Brandon Herbold — OGILVIE

Brandon Herbold P Columbia Fireflies

Age 21 LHP 6'6" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%21.6%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	10	24	101	15	7	4	83%	2.0	10.1%	8.7%	1.4%	5.5%	6.46	6.39	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	10	24	101	15	7	4	83%	2.0	10.1%	8.7%	1.4%	5.5%	6.46	6.39	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	12	10	24	101	15	7	4	83%	2.0	14.9%	6.9%	7.9%	4.0%	6.46	4.92	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	8	38	170	43	24	5	67%	3.2	17.2%	17.6%	-0.4%	4.3%	5.68	6.27	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	8	38	170	43	24	5	67%	3.2	17.2%	17.6%	-0.4%	4.3%	5.68	6.27	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	12	8	38	170	43	24	5	67%	3.2	25.3%	14.1%	11.2%	2.9%	5.68	4.44	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	11	0	14	61	21	10	0	0%	1.2	23.4%	20.5%	2.9%	0.0%	2.63	3.72	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	11	0	14	61	21	10	0	0%	1.2	23.4%	20.5%	2.9%	0.0%	2.63	3.72	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	11	0	14	61	21	10	0	0%	1.2	34.4%	16.4%	18.0%	0.0%	2.63	2.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	29	0	30	155	38	33	2	0%	1.0	18.1%	25.1%	-7.0%	1.7%	7.50	5.67	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	29	0	30	155	38	33	2	0%	1.0	18.1%	25.1%	-7.0%	1.7%	7.50	5.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	KC	29	0	30	155	38	33	2	0%	1.0	24.5%	21.3%	3.2%	1.3%	7.50	4.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	KC	34	0	36	152	34	21	4	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	2.9%	5.02	4.90	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	KC	17	0	18	76	17	10	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	2.9%	5.02	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	17	10	2	0%	1.0	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	2.9%	5.02	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	113	23	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	2.9%	5.02	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		64	18	105	487	82	90	16	28%	1.6	16.8%	18.5%	-1.7%	3.2%	5.98	5.78	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	34	200	925	155	171	30	28%	1.6	16.8%	18.5%	-1.7%	3.2%	5.98	5.78	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Herbold (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	21.6%	15.8%	3.0%	—	4.90	22.7%	9.1%	36	-0.41	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	84
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	84
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	82
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	81
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	80
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	79
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	284	79
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	79
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	79
Nick Jones L 2022 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	22.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.284	3.63	21.7%	12.0%	143	-0.58	1.32	201	79
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	79
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	78
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	78
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	78
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.01	223	78
Blake Townsend L 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	18.3%	17.5%	3.8%	.170	3.73	18.1%	8.4%	167	-2.10	3.34	305	77
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	77
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	77
Yoldin De La Paz L 2023 · 4.38 FIP	21	SU	4.38	17.8%	15.8%	1.4%	.339	4.32	17.7%	10.5%	44	-0.06	3.51	124	77