	4.43	3.80	—
2015	26	AA RAW	Binghamton Mets	51	1	67	288	61	27	4	2%	1.3	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	1.4%	4.43	3.26	—
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	60	261	63	35	1	0%	1.3	20.8%	14.3%	6.5%	0.4%	3.13	3.36	—
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	60	261	63	35	1	0%	1.3	24.1%	13.4%	10.7%	0.4%	3.13	2.97	—
2017	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	52	224	50	17	2	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	0.0%	2.42	2.33	+1.4
2017	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	52	224	50	17	2	0%	1.0	22.3%	7.6%	14.7%	0.9%	2.42	2.66	+1.2
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	1	79	319	71	15	1	2%	1.3	20.3%	4.9%	15.4%	0.4%	2.62	2.20	+2.2
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	1	79	319	71	15	1	2%	1.3	22.3%	4.7%	17.6%	0.3%	2.62	2.04	+2.4
2019	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	80	0	55	229	45	12	7	0%	0.7	19.7%	5.2%	14.4%	2.9%	3.27	3.71	+0.5
2019	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	80	0	55	229	45	12	7	0%	0.7	19.7%	5.2%	14.4%	3.1%	3.27	3.77	+0.5
2020	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	20	0	19	72	13	4	1	0%	0.9	18.1%	5.6%	12.5%	1.3%	0.95	3.01	+0.3
2020	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	20	0	19	72	13	4	1	0%	0.9	18.1%	5.6%	12.5%	1.4%	0.95	3.05	+0.3
2021	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	48	240	31	24	7	0%	1.0	11.6%	10.4%	1.2%	3.4%	6.99	5.28	-0.4
2021	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	48	240	31	24	7	0%	1.0	12.9%	10.0%	2.9%	2.9%	6.99	5.22	-0.4
2022	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	59	258	48	24	5	0%	1.1	16.8%	9.6%	7.2%	2.0%	5.64	4.00	+0.4
2022	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	59	258	48	24	5	0%	1.1	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	1.9%	5.64	3.79	+0.5
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	49	208	48	30	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	14.0%	4.9%	1.8%	3.33	4.27	+0.2
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	49	208	48	30	3	0%	1.0	23.1%	14.4%	8.7%	1.4%	3.33	3.78	+0.4
2024	35	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	31	0	31	150	33	18	4	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	3.3%	6.97	4.69	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	31	0	31	150	33	18	4	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	3.3%	6.97	4.69	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	31	0	31	150	33	18	4	0%	1.0	22.0%	12.0%	10.0%	2.7%	6.97	4.39	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			175	0	149	634	101	36	13	0%	0.9	15.9%	5.7%	10.3%	2.1%	3.62	3.60	+1.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	LAA	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.41	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	LAA	29	0	30	127	24	13	4	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.3%	8.7%	3.4%	4.78	5.03	-0.2
2028	39	MLB CTX	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.1%	10.3%	8.7%	3.4%	4.78	5.03	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		175	0	149	634	101	36	13	0%	0.9	15.9%	5.7%	10.3%	2.1%	3.62	3.60	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		234	0	200	849	135	48	17	0%	0.9	15.9%	5.7%	10.3%	2.1%	3.62	3.60	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		496	2	519	2249	415	213	36	0%	1.0	18.4%	9.5%	9.0%	1.6%	3.97	3.62	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		191	1	200	867	160	82	14	0%	1.0	18.4%	9.5%	9.0%	1.6%	3.97	3.62	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 31 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.69 (+0.46)K% 22.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.00%	—	×0.860	18.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×0.900	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷0.886	×1.100	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 43 IPFIP 4.10 → 4.27 (+0.17)K% 22.0% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.04%	—	×0.860	18.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.59%	—	×0.900	14.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷0.984	×1.100	1.80%

Result: FIP 4.10 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 41 IPFIP 3.62 → 3.92 (+0.31)K% 21.8% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.79%	—	×0.880	19.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.94%	—	×1.050	9.39%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷1.075	×1.100	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 39 IPFIP 4.62 → 5.07 (+0.45)K% 14.3% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.880	12.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.05%	—	×1.050	10.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.941	×1.100	3.09%

Result: FIP 4.62 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAADurham Bulls · 45 IPFIP 1.72 → 2.10 (+0.38)K% 29.2% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.21%	—	×0.880	25.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.18%	—	×1.050	6.49%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷0.970	×1.100	0.64%

Result: FIP 1.72 → 2.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAADurham Bulls · 44 IPFIP 2.02 → 2.33 (+0.30)K% 25.0% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.880	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.15%	—	×1.050	8.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.049	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.02 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAADurham Bulls · 41 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.19 (+0.33)K% 26.4% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.44%	—	×0.880	23.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.22%	—	×1.050	13.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷1.167	×1.100	0.54%

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 19 IPFIP 3.20 → 3.69 (+0.49)K% 19.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.54%	—	×0.810	15.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.100	15.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.081	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Kolarek (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	20.2%	9.6%	2.9%	—	5.03	19.1%	8.7%	30	+0.43	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	63
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	38
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	38
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	37
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	37
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	34
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	33
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	32
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	30
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	29
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	29
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	28
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	28
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	17
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	13

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	17.3%	7.9%	0.93	3.94
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Blaine Hardy ('21)	1.5	48	18.5%	8.3%	0.99	3.78
Brian Shouse ('09)	1.8	50	15.5%	7.8%	0.80	3.72
Geoff Geary ('09)	1.8	59	15.1%	8.1%	0.87	3.92
Jeff Innis ('87-'93, 4 WAR*)	1.8	60	16.2%*	8.1%*	0.82*	3.56*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*