Oriel Castro — OGILVIE

Oriel Castro P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 175 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%22.7%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	12	1	10	50	14	13	0	8%	0.9	19.0%	32.5%	-13.5%	0.0%	5.23	5.61	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	12	1	10	50	14	13	0	8%	0.9	28.0%	26.0%	2.0%	0.0%	5.23	4.16	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	15	6	40	184	38	40	2	40%	2.7	14.0%	27.2%	-13.1%	1.5%	4.72	6.19	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	15	6	40	184	38	40	2	40%	2.7	20.7%	21.7%	-1.1%	1.1%	4.72	4.85	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	17	4	38	184	53	28	3	24%	2.2	19.6%	19.0%	0.6%	2.0%	5.45	4.95	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	17	4	38	184	53	28	3	24%	2.2	28.8%	15.2%	13.6%	1.6%	5.45	3.55	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	14	1	23	99	24	10	2	7%	1.7	16.5%	12.6%	3.9%	2.4%	3.09	4.63	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	14	1	23	99	24	10	2	7%	1.7	24.2%	10.1%	14.1%	2.0%	3.09	3.44	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	20	90	20	16	2	7%	1.3	16.0%	21.3%	-5.3%	3.6%	5.95	6.44	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	20	90	20	16	2	7%	1.3	16.0%	21.3%	-5.3%	3.6%	5.95	6.44	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	1	20	90	20	16	2	7%	1.3	22.2%	17.8%	4.4%	2.2%	5.95	4.83	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	CWS	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	22.7%	11.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CWS	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	3.0%	4.67	4.66	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	CWS	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	3.0%	4.67	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	3.0%	4.67	4.28	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	3.0%	4.67	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		73	13	131	607	102	133	12	18%	1.8	16.8%	21.9%	-5.1%	2.0%	4.87	5.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	20	200	924	156	202	18	18%	1.8	16.8%	21.9%	-5.1%	2.0%	4.87	5.55	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Oriel Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	22.7%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.66	22.9%	11.3%	20	-0.07	—	—	—
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	81
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	80
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	79
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	79
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	78
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	78
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	77
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	76
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	76
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	76
Russell Smith L 2023 · 5.26 FIP	24	SU	5.26	23.3%	12.8%	4.5%	.343	4.00	19.0%	5.1%	53	-1.26	4.00	175	75
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	75
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	75
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	75
Jake Miednik L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	25	SU	4.94	23.7%	11.7%	4.3%	.308	6.12	10.5%	-4.1%	32	+1.18	1.55	126	75
Jerry Vasto L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	22.2%	10.2%	3.0%	.382	3.52	24.0%	12.5%	38	-0.64	2.89	206	75
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	20.7%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.62	21.8%	11.1%	110	+0.65	3.96	265	75
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	75
Bryan Warzek L 2022 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	22.1%	15.0%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	1.91	138	75
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	74