Angel Hernandez — OGILVIE

Angel Hernandez P South Bend Cubs

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.42

FIP5.42

K%20.7%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%3.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	15	0	22	108	26	11	0	0%	1.5	16.4%	12.7%	3.6%	0.0%	3.27	3.33	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	15	0	22	108	26	11	0	0%	1.5	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	0.0%	3.27	2.24	—
2022	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	0	37	174	55	31	4	0%	1.8	23.4%	21.0%	2.4%	3.2%	5.79	5.53	—
2022	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	0	37	174	55	31	4	0%	1.8	31.6%	17.8%	13.8%	2.3%	5.79	4.04	—
2023	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	54	246	79	45	1	0%	1.7	23.8%	21.6%	2.2%	0.6%	4.14	4.13	—
2023	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	54	246	79	45	1	0%	1.7	23.8%	21.6%	2.2%	0.6%	4.14	4.13	—
2023	23	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	54	246	79	45	1	0%	1.7	32.1%	18.3%	13.8%	0.4%	4.14	2.92	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	69	291	75	45	3	0%	2.5	19.2%	18.0%	1.2%	1.4%	3.80	4.55	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	69	291	75	45	3	0%	2.5	19.2%	18.0%	1.2%	1.4%	3.80	4.55	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	69	291	75	45	3	0%	2.5	25.8%	15.5%	10.3%	1.0%	3.80	3.45	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	6	0	9	47	12	9	0	0%	1.6	25.5%	19.1%	6.4%	0.0%	5.79	3.37	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	6	0	9	47	12	9	0	0%	1.6	25.5%	19.1%	6.4%	0.0%	5.79	3.37	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	6	0	9	47	12	9	0	0%	1.6	25.5%	19.1%	6.4%	0.0%	5.79	3.42	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CHC	4	0	4	17	3	3	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	16.9%	3.8%	2.8%	5.42	5.42	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	58	0	61	257	54	42	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.2%	4.8%	2.9%	5.34	5.35	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	56	0	59	250	52	39	8	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.8%	5.2%	3.0%	5.32	5.36	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	21	0	22	93	19	15	3	0%	1.0	20.9%	16.2%	4.8%	2.9%	5.34	5.35	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	33	0	35	148	31	23	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.8%	5.2%	3.0%	5.32	5.36	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	57	241	51	38	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.0%	3.0%	5.33	4.98	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	133	24	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.0%	3.0%	5.33	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		102	0	192	866	185	165	11	0%	1.9	21.3%	19.0%	2.3%	1.3%	4.32	4.41	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	0	200	904	193	172	12	0%	1.9	21.3%	19.0%	2.3%	1.3%	4.32	4.41	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angel Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	20.7%	16.9%	2.8%	—	5.35	21.0%	5.0%	120	-0.07	—	—	—
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	85
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	84
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	83
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	83
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	82
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	82
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.90	18.7%	4.0%	103	+0.49	3.16	199	82
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	82
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	82
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	82
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	81
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	80
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	80
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	80
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	80
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	79
Adam McCreery L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	26	SU	4.29	20.7%	14.5%	2.0%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	207	78
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	78
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	20.9%	16.2%	1.13	5.35
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48