Angel Hernandez

P South Bend Cubs

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	ACHC	32	0	54	4.14	2.92	32.1%	18.3%	—	K 23.8% · BB 21.6% · FIP 4.13
2024	24	MIX2 levels	28	0	69	3.80	3.45	25.8%	15.5%	—	K 19.2% · BB 18.0% · FIP 4.55
2025	25	A+CHC	6	0	9	5.79	3.42	25.5%	19.1%	—	K 25.5% · BB 19.1% · FIP 3.37
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	—	—	0	5.00	5.00	21.7%	13.7%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBCHC	12	0	13	4.98	5.02	21.8%	13.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBCHC	16	0	17	5.03	5.09	21.6%	13.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsAaron Brown (age 27) · Colton Johnson (age 26) · Mitchell Tyranski (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%21.7%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	15	0	22	108	26	11	0	0%	1.5	16.4%	12.7%	3.6%	0.0%	3.27	3.33	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	15	0	22	108	26	11	0	0%	1.5	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	0.0%	3.27	2.24	—
2022	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	0	37	174	55	31	4	0%	1.8	23.4%	21.0%	2.4%	3.2%	5.79	5.53	—
2022	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	0	37	174	55	31	4	0%	1.8	31.6%	17.8%	13.8%	2.3%	5.79	4.04	—
2023	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	54	246	79	45	1	0%	1.7	23.8%	21.6%	2.2%	0.6%	4.14	4.13	—
2023	23	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	54	246	79	45	1	0%	1.7	32.1%	18.3%	13.8%	0.4%	4.14	2.92	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	69	291	75	45	3	0%	2.5	19.2%	18.0%	1.2%	1.4%	3.80	4.55	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	69	291	75	45	3	0%	2.5	19.2%	18.0%	1.2%	1.4%	3.80	4.55	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	69	291	75	45	3	0%	2.5	25.8%	15.5%	10.3%	1.0%	3.80	3.45	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	6	0	9	47	12	9	0	0%	1.6	25.5%	19.1%	6.4%	0.0%	5.79	3.37	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	6	0	9	47	12	9	0	0%	1.6	25.5%	19.1%	6.4%	0.0%	5.79	3.37	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	6	0	9	47	12	9	0	0%	1.6	25.5%	19.1%	6.4%	0.0%	5.79	3.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	3.0%	5.00	5.00	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	35	0	36	154	34	21	5	0%	1.0	21.8%	13.4%	8.4%	3.1%	4.98	5.02	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	29	0	31	130	28	17	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.3%	8.4%	3.2%	5.03	5.09	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	12	0	13	55	12	7	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.4%	8.4%	3.1%	4.98	5.02	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	16	0	17	72	16	10	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.3%	8.4%	3.2%	5.03	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	0	30	128	28	17	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.3%	8.4%	3.1%	5.01	4.68	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	112	26	0%	1.1	21.7%	13.3%	8.4%	3.1%	5.01	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		102	0	192	866	185	165	11	0%	1.9	21.3%	19.0%	2.3%	1.3%	4.32	4.41	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	0	200	904	193	172	12	0%	1.9	21.3%	19.0%	2.3%	1.3%	4.32	4.41	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 9 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.23 (+0.86)K% 25.5% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.53%	—	×0.770	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.15%	—	×1.150	22.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.106	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 50 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.43 (+1.12)K% 32.0% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.96%	—	×0.740	23.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.89%	—	×1.180	15.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.52%	÷0.908	×1.300	0.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 19 IPFIP 5.71 → 6.79 (+1.08)K% 13.4% → 10.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.40%	—	×0.770	10.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.62%	—	×1.150	23.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷0.909	×1.250	2.83%

Result: FIP 5.71 → 6.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 54 IPFIP 2.93 → 4.13 (+1.20)K% 32.1% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.11%	—	×0.740	23.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.29%	—	×1.180	21.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.41%	÷0.957	×1.300	0.55%

Result: FIP 2.93 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 37 IPFIP 3.95 → 5.53 (+1.58)K% 31.6% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.61%	—	×0.740	23.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.82%	—	×1.180	21.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷0.942	×1.300	3.17%

Result: FIP 3.95 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Cubs · 22 IPFIP 2.36 → 3.33 (+0.97)K% 24.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.07%	—	×0.680	16.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.19%	—	×1.250	12.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.014	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.36 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angel Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	21.7%	13.7%	3.0%	—	5.05	21.7%	8.4%	67	+0.05	—	—	—
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	86
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	85
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	84
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	84
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	82
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	81
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	81
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	81
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	80
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	79
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	79
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	78
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	78
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	78
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	78
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	78
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	78
Josh D. Smith L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	20.5%	12.6%	2.0%	.306	3.38	23.1%	12.3%	164	-0.67	3.17	335	78
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	78
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	38	21.7%	13.5%	1.18	5.00
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35