Esmerlin Vinicio
P
Eugene Emeralds
Age 23
LHP
6'1" / 146 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138147vR 157
ERA6.16
FIP6.16
K%16.4%
BB%20.3%
K-BB%-3.9%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 14 | 11 | 58 | 239 | 70 | 29 | 2 | 79% | 4.1 | 19.9% | 15.2% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 2.64 | 3.78 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 14 | 11 | 58 | 239 | 70 | 29 | 2 | 79% | 4.1 | 29.3% | 12.1% | 17.2% | 0.8% | 2.64 | 2.63 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 5 | 53 | 243 | 59 | 32 | 4 | 18% | 1.9 | 17.6% | 15.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 5.26 | 4.65 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 5 | 53 | 243 | 59 | 32 | 4 | 18% | 1.9 | 24.3% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 1.6% | 5.26 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 5 | 82 | 367 | 90 | 45 | 6 | 16% | 2.6 | 17.9% | 14.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 5.01 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 5 | 82 | 367 | 90 | 45 | 6 | 16% | 2.6 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 1.6% | 4.72 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 11 | 82 | 355 | 77 | 51 | 5 | 44% | 3.3 | 16.2% | 16.8% | -0.6% | 1.7% | 4.72 | 4.80 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 11 | 82 | 355 | 77 | 51 | 5 | 44% | 3.3 | 21.7% | 14.4% | 7.3% | 1.4% | 4.72 | 3.88 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 29 | 5 | 48 | 238 | 55 | 42 | 3 | 17% | 1.7 | 17.8% | 20.3% | -2.5% | 1.6% | 6.14 | 5.07 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 29 | 5 | 48 | 238 | 55 | 42 | 3 | 17% | 1.7 | 23.1% | 17.6% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 6.14 | 4.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 18 | 2 | 40 | 178 | 48 | 20 | 2 | 11% | 2.2 | 20.8% | 12.9% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 3.35 | 3.75 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SF | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 36 | 45 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 20.3% | -3.9% | 2.7% | 6.16 | 6.16 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.4% | 20.3% | -3.9% | 2.7% | 6.16 | 6.16 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SF | — | — | 93 | 399 | 84 | 65 | 8 | — | — | 21.1% | 16.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 4.94 | 5.11 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.4% | 20.3% | -3.9% | 2.7% | 6.16 | 5.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 40 | 40 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 5.81 | 5.70 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 43 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SF | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 44 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 15.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 5.39 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 5.81 | 5.70 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 5.41 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SF | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 35 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 15.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 5.39 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 0 | 103 | 433 | 81 | 70 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 16.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.54 | 5.07 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 158 | 136 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 16.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.54 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 146 | 39 | 364 | 1620 | 293 | 258 | 30 | 27% | 2.5 | 18.1% | 15.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 4.50 | 4.60 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 21 | 200 | 891 | 161 | 142 | 16 | 27% | 2.5 | 18.1% | 15.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 4.50 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Esmerlin Vinicio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.16 | 16.4% | 20.3% | 2.7% | — | 5.48 | 18.5% | 2.2% | 162 | -0.68 | — | — | — |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.70 | 15.9% | 16.5% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.09 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 142 | -1.61 | 4.01 | 258 | 83 |
| Nicolo Pinazzi L 2026 · 6.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.69 | 19.3% | 26.9% | 3.3% | .307 | 2.70 | 28.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -3.99 | 2.70 | 122 | 79 |
| Kikito Severino L 2024 · 5.70 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.70 | 11.9% | 19.5% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 135 | 78 |
| Bryan Warzek L 2025 · 5.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.96 | 17.7% | 24.4% | 2.3% | .328 | 6.90 | 20.2% | 1.9% | 73 | +0.94 | 1.84 | 138 | 77 |
| Bryan King L 2027 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.31 | 17.4% | 17.8% | 2.6% | .317 | 2.89 | 24.7% | 14.5% | 77 | -2.42 | 2.49 | 226 | 77 |
| Garrett Williams L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.24 | 14.5% | 16.2% | 2.4% | .335 | 4.43 | 19.3% | 4.5% | 162 | -0.81 | 3.36 | 470 | 76 |
| Max Roberts L 2027 · 5.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.07 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.0% | .330 | 4.59 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 115 | -0.48 | 4.03 | 173 | 76 |
| Max Herrmann L 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 15.0% | 17.9% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.45 | 12.2% | 0.8% | 152 | -0.64 | 3.92 | 168 | 75 |
| Matt Minnick L 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.59 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.65 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 105 | -0.94 | 3.77 | 147 | 75 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.61 | 12.6% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .266 | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 101 | -1.53 | 3.54 | 146 | 75 |
| Hayden Frank L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 75 |
| Gerardo Concepción L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.35 | 14.0% | 18.5% | 2.0% | .352 | 4.75 | 16.9% | 6.5% | 60 | -0.60 | 4.75 | 104 | 74 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.05 | 18.9% | 17.6% | 2.4% | .315 | 4.92 | 19.3% | 7.1% | 107 | -0.13 | 4.28 | 127 | 74 |
| Chris Nunn L 2027 · 5.94 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.94 | 13.9% | 16.8% | 3.4% | .350 | 3.97 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 37 | -1.97 | 3.26 | 180 | 73 |
| José Manuel Fernández L 2026 · 6.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.36 | 16.4% | 19.7% | 3.9% | .211 | 4.71 | 17.7% | 6.4% | 168 | -1.65 | 3.35 | 263 | 73 |
| Miguel Flores L 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.07 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 2.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 144 | 72 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2029 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.34 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.09 | 3.46 | 154 | 72 |
| Tyler Matzek L 2027 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.38 | 17.7% | 23.2% | 1.5% | .256 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 0.9% | 21 | -0.51 | 1.60 | 190 | 72 |
| Adrian Almeida L 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.53 | 19.1% | 24.5% | 1.7% | .223 | 5.03 | 19.9% | -4.6% | 59 | -0.50 | 4.24 | 188 | 72 |
| Steve Hajjar L 2026 · 6.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.73 | 15.0% | 25.6% | 3.0% | .150 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 141 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 18.0% | 17.3% | 1.06 | 5.72 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |