Johan Simon
P
Erie SeaWolves
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 166 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.0%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 7 | 5 | 22 | 86 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | 3.74 | 3.44 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 11 | 3 | 27 | 117 | 33 | 16 | 0 | 19.2% | 17.1% | 0.0% | 2.96 | 3.65 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 10 | 1 | 14 | 65 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 14.6% | 15.4% | 4.3% | 8.36 | 6.16 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 3 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 16 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.08 | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 31 | 0 | 71 | 315 | 79 | 29 | 3 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 0.9% | 3.42 | 3.46 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 4 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 59 | 249 | 51 | 27 | 7 | 20.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.09 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 47 | 23 | 6 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 47 | 23 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 47 | 22 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | DET | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | DET | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | DET | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | DET | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | DET | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 37 | 20 | 6 | 20.2% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | DET | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | DET | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 32 | 18 | 6 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | DET | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 19.0% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 10 | 153 | 657 | 126 | 76 | 9 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 1.4% | 3.76 | 3.69 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 13 | 200 | 859 | 165 | 99 | 12 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 1.4% | 3.76 | 3.69 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Johan Simon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.51 | 21.1% | 11.0% | 158 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 93 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 91 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 89 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 88 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 88 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.65 | 3.93 | 264 | 87 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .294 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.25 | 3.59 | 364 | 87 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 86 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 86 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .304 | 4.45 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 276 | +1.08 | 3.37 | 353 | 85 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.9% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 200 | 85 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 85 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 186 | 85 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 85 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 85 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 85 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.68 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | .352 | 4.78 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 129 | +0.10 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | .382 | 3.51 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.61 | 2.88 | 206 | 84 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | .322 | 4.68 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.61 | 3.96 | 265 | 84 |
| Braulio Lara L 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 84 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.