Esmerlin Vinicio

Esmerlin Vinicio P Eugene Emeralds

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 146 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135143vR 151

ERA6.21

FIP6.21

K%16.4%

BB%20.8%

K-BB%-4.3%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	14	11	58	239	70	29	2	79%	4.1	19.9%	15.2%	4.7%	1.0%	2.64	3.87	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	14	11	58	239	70	29	2	79%	4.1	29.3%	12.1%	17.2%	0.8%	2.64	2.63	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	5	53	243	59	32	4	18%	1.9	17.6%	15.7%	1.9%	2.0%	5.26	4.71	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	5	53	243	59	32	4	18%	1.9	24.3%	13.2%	11.1%	1.6%	5.26	3.67	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	5	82	367	90	45	6	16%	2.6	17.9%	14.4%	3.4%	2.5%	4.72	4.82	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	5	82	367	90	45	6	16%	2.6	17.9%	14.4%	3.4%	2.5%	4.72	4.82	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	5	82	367	90	45	6	16%	2.6	24.5%	12.3%	12.3%	1.6%	4.72	3.50	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	11	82	355	77	51	5	44%	3.3	16.2%	16.8%	-0.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.81	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	11	82	355	77	51	5	44%	3.3	16.2%	16.8%	-0.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.81	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	11	82	355	77	51	5	44%	3.3	21.7%	14.4%	7.3%	1.4%	4.72	3.88	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	29	5	48	238	55	42	3	17%	1.7	17.8%	20.3%	-2.5%	1.6%	6.14	5.05	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	29	5	48	238	55	42	3	17%	1.7	17.8%	20.3%	-2.5%	1.6%	6.14	5.05	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	29	5	48	238	55	42	3	17%	1.7	23.1%	17.6%	5.5%	1.3%	6.14	4.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	2	63	280	74	33	3	7%	2.2	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	1.3%	3.41	3.79	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	2	63	280	74	33	3	7%	2.2	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	1.3%	3.41	3.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	SF	23	2	52	227	60	23	3	9%	2.2	26.4%	10.1%	16.3%	1.3%	3.14	2.88	—
2026	23	AA RAW	SF	6	0	12	53	14	10	0	0%	1.9	26.4%	18.9%	7.5%	0.0%	4.63	3.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	72	0	76	319	57	57	9	0%	1.0	17.8%	17.9%	-0.1%	2.7%	5.85	5.73	-1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	73	0	76	323	60	52	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	16.1%	2.5%	2.7%	5.56	5.44	-0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	73	0	76	323	62	51	9	0%	1.0	19.1%	15.7%	3.4%	2.7%	5.42	5.36	-0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	72	0	75	318	61	50	9	0%	1.0	19.2%	15.6%	3.5%	2.8%	5.38	5.37	-0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	70	0	73	309	59	49	9	0%	1.0	19.1%	15.8%	3.3%	2.9%	5.43	5.46	-0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	66	0	70	295	55	47	9	0%	1.1	18.8%	16.0%	2.8%	3.0%	5.52	5.59	-0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	62	0	66	277	51	45	9	0%	1.1	18.5%	16.3%	2.2%	3.2%	5.67	5.76	-0.9
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	31	0	33	139	25	25	4	0%	1.1	17.8%	17.9%	-0.1%	2.7%	5.85	5.73	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	49	0	51	215	40	35	6	0%	1.0	18.6%	16.1%	2.5%	2.7%	5.56	5.44	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	58	0	61	258	49	40	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	15.7%	3.4%	2.7%	5.42	5.36	-0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	61	0	64	270	52	42	8	0%	1.0	19.2%	15.6%	3.5%	2.8%	5.38	5.37	-0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	62	0	65	274	52	43	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	15.8%	3.3%	2.9%	5.43	5.46	-0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	60	0	63	266	50	43	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	16.0%	2.8%	3.0%	5.52	5.59	-0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	57	0	60	253	47	41	8	0%	1.1	18.5%	16.3%	2.2%	3.2%	5.67	5.76	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		378	0	397	1677	315	270	49	0%	1.1	18.8%	16.1%	2.7%	2.9%	5.52	5.14	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	136	25	0%	1.1	18.8%	16.1%	2.7%	2.9%	5.52	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		157	39	387	1722	313	273	30	25%	2.5	18.2%	15.8%	2.4%	1.8%	4.45	4.53	-5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	20	200	891	162	141	16	25%	2.5	18.2%	15.8%	2.4%	1.8%	4.45	4.53	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Esmerlin Vinicio (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.21	16.4%	20.8%	2.7%	—	5.51	18.5%	1.9%	229	-0.70	—	—	—
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	83
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	80
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	79
Kikito Severino L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SW	5.78	11.9%	19.5%	2.2%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	135	78
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	78
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	77
Bryan Warzek L 2019 · 5.92 FIP	22	SW	5.92	17.7%	24.4%	2.2%	.328	6.74	20.2%	1.9%	73	+0.82	1.91	138	77
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	76
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	76
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	76
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	76
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	75
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	75
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	75
Garrett Williams L 2018 · 5.04 FIP	23	SW	5.04	14.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.335	4.33	19.3%	4.5%	162	-0.71	3.37	470	74
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	73
Adrian Almeida L 2018 · 5.49 FIP	23	SU	5.49	19.1%	24.5%	1.6%	.223	5.10	19.9%	-4.6%	59	-0.39	4.27	188	73
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	73
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	72
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	71	18.5%	16.6%	1.10	5.61
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59