Garrett Williams
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 31
LHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION34 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%11.6%
IP34
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Giants | 3 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 2.94 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 18 | 16 | 97 | 424 | 96 | 35 | 3 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 0.9% | 2.32 | 3.36 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 33 | 15 | 82 | 408 | 73 | 60 | 6 | 14.5% | 16.2% | 2.4% | 6.06 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 29 | 20 | 110 | 486 | 108 | 58 | 6 | 18.0% | 13.1% | 1.9% | 3.60 | 4.29 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 37 | 0 | 52 | 239 | 62 | 42 | 4 | 22.1% | 18.6% | 2.1% | 5.40 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 28 | 15 | 77 | 344 | 101 | 46 | 11 | 24.9% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 5.73 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 42 | 1 | 53 | 257 | 71 | 60 | 1 | 24.3% | 24.5% | 0.4% | 5.13 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 190 | 68 | 477 | 2185 | 425 | 330 | 40 | 19.4% | 15.1% | 1.8% | 4.45 | 4.38 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 29 | 200 | 916 | 178 | 138 | 17 | 19.4% | 15.1% | 1.8% | 4.45 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Williams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.85 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 61 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.19 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.40 | 2.29 | 130 | 89 |
| Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 81 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 81 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 80 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 78 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 78 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.09 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.53 | 2.48 | 420 | 78 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.42 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 1.5% | .266 | 4.27 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 90 | +0.85 | 1.32 | 182 | 77 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .284 | 5.42 | 15.5% | 1.4% | 67 | +1.63 | 2.79 | 181 | 77 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 75 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 75 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 74 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 74 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 74 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 73 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 73 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 73 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 73 |
| James Jones L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.08 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .230 | 4.72 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 35 | +0.64 | 3.58 | 127 | 71 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.47 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.81 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 78 | +1.34 | 2.37 | 296 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.