Brandon Hughes

P Iowa Cubs

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	28	0	25	8.03	5.57	21.3%	13.1%	-0.3	K 20.3% · BB 12.4% · FIP 5.43
2024	28	MIX2 levels	55	2	66	3.66	4.38	24.5%	9.7%	0.1	K 22.1% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.54
2025	29	AAACHC	21	0	27	6.33	5.66	22.8%	9.4%	—	K 19.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 5.48
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBCHC	2	0	2	4.71	4.72	23.2%	9.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBCHC	7	0	7	4.75	4.86	22.4%	9.5%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%58

FB Velo21

xwOBA vs10

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Jeremy Bleich (age 31) · Brian Moran (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.72

K%23.2%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%14.1%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p7028.5%

p5823.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.451

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2018	22	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	16	64	26	6	1	0%	1.4	40.6%	9.4%	31.2%	1.6%	2.76	1.71	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	16	64	26	6	1	0%	1.4	40.6%	9.4%	31.2%	1.6%	2.76	1.81	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	42	175	60	17	4	0%	1.6	27.0%	11.1%	15.9%	2.7%	1.71	3.68	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	42	175	60	17	4	0%	1.6	34.3%	9.7%	24.6%	2.3%	1.71	2.70	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	67	0	74	297	90	21	11	0%	1.1	28.5%	7.5%	20.9%	4.8%	2.42	4.28	+0.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	67	0	74	297	90	21	11	0%	1.1	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	3.7%	2.42	3.45	+1.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	25	122	26	16	5	0%	0.9	20.3%	12.4%	7.9%	4.5%	8.03	5.43	-0.3
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	25	122	26	16	5	0%	0.9	21.3%	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	8.03	5.57	-0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	2	66	290	71	28	11	4%	1.2	22.1%	9.0%	13.0%	3.9%	3.66	4.54	+0.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	2	66	290	71	28	11	4%	1.2	22.1%	9.0%	13.0%	3.9%	3.66	4.54	+0.0
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	2	66	290	71	28	11	4%	1.2	24.5%	9.7%	14.8%	3.8%	3.66	4.38	+0.1
2025	29	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	21	0	27	127	29	12	7	0%	1.3	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	5.4%	6.33	5.48	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	21	0	27	127	29	12	7	0%	1.3	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	5.4%	6.33	5.48	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	21	0	27	127	29	12	7	0%	1.3	22.8%	9.4%	13.4%	5.5%	6.33	5.66	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			89	2	89	391	106	35	21	2%	1.0	27.1%	9.0%	18.2%	5.4%	4.75	4.97	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CHC	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	3.7%	4.71	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CHC	17	0	18	77	17	7	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.5%	13.0%	3.9%	4.83	4.94	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	CHC	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.5%	13.0%	3.8%	4.75	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	2	96	419	112	38	22	2%	1.0	26.8%	9.0%	17.8%	5.3%	4.75	4.86	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		199	4	200	876	234	79	46	2%	1.0	26.8%	9.0%	17.8%	5.3%	4.75	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		210	2	251	1076	271	100	44	1%	1.2	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	4.1%	3.62	4.37	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	2	200	857	216	80	35	1%	1.2	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	4.1%	3.62	4.37	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 27 IPFIP 5.39 → 5.48 (+0.08)K% 22.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.83%	—	×0.860	19.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.45%	—	×0.900	8.50%
HR / BF /BF	5.51%	÷1.125	×1.100	5.39%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 5.39 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 49 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.12 (+0.16)K% 24.9% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.88%	—	×0.860	21.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.96%	—	×0.900	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷1.124	×1.100	1.46%

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 11 IPFIP 6.54 → 6.91 (+0.38)K% 15.3% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.25%	—	×0.860	13.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.25%	—	×0.900	13.73%
HR / BF /BF	5.08%	÷0.965	×1.100	5.79%

Result: FIP 6.54 → 6.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 10 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.36 (+0.37)K% 33.3% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.880	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.050	5.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATennessee Smokies · 6 IPFIP -0.16 → 0.62 (+0.79)K% 45.5% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.45%	—	×0.810	36.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.100	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.010	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP -0.16 → 0.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATennessee Smokies · 31 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.68 (+0.85)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×1.100	11.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.050	×1.200	2.66%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+South Bend Cubs · 11 IPFIP 2.27 → 3.57 (+1.30)K% 37.0% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.96%	—	×0.770	28.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.150	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.928	×1.250	2.93%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Cubs 1 · 10 IPFIP 2.43 → 4.64 (+2.20)K% 44.7% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.74%	—	×0.680	30.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.16%	—	×1.250	16.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Hughes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	23.2%	9.1%	3.7%	—	4.94	22.4%	12.9%	18	+0.22	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	82
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	78
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	78
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	76
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	76
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	76
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	76
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	75
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	75
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	239	74
Colt Hynes L 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.75	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.20	3.42	169	74
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	74
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	73
Pedro Feliciano L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	21.1%	7.6%	2.9%	.309	3.02	22.1%	14.9%	122	-0.88	2.69	378	73
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	72
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	195	71
Brian Fuentes L 2007 · 3.68 FIP	31	SU	3.68	22.0%	9.0%	2.4%	.235	3.19	25.4%	16.4%	166	-0.49	2.08	602	69
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	69
Tommy Layne L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	31	SU	3.43	20.3%	9.6%	1.5%	.266	4.25	19.4%	10.0%	90	+0.82	0.55	218	69
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	43	25.8%	9.8%	1.90	4.76
Josh Osich ('21)	1.1	55	20.7%	9.0%	1.84	5.02
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Michael Feliz ('22)	1.2	50	29.9%	9.9%	1.55	5.29
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Jeff Jones ('80-'84, -2 WAR*)	1.0	41	22.0%*	12.4%*	1.48*	4.53*