Brandon Herbold

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 22 LHP 6'6" / 180 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKKC	11	0	14	2.63	2.22	34.4%	16.4%	—	K 23.4% · BB 20.5% · FIP 3.72
2026	21	AKC	29	0	30	7.50	4.73	24.5%	21.3%	—	K 18.1% · BB 25.1% · FIP 5.67
2027PROJ	22	MLBKC	—	—	0	5.86	5.86	20.5%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBKC	10	0	10	5.49	5.34	21.5%	16.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJackson Lancaster (age 24) · Dillon Larsen (age 24) · Felix Polanco (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128136vR 144

ERA5.86

FIP5.86

K%20.5%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.5%

Proj IP15

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	10	24	101	15	7	4	83%	2.0	10.1%	8.7%	1.4%	5.5%	6.46	6.39	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	12	10	24	101	15	7	4	83%	2.0	14.9%	6.9%	7.9%	4.0%	6.46	4.92	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	8	38	170	43	24	5	67%	3.2	17.2%	17.6%	-0.4%	4.3%	5.68	6.27	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	8	38	170	43	24	5	67%	3.2	17.2%	17.6%	-0.4%	4.3%	5.68	6.27	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	12	8	38	170	43	24	5	67%	3.2	25.3%	14.1%	11.2%	2.9%	5.68	4.44	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	11	0	14	61	21	10	0	0%	1.2	23.4%	20.5%	2.9%	0.0%	2.63	3.72	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	11	0	14	61	21	10	0	0%	1.2	23.4%	20.5%	2.9%	0.0%	2.63	3.72	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	11	0	14	61	21	10	0	0%	1.2	34.4%	16.4%	18.0%	0.0%	2.63	2.22	—
2026	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	29	0	30	155	38	33	2	0%	1.0	18.1%	25.1%	-7.0%	1.7%	7.50	5.67	—
2026	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	29	0	30	155	38	33	2	0%	1.0	18.1%	25.1%	-7.0%	1.7%	7.50	5.67	—
2026	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	29	0	30	155	38	33	2	0%	1.0	24.5%	21.3%	3.2%	1.3%	7.50	4.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	20.0%	0.5%	2.9%	5.86	5.86	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	19	0	20	85	18	14	2	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.7%	4.8%	2.8%	5.49	5.34	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	16.7%	4.8%	2.8%	5.49	5.34	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.7%	4.8%	2.8%	5.49	4.96	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	142	20	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.7%	4.8%	2.8%	5.49	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		64	18	105	487	82	90	16	28%	1.6	16.8%	18.5%	-1.7%	3.2%	5.98	5.78	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	34	200	925	155	171	30	28%	1.6	16.8%	18.5%	-1.7%	3.2%	5.98	5.78	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 30 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.67 (+1.24)K% 24.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.52%	—	×0.740	18.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.29%	—	×1.180	25.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.68%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Royals · 14 IPFIP 2.27 → 3.72 (+1.45)K% 34.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.43%	—	×0.680	23.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.39%	—	×1.250	20.49%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.939	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Royals · 38 IPFIP 4.37 → 6.27 (+1.90)K% 25.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.29%	—	×0.680	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.12%	—	×1.250	17.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.949	×1.400	4.34%

Result: FIP 4.37 → 6.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Royals · 24 IPFIP 4.90 → 6.39 (+1.49)K% 14.9% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.85%	—	×0.680	10.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.93%	—	×1.250	8.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.96%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.54%

Result: FIP 4.90 → 6.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Herbold (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	20.5%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.34	21.5%	4.8%	20	-0.52	—	—	—
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	85
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	82
Felix Polanco L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	22	SU	5.19	18.7%	19.9%	2.1%	.290	3.68	18.8%	12.8%	27	-1.51	3.68	105	81
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	80
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	80
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	80
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	79
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	79
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	78
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	78
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	78
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	77
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	76
Jeff Wallace L 2000 · 5.61 FIP	24	SU	5.61	14.6%	17.8%	2.7%	.308	4.73	16.9%	0.5%	50	-0.88	2.51	137	75
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	75
Oriel Castro L 2023 · 6.44 FIP	22	SU	6.44	16.0%	21.3%	3.6%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	129	75
Jordan Norberto L 2010 · 6.32 FIP	23	SU	6.32	16.0%	22.3%	3.2%	.236	3.89	21.7%	12.3%	52	-2.43	3.89	117	75
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	74
Bryan Warzek L 2019 · 5.92 FIP	22	SW	5.92	17.7%	24.4%	2.2%	.328	6.74	20.2%	1.9%	73	+0.82	1.91	138	74
Johan Simon L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	22	SU	6.17	14.6%	15.4%	4.3%	.341	3.96	19.6%	6.5%	115	-2.21	3.45	178	74