Luichi Casilla — OGILVIE

Luichi Casilla P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%22.7%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	7	7	23	97	28	11	0	100%	3.2	19.6%	14.2%	5.5%	0.0%	1.19	3.24	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	7	7	23	97	28	11	0	100%	3.2	28.9%	11.3%	17.5%	0.0%	1.19	2.09	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	10	41	175	44	16	1	91%	3.7	17.1%	11.4%	5.7%	0.7%	3.32	3.49	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	10	41	175	44	16	1	91%	3.7	17.1%	11.4%	5.7%	0.7%	3.32	3.49	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	10	41	175	44	16	1	91%	3.7	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	0.6%	3.32	2.44	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	12	7	36	173	57	28	2	58%	3.0	22.4%	20.2%	2.2%	1.6%	7.00	4.62	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	12	7	36	173	57	28	2	58%	3.0	22.4%	20.2%	2.2%	1.6%	7.00	4.62	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	12	7	36	173	57	28	2	58%	3.0	32.9%	16.2%	16.8%	1.2%	7.00	2.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	13	8	34	151	54	12	1	62%	2.6	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	0.9%	4.01	2.62	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	13	8	34	151	54	12	1	62%	2.6	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	0.9%	4.01	2.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	COL	7	2	13	64	20	4	0	29%	1.9	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	5.40	1.25	—
2026	21	A RAW	COL	6	6	20	87	34	8	1	100%	3.4	39.1%	9.2%	29.9%	1.1%	3.10	1.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	COL	7	7	35	146	35	19	4	100%	4.9	23.6%	13.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.75	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	COL	3	3	17	72	17	10	2	100%	5.7	23.6%	13.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.75	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	72	17	10	2	100%	5.7	23.6%	13.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	200	118	24	100%	5.1	23.6%	13.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		43	32	133	596	126	83	5	74%	3.1	21.2%	14.0%	7.3%	0.9%	4.13	3.56	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	48	200	896	190	125	8	74%	3.1	21.2%	14.0%	7.3%	0.9%	4.13	3.56	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luichi Casilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	22.7%	15.4%	2.9%	—	4.75	23.6%	10.4%	35	-0.39	—	—	—
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	82
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.4%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	81
Develson Aria L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	21	SP-	4.32	19.9%	12.2%	2.5%	.346	6.47	16.7%	-11.9%	47	+2.15	4.32	137	80
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	79
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	78
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	77
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	77
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	74
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.24	24.9%	6.8%	152	-0.42	2.97	282	74
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	73
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	73
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	73
Eric Dominguez L 2023 · 4.28 FIP	20	SP-	4.28	24.3%	16.1%	2.2%	.371	4.07	20.4%	7.5%	85	-0.21	3.81	140	73
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	72
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	72
Fernando Sanchez L 2022 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP	4.17	24.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.318	3.93	17.7%	6.9%	213	-0.24	3.09	332	72
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	72
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	72
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	71
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	23.3%	14.1%	1.13	4.98
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64