Johan Simon — OGILVIE

Johan Simon P Erie SeaWolves

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 166 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%17.1%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	7	5	22	86	25	7	1	71%	3.1	19.8%	10.2%	9.6%	1.4%	3.74	3.51	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	7	5	22	86	25	7	1	71%	3.1	29.1%	8.1%	20.9%	1.2%	3.74	2.36	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	27	117	33	16	0	27%	2.5	19.2%	17.1%	2.1%	0.0%	2.96	3.65	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	27	117	33	16	0	27%	2.5	28.2%	13.7%	14.5%	0.0%	2.96	2.44	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	10	1	14	65	14	8	2	10%	1.4	14.6%	15.4%	-0.7%	4.3%	8.36	6.17	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	10	1	14	65	14	8	2	10%	1.4	14.6%	15.4%	-0.7%	4.3%	8.36	6.17	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	10	1	14	65	14	8	2	10%	1.4	21.5%	12.3%	9.2%	3.1%	8.36	4.67	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	3	1	13	49	16	0	1	33%	4.3	32.7%	0.0%	32.7%	2.0%	2.08	1.46	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	3	1	13	49	16	0	1	33%	4.3	32.7%	0.0%	32.7%	2.0%	2.08	1.46	—
2024	23	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	3	1	13	49	16	0	1	33%	4.3	32.7%	0.0%	32.7%	2.0%	2.08	1.64	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	71	315	79	29	3	0%	2.3	17.7%	10.6%	7.2%	0.9%	3.42	3.45	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	71	315	79	29	3	0%	2.3	17.7%	10.6%	7.2%	0.9%	3.42	3.45	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	71	315	79	29	3	0%	2.3	25.1%	9.2%	15.9%	1.0%	3.42	2.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	40	0	55	257	71	35	4	0%	1.4	22.4%	15.0%	7.4%	1.9%	4.77	4.13	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	40	0	55	257	71	35	4	0%	1.4	22.4%	15.0%	7.4%	1.9%	4.77	4.13	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	DET	40	0	55	257	71	35	4	0%	1.4	27.6%	13.6%	14.0%	1.6%	4.77	3.35	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	DET	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.2%	5.9%	2.7%	4.95	4.95	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	61	284	76	38	5	—	—	26.6%	13.4%	13.2%	1.7%	4.79	4.22	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	67	0	70	296	53	33	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	2.7%	4.87	4.86	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	66	0	69	291	54	32	8	0%	1.0	18.4%	10.9%	7.4%	2.8%	4.85	4.86	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	64	0	67	282	52	31	8	0%	1.0	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	2.9%	4.88	4.92	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	61	0	64	270	50	30	8	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	3.1%	4.96	5.03	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	30	0	31	131	24	14	4	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	2.7%	4.87	4.86	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	42	0	44	186	34	20	5	0%	1.0	18.4%	10.9%	7.4%	2.8%	4.85	4.86	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	49	0	51	215	40	24	6	0%	1.0	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	2.9%	4.88	4.92	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	50	0	52	220	40	25	7	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	3.1%	4.96	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	137	83	22	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.0%	7.3%	2.9%	4.89	4.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	94	25	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.0%	7.3%	2.9%	4.89	4.55	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		102	10	202	889	178	111	13	10%	2.0	20.1%	12.4%	7.6%	1.4%	4.02	3.77	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	10	200	882	177	110	13	10%	2.0	20.1%	12.4%	7.6%	1.4%	4.02	3.77	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Simon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	17.1%	11.2%	2.7%	—	4.88	18.3%	7.3%	206	-0.07	—	—	—
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	86
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	85
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	85
Michael Heesch L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	25	SU	3.79	14.0%	10.3%	1.1%	.284	4.56	11.1%	2.8%	44	+0.77	3.79	109	84
Hunter Schryver L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.47	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.71	3.58	206	84
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	84
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	84
Will Lamb L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	15.3%	11.7%	4.3%	.280	5.78	20.0%	6.0%	67	+0.12	3.64	178	84
Gerardo Concepción L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	16.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	104	84
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	84
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	83
Hayden Howard L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	25	SU	3.76	17.5%	8.4%	1.9%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	200	83
Patrick McCoy L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	26	SU	3.81	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.336	4.28	15.4%	1.6%	44	+0.47	3.81	113	83
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	83
Jeff Kinley L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	25	SU	3.96	14.9%	10.3%	1.5%	.300	4.05	19.5%	9.6%	104	+0.09	3.84	232	83
Tom Windle L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	16.7%	10.3%	1.8%	.228	4.13	19.3%	7.0%	105	+0.12	3.68	330	83
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	82
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	82
Michael Johnson L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	25	SU	4.67	18.2%	10.4%	3.3%	.352	4.72	17.4%	7.6%	129	+0.05	3.92	256	82
Cody Stull L 2017 · 4.73 FIP	25	SU	4.73	11.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.310	3.16	16.7%	8.1%	81	-1.57	2.57	264	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	18.1%	11.1%	1.10	4.90
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86