Garrett Williams P Las Vegas Aviators
Age 31 LHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION34 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP
SIERA
K%23.5%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%11.6%
IP34
WAR · 34 IP × (5.30 − 4.53) / 9.8+0.0
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR K%BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201621ROKAZL Giants3172753018.5%11.1%0.0%2.572.94+0.1
201722A+San Jose Giants1816974249635317.0%9.7%0.9%2.323.36+2.2
201823AARichmond Flying Squirrels3315824087360614.5%16.2%2.4%6.065.24-0.2
201924AARichmond Flying Squirrels292011048610858618.0%13.1%1.9%3.604.29+1.4
202126AAAMemphis Redbirds370522396242422.1%18.6%2.1%5.404.72-0.1
202227AAAMemphis Redbirds281577344101461124.9%14.2%3.3%5.734.60+0.3
202328AAALas Vegas Aviators421532577160124.3%24.5%0.4%5.134.39+0.1
▸ 2026 Season
202631MLBOAK34341453417423.5%11.9%2.8%4.534.53+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202732MLBOAK32321343116423.1%12.0%3.1%4.654.74-0.1
202833MLBOAK29291232815422.6%12.3%3.3%4.824.96-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career1906847721854253304019.4%15.1%1.8%4.454.38+5.7
/ 200 IP80292009161781381719.4%15.1%1.8%4.454.38+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Garrett Williams (OGILVIE) 4.53 23.5%11.9%2.8% 4.85 22.9%10.7%61 +0.32
Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP 31 SU 3.79 22.7%11.9%2.0%.351 5.19 21.5%14.2%18 +1.40 2.29 130 89
Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.48 FIP 32 SU 4.48 22.7%13.1%3.0%.321 4.52 22.0%7.0%95 +0.04 2.97 294 81
Phil Coke L 2028 · 4.00 FIP 33 SU 4.00 18.8%9.1%2.4%.373 3.04 18.0%11.3%70 -0.96 3.04 101 81
Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP 31 SW 3.73 25.3%10.4%2.6%.294 2.81 223 80
Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.48 FIP 31 SU 3.48 20.3%7.1%2.2%.281 2.35 23.3%21.0%44 -1.13 2.35 306 78
Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.29 FIP 31 SU 4.29 18.6%9.1%2.9%.354 2.44 124 78
Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.56 FIP 31 SU 3.56 26.5%10.8%2.4%.290 4.09 22.1%12.0%54 +0.53 2.48 420 78
Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.42 FIP 31 SU 3.42 20.3%9.6%1.5%.266 4.27 19.4%10.0%90 +0.85 1.32 182 77
Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 3.79 FIP 31 SU 3.79 18.2%10.9%1.5%.284 5.42 15.5%1.4%67 +1.63 2.79 181 77
Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP 32 SW 4.73 19.4%7.9%4.1%.320 4.14 19.0%7.6%128 -0.59 3.60 190 75
Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.83 FIP 29 SW 4.83 20.2%9.6%4.0%.301 2.68 175 75
Adam Loewen L 2026 · 3.90 FIP 31 SW 3.90 25.1%15.9%1.7%.287 3.58 23.2%7.3%98 -0.32 2.96 176 74
Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP 31 SU 3.72 21.6%6.2%3.0%.311 4.39 22.4%8.9%85 +0.67 3.72 181 74
Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 4.13 FIP 31 SW 4.13 22.1%14.3%2.0%.290 3.06 145 74
Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.36 FIP 31 SU 3.36 29.2%9.2%2.8%.324 3.36 113 73
Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.14 FIP 30 SW 4.14 16.8%12.2%1.7%.330 3.89 17.2%9.5%22 -0.25 3.89 154 73
Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP 31 SW 3.70 20.3%6.6%2.7%.296 4.51 20.1%13.1%33 +0.81 3.21 241 73
Buddy Baumann L 2025 · 4.85 FIP 30 SU 4.85 20.5%11.9%3.6%.258 2.83 155 73
James Jones L 2025 · 4.08 FIP 30 SW 4.08 21.9%13.0%2.1%.230 4.72 23.9%8.8%35 +0.64 3.58 127 71
Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.47 FIP 31 SU 3.47 25.2%8.6%2.6%.269 4.81 24.3%12.6%78 +1.34 2.37 296 71

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.