Gabriel Cotto
P
Jersey Shore BlueClaws
Age 26
LHP
6'5" / 175 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%22.4%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 8 | 7 | 15 | 87 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 88% | 1.9 | 11.7% | 23.0% | -11.3% | 0.0% | 9.39 | 5.02 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 8 | 7 | 15 | 87 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 88% | 1.9 | 17.2% | 18.4% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 9.39 | 4.27 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 11 | 2 | 19 | 102 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 18% | 1.8 | 11.3% | 18.4% | -7.0% | 2.7% | 7.91 | 5.98 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 11 | 2 | 19 | 102 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 18% | 1.8 | 16.7% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 7.91 | 5.01 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 7 | 46 | 204 | 56 | 30 | 4 | 58% | 3.9 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.11 | 5.10 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 7 | 46 | 204 | 56 | 30 | 4 | 58% | 3.9 | 27.5% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 2.0% | 3.11 | 3.75 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 17 | 17 | 67 | 294 | 70 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 17.6% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 5.19 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 17 | 17 | 67 | 294 | 70 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 23.8% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 4.57 | 4.03 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 18 | 88 | 386 | 71 | 45 | 8 | 82% | 4.0 | 13.9% | 13.5% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 5.43 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 18 | 88 | 386 | 71 | 45 | 8 | 82% | 4.0 | 18.4% | 11.7% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 4.79 | 4.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 58 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 58 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 56 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 56 | 238 | 53 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 49 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 130 | 58 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.33 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 84 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 51 | 236 | 1073 | 168 | 171 | 30 | 73% | 3.4 | 15.6% | 15.9% | -0.3% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 5.32 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 43 | 200 | 908 | 142 | 145 | 25 | 73% | 3.4 | 15.6% | 15.9% | -0.3% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 5.32 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gabriel Cotto (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.58 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 176 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 82 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.39 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.13 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.74 | 3.39 | 300 | 80 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 78 |
| Avery Weems L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.13 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | .323 | 5.19 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.06 | 2.46 | 227 | 74 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 73 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .264 | 5.63 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.74 | 3.12 | 451 | 73 |
| Nico Tellache L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 73 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 72 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 72 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .268 | 5.21 | 12.2% | 0.1% | 54 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 232 | 71 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 71 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 71 |
| Anthony Kay L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.87 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .333 | 4.35 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 69 | -0.52 | 3.57 | 510 | 71 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 71 |
| Connor Oliver L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 71 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 70 |
| Jojo Ingrassia L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 26.7% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 112 | 69 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.67 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 1.1% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 288 | 69 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 69 |
| Zach Thornton L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 58 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 1.24 | 4.56 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |