Johan Simon
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 166 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 130
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%17.1%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%6.1%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 7 | 5 | 22 | 86 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 71% | 3.1 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 1.3% | 3.74 | 3.42 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 7 | 5 | 22 | 86 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 71% | 3.1 | 29.1% | 8.1% | 20.9% | 1.2% | 3.74 | 2.36 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 11 | 3 | 27 | 117 | 33 | 16 | 0 | 27% | 2.5 | 19.2% | 17.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 2.96 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 11 | 3 | 27 | 117 | 33 | 16 | 0 | 27% | 2.5 | 28.2% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 2.96 | 2.44 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 10 | 1 | 14 | 65 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 10% | 1.4 | 14.6% | 15.4% | -0.7% | 4.3% | 8.36 | 6.15 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 10 | 1 | 14 | 65 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 10% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 8.36 | 4.67 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 3 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 4.3 | 32.7% | 0.0% | 32.7% | 2.0% | 2.08 | 1.46 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 3 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 4.3 | 32.7% | 0.0% | 32.7% | 2.0% | 2.08 | 1.64 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 71 | 315 | 79 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 2.3 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 1.0% | 3.42 | 3.47 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 71 | 315 | 79 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 2.3 | 25.1% | 9.2% | 15.9% | 1.0% | 3.42 | 2.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 25 | 0 | 35 | 162 | 42 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.0% | 17.0% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 4.63 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 51 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 105 | 458 | 93 | 58 | 9 | — | — | 20.2% | 12.6% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 4.83 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.1% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 53 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 54 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 52 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 40 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 534 | 98 | 58 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.48 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 92 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.48 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 87 | 10 | 182 | 794 | 155 | 100 | 9 | 11% | 2.1 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 3.91 | 3.67 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 11 | 200 | 873 | 170 | 109 | 10 | 11% | 2.1 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 3.91 | 3.67 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Johan Simon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 17.1% | 11.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.86 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 206 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Michael Heesch L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 14.0% | 10.3% | 1.2% | .284 | 4.59 | 11.1% | 2.8% | 44 | +0.72 | 3.87 | 109 | 85 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 85 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.84 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.14 | 3.54 | 364 | 85 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 84 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 84 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 84 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.77 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 200 | 83 |
| Braulio Lara L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 83 |
| Gerardo Concepción L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.75 | 16.9% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 104 | 83 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 82 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.08 | 4.84 | 137 | 82 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 17.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .308 | 5.43 | 13.9% | 1.8% | 49 | +1.11 | 4.08 | 212 | 82 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2025 · 5.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.53 | 17.6% | 11.7% | 4.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 128 | 82 |
| Cody Stull L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.91 | 11.9% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .310 | 3.19 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 81 | -1.72 | 2.54 | 264 | 82 |
| Nolan Becker L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.10 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .313 | 6.80 | 18.9% | 14.6% | 13 | +2.70 | 3.71 | 105 | 82 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 82 |
| Jeff Kinley L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 1.4% | .300 | 4.05 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 104 | +0.13 | 3.41 | 232 | 81 |
| Will Lamb L 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.79 | 15.3% | 11.7% | 4.5% | .280 | 5.47 | 20.0% | 6.0% | 67 | -0.32 | 3.56 | 178 | 81 |
| Trent Szkutnik L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.35 | 18.4% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 429 | 81 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.63 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .352 | 4.46 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 129 | -0.17 | 3.88 | 256 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 18.0% | 10.9% | 1.09 | 4.87 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |