Esmerlin Vinicio

Esmerlin Vinicio P Eugene Emeralds

+0.0 WAR

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 146 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.6%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%6.9%

IP52

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2028

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Giants Black	14	11	58	239	70	29	2	19.9%	15.2%	0.9%	2.64	3.85	+0.7
2022	19	A	San Jose Giants	28	5	53	243	59	32	4	17.6%	15.7%	2.0%	5.26	4.70	+0.1
2023	20	A	San Jose Giants	32	5	82	367	90	45	6	17.9%	14.4%	2.5%	4.72	4.78	+0.3
2024	21	A+	Eugene Emeralds	25	11	82	355	77	51	5	16.2%	16.8%	1.7%	4.72	4.81	+0.3
2025	22	A+	Eugene Emeralds	29	5	48	238	55	42	3	17.8%	20.3%	1.6%	6.14	5.05	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	3	0	5	16	6	1	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	SF	52	—	52	220	43	37	6	19.4%	16.8%	2.7%	5.45	5.45	-0.3
2026 Total	23	MLB	SF	—	—	57	236	49	38	6	20.6%	16.0%	2.5%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	SF	53	—	53	225	46	34	6	20.3%	15.0%	2.7%	5.22	5.15	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	SF	54	—	54	228	48	32	6	20.9%	13.9%	2.7%	5.04	4.96	-0.0
2029	26	MLB	SF	54	—	54	228	49	31	6	21.3%	13.6%	2.7%	4.95	4.90	+0.0
2030	27	MLB	SF	54	—	54	227	48	31	6	21.3%	13.5%	2.8%	4.92	4.90	+0.0
2031	28	MLB	SF	53	—	53	223	48	30	6	21.3%	13.6%	2.8%	4.92	4.93	+0.0
2032	29	MLB	SF	52	—	52	218	46	30	6	21.2%	13.6%	2.8%	4.95	4.97	-0.0
2033	30	MLB	SF	50	—	50	212	44	29	6	21.0%	13.7%	2.9%	5.00	5.03	-0.0
2034	31	MLB	SF	48	—	48	204	42	28	6	20.7%	13.9%	3.0%	5.07	5.11	-0.1
2035	32	MLB	SF	46	—	46	196	40	27	6	20.5%	14.0%	3.0%	5.15	5.20	-0.1
2036	33	MLB	SF	44	—	44	187	38	27	6	20.2%	14.2%	3.1%	5.24	5.29	-0.2
2037	34	MLB	SF	42	—	42	178	35	26	6	19.8%	14.4%	3.2%	5.34	5.40	-0.2
2038	35	MLB	SF	40	—	40	168	33	25	6	19.4%	14.6%	3.3%	5.45	5.53	-0.3
2039	36	MLB	SF	37	—	37	157	30	23	5	19.0%	14.9%	3.5%	5.58	5.66	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			131	37	328	1458	262	236	26	18.0%	16.2%	1.8%	4.58	4.62	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—			80	23	200	889	160	144	16	18.0%	16.2%	1.8%	4.58	4.62	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Esmerlin Vinicio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.45	19.4%	16.8%	2.7%	—	5.00	20.9%	6.7%	162	-0.45	—	—	—
Ty Madrigal L 2027 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.77	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.23	4.54	107	91
Braeden Fausnaught L 2027 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.62	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.15	4.46	242	89
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2025 · 4.47 FIP	22	SW	4.47	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.91	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.56	2.97	146	88
Joe Kemlage L 2026 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	19.4%	13.5%	2.2%	.278	5.32	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.91	4.41	128	87
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.60	24.1%	7.7%	60	-1.01	3.60	136	86
Chris Reed L 2028 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.70	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.22	4.70	137	84
Trevor Seidenberger L 2026 · 4.67 FIP	23	SU	4.67	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.31	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.64	4.67	101	84
Austin Hamilton L 2026 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.18	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.74	4.02	135	83
Jackson Lancaster L 2027 · 5.13 FIP	24	SU	5.13	18.9%	17.6%	2.5%	.315	4.27	21.1%	10.5%	82	-0.86	4.16	101	83
Dillon Larsen L 2027 · 5.84 FIP	24	SU	5.84	21.7%	21.6%	3.4%	.277	4.64	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.20	4.04	120	83
Felix Carvallo L 2025 · 4.52 FIP	22	SW	4.52	17.7%	13.0%	2.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	132	82
Evan Shawver L 2026 · 5.80 FIP	23	SW	5.80	15.9%	16.5%	3.6%	.327	4.27	19.0%	6.3%	102	-1.53	4.09	219	82
Gil Luna L 2027 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.96	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.41	4.57	113	82
Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.96 FIP	23	SW	4.96	19.7%	12.7%	3.5%	.300	4.72	22.7%	9.5%	152	-0.24	3.96	265	82
Joseph Menefee L 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.6%	.361	4.37	25.6%	8.2%	86	-0.13	3.19	134	82
Jeff Belge L 2026 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.71	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.21	3.32	175	81
Ben Harris L 2026 · 4.73 FIP	23	SW	4.73	25.4%	21.9%	1.8%	.252	5.44	22.9%	1.7%	76	+0.71	3.06	183	81
Graham Osman L 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SW	4.33	17.8%	19.0%	0.6%	.307	5.82	15.1%	-2.3%	56	+1.49	4.33	122	81
Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.35 FIP	23	SW	4.35	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.49	18.6%	0.1%	50	+2.14	4.35	129	81
Juan Pichardo L 2026 · 4.82 FIP	23	SU	4.82	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	81

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.