Luichi Casilla

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	18	ROKDSL Colorado	11	10	41	3.32	2.44	25.1%	9.1%	—	K 17.1% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.49
2024	19	ROKCOL	12	7	36	7.00	2.99	32.9%	16.2%	—	K 22.4% · BB 20.2% · FIP 4.62
2026	21	MIX2 levels	13	8	34	4.01	1.35	35.8%	7.9%	—	K 25.7% · BB 9.6% · FIP 2.62
2027PROJ	22	MLBCOL	—	—	0	4.32	4.32	24.9%	10.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCOL	3	3	15	4.22	4.15	25.5%	10.0%	0.2

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsTommy Sommer (age 22) · Jordan Woods (age 20) · Jimmy Robbins (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.32

FIP4.32

K%24.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%14.1%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	7	7	23	97	28	11	0	100%	3.2	19.6%	14.2%	5.5%	0.0%	1.19	3.24	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	7	7	23	97	28	11	0	100%	3.2	28.9%	11.3%	17.5%	0.0%	1.19	2.09	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	10	41	175	44	16	1	91%	3.7	17.1%	11.4%	5.7%	0.7%	3.32	3.49	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	10	41	175	44	16	1	91%	3.7	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	0.6%	3.32	2.44	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	12	7	36	173	57	28	2	58%	3.0	22.4%	20.2%	2.2%	1.6%	7.00	4.62	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	12	7	36	173	57	28	2	58%	3.0	22.4%	20.2%	2.2%	1.6%	7.00	4.62	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	12	7	36	173	57	28	2	58%	3.0	32.9%	16.2%	16.8%	1.2%	7.00	2.99	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	8	34	151	54	12	1	62%	2.6	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	0.9%	4.01	2.62	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	8	34	151	54	12	1	62%	2.6	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	0.9%	4.01	2.62	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	8	34	151	54	12	1	62%	2.6	35.8%	7.9%	27.8%	0.7%	4.01	1.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	2.9%	4.32	4.32	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	COL	6	6	31	133	34	13	4	100%	5.2	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.8%	4.22	4.15	+0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	COL	3	3	15	63	16	6	2	100%	5.0	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.8%	4.22	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	65	17	6	2	100%	5.1	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.8%	4.22	3.77	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	220	78	26	100%	5.3	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.8%	4.22	3.77	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		43	32	133	596	126	83	5	74%	3.1	21.2%	14.0%	7.3%	0.9%	4.13	3.56	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	48	200	896	190	125	8	74%	3.1	21.2%	14.0%	7.3%	0.9%	4.13	3.56	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 20 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.85 (+1.26)K% 39.1% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.08%	—	×0.740	28.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.180	10.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Rockies · 13 IPFIP 1.25 → 2.30 (+1.04)K% 31.2% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.680	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.250	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.25 → 2.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rockies · 36 IPFIP 3.00 → 4.62 (+1.62)K% 32.9% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.95%	—	×0.680	22.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.18%	—	×1.250	20.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.044	×1.400	1.55%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Colorado · 41 IPFIP 2.45 → 3.49 (+1.04)K% 25.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.14%	—	×0.680	17.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.14%	—	×1.250	11.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷1.146	×1.400	0.70%

Result: FIP 2.45 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Colorado · 23 IPFIP 2.10 → 3.24 (+1.14)K% 28.9% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.87%	—	×0.680	19.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.34%	—	×1.250	14.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.271	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.10 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luichi Casilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	24.9%	10.8%	2.9%	—	4.15	25.5%	15.5%	31	-0.17	—	—	—
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	81
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	77
Bryan Sammons L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP-	3.58	22.7%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	3.96	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.38	3.58	688	76
Yereny Teus L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	20	SP	3.57	23.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.276	3.33	24.6%	10.0%	88	-0.24	2.63	185	76
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	76
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	75
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	75
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	75
Dana Eveland L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP-	4.00	22.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.385	3.97	14.8%	4.3%	212	-0.03	2.42	544	74
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	74
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	74
Antonio Bastardo L 2009 · 4.73 FIP	23	SP	4.73	17.9%	8.5%	3.8%	.297	3.04	33.0%	22.1%	129	-1.69	2.47	404	72
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	72
Keyshawn Askew L 2022 · 3.32 FIP	22	SW	3.32	25.6%	12.2%	1.5%	.274	3.81	20.7%	5.5%	196	+0.49	3.32	262	72
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	72
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	71
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	71
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	71
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	25.3%	10.3%	1.10	4.26
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*